Texans Are All Smiles After Jaguars Hand Huge Contract To Josh Allen

There's much celebration around the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wednesday because the club just locked up one of its star players, defensive end Josh Allen, to a mammoth contract that makes him one of the highest paid edge rushers in the NFL.

The completion of that deal, to be signed this week, is an accomplishment because it's been in the works for months.

So why might the Houston Texans be watching this and smiling?

What's with the mischievous Cheshire Cat grin from Jacksonville's AFC South rival?

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 31: Josh Allen #41 of the Jacksonville Jaguars celebrates his sack of Bryce Young #9 of the Carolina Panthers during the first half of the game at EverBank Stadium on December 31, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

Josh Allen Gets Near Record Deal

Well, because Allen getting a $150 million contract over five seasons that includes $88 million in guaranteed money is great, satisfying work for the Jaguars and a great reward for Allen.

But it makes the point how much better positioned the Texans are than the Jaguars on a comparative championship window arc. 

And if you extend that out to the entire AFC South, yes, it applies to every team in the division as well.

The Texans are in great shape on talent. They're in great shape on the salary cap. They're in great shape at quarterback, which happens to be the sport's most important position.

The Texans, in short, are better positioned than the Jaguars, Titans and Colts to continue being successful in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

Those are reasons to smile.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Doug Pederson of the Jacksonville Jaguars talks with C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans after a game at NRG Stadium on November 26, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images)

Texans In Great Spot

And it's not really much of a debate because Houston won the division last year and seems stronger now.

Why?

Consider that if Allen's reported contract is accurate, he becomes only the second edge rusher in the league making $30 million per season on average, behind only Nick Bosa of the 49ers.

Allen has earned that perch because he collected a career-high and franchise-record 17.5 sacks last season. Did I mention the Texans also signed a productive edge rusher this offseason?

They added Danielle Hunter as a free agent after he collected 16.5 sacks last season for the Minnesota Vikings. And for that one less sack Hunter had, the Texans are paying him $24.5 million per season for two years.

The Texans can easily argue they got the bigger bargain, spending $5.5 million less on a season average for two years, for one less sack. 

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. (Getty Images)

Trevor Lawrence Raise Looms

The Jaguars, meanwhile, view this as a big win because they hadn't been able to sign Allen to a long term deal previously, so they had used the franchise tag on him.

That fully guaranteed $24 million tag goes away now and the new contract will likely yield some salary cap relief in the short term. So the Jaguars can use the extra cap space to sign quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a whopping contract extension sometime in the summer.

Lawrence is scheduled to enter the final season of his rookie deal in '24 and the Jaguars might place a fifth-year option on him in by May as a placeholder to a full blown extension before the start of the regular season.

And that's the point. The Jaguars are in a window where they have now begun paying their best players big bucks and that will soon include their quarterback.

The Jaguars have to be prepared to have cap space in future years, probably starting in 2025, to fit in a big extension for the QB. 

HOUSTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 13: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans celebrates as he runs onto the field during player introductions before an AFC wild-card playoff football game against the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium on January 13, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

Stroud A Bargain Now

Compare that to the Texans: C.J. Stroud is about to begin his second season and is scheduled to count $8.2 million on the club's cap. Even after Stroud gets his big extension, the Texans won't feel that huge salary cap burden until 2028 if they write the contract to maximize space. 

Stop chuckling, Texans!

Fact is the Texans, division champions last year and the only team in the division to win double-digit games, have no players counting more than $26 million on their cap in 2024.

Aside from perennial Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, the Texans have zero players with a cap number above $14 million. Stefon Diggs, the receiver they just acquired in a much heralded trade with the Bills, counts a modest $5.8 million on their cap in 2024.

Stop with the toothy grin, Texans!

The Jaguars already have four players counting more than $14 million on their cap and that does not yet include Lawrence whose payday looms.

And with respect to Lawrence, Stroud is simply better right now. That's not an opinion, but rather what the tape from a year ago says without equivocation.

Stroud posted a 100.8 rating in 2023, which is higher than Lawrence has reached in any of his three seasons. Stroud's 273.9 passing yards per game led all quarterbacks with more than eight starts.

And, yes, Stroud helped a surprisingly cohesive Texans team into the playoffs despite notable injuries at wide receiver. Lawrence, meanwhile, had something of a fallback year in which he struggled with injuries. 

Titans QB Will Levis. (Getty Images)

Colts, Titans QB Uncertainty

This is not to pick on Lawrence.

The fact is the Texans have a better QB situation than the Titans and the Colts, too. Both those teams have second-year starters, like the Texans, so both have favorable cap situations at QB. But unlike Houston, neither Will Levis nor Anthony Richardson are proven to any great degree.

And the differences don't stop at quarterback.  

The Colts currently have approximately $7 million less cap space than the Texans, primarily because they've got seven players accounting for double-digit millions cap numbers. 

The Colts are accounting for $25.2 million in cap space to Quenton Nelson which is almost as much as the $25.8 million in cap space the Texans have allowed for Tunsil. So the Colts are taking up almost as much cap space for a Pro Bowl guard as what the Texans are using on a Pro Bowl left tackle.

The Titans enjoy the most cap space of any team in the division at around $30.8 million. But they also have the steepest climb to contention of any AFC South team after finishing last and being the only club under .500 in 2023.

So, yes, big day for the Jaguars in doing fruitful work with Josh Allen's contract. But it did little to stop all that smiling in Houston.