Tee Higgins Franchise Tag Conspiracy Theory Is Off The Mark
When Tee Higgins signed his franchise tag tender with the Cincinnati Bengals over the weekend, it seemingly settled one of the team's lingering business transactions of the offseason.
Higgins is on the books for a guaranteed $21.8 million in 2024.
But why now? What about the timing of this decision to sign mere days after the Bengals completed all their offseason work?
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 10: Tee Higgins attends Verizon’s "Run the Playlist Live" at Super Bowl LVIII on February 10, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Schear/Getty Images for Verizon)
A Theory That Misses The Mark
That question prompted Pro Football Talk to share a theory why Higgins signed his tag now:
"…He ran the risk that the Bengal (website needs better editing) would have rescinded the tender and made him an unrestricted free agent — at a time when the money has been spent and the depth charts have been set. (It has happened three times before.)
"Yes, he would have landed somewhere. But it would have been hard to get $21.8 million for this year, or a long-term deal anywhere close to the top of the market."
Interesting. And wrong.
On multiple levels.
Firstly, the timing of Higgins signing now is actually something of a Hail Mary to get a long-term deal from the Bengals or get traded and perhaps get the long-term contract elsewhere.
Signing the franchise tag now makes Higgins eligible for both possibilities.
Higgins is hoping that maybe something can happen before July 15, after which he cannot negotiate a long-term deal with the Bengals and has to play on the franchise tag.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) and wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) talk on the sideline in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 3 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Monday, Sept. 25, 2023. The Bengals beat the Rams, 19-16, improving to 1-2.
Tee Higgins Not Afraid Of Free Agency
So this isn't about being afraid the Bengals are going to lift the tag. Higgins would probably throw a party if the Bengals lifted that tag and let him become a free agent at any point.
Why? Because he would absolutely get paid.
Firstly, the Bengals, plural, have stated publicly their intention of having Higgins on their team in 2024. They probably have only one more year in which they can chase a Super Bowl title with Joe Burrow throwing the football to a stud receiver combination of Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins.
Their messaging this offseason has been that they intend to avail themselves of that ability.
But if – enormous if – the Bengals decide they can use the $21.8 million in cap relief and could add a valuable draft pick for Higgins, and still sign a free agent now (Hunter Renfrow?), they couldn't do any of that without Higgins signing the franchise tag.
So, if the Bengals have merely been saying Higgins is in their plans for public consumption with the underlying intention of having him sign the tag and then trading him, the ball is now in their court. Higgins smartly just put it there.
And then there is the PFT idea that other teams have spent all their money and set their rosters, so there would be no market for Higgins.
Really?
Jun 12, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) and quarterback Jacob y Brissett (14) throw passes at minicamp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
The Market For Tee Higgins
The New England Patriots, who could use an upgrade at wide receiver, have $46.7 million in salary cap space right now, per the NFL Players Association public report.
You don't think they would like the idea of having Drake Maye throw to Tee Higgins at some point?
The Washington Commanders boast $44.4 million in cap space. Their need at receiver is not urgent but new general manager Adam Peters is a fan of adding talent whenever opportunity knocks. And a trade to land Higgins is a big clanging cymbol banging on the door.
The Arizona Cardinals, who drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. in the first round, have around $21 million in cap space. With all respect to Michael Wilson and Zay Jones, can you imagine Harrison and Higgins catching passes from Kyler Murray?
The Chargers have nearly $23 million in cap space. Higgins would instantly be their most accomplished receiver.
These teams have or can easily create enough cap space to fit a sizable Higgins contract on their books this year and beyond.
The Patriots project $91 million in cap space for next year. The Cardinals project approximately $77 million. The Commanders project approximately $78.5 million and the Chargers project approximately $44 million in 2025 cap space.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - JANUARY 07: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings runs the ball up the field after a catch during the first half of a game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on January 07, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images)
Big WR Contract Can Be Cap Friendly
The fact is, signing a top receiver to a long-term deal can be something of a cap-friendly proposition for the first couple of years.
Justin Jefferson, for example, just signed a five-year extension that makes him the NFL's highest paid non-quarterback. The deal is worth $140 million with $88.7 million of that fully guaranteed.
His cap charge for 2024 is $8.6 million, or about 3.3 percent of the Vikings' salary cap. Jefferson's cap charge next season is $15.16 million, or about 5.8 percent of the Vikings' cap.
Many of these enormous receiver contracts generally don't take up a double-digit percentage of the team's cap until the third season. We're talking 2026.
Now, it is true Higgins would have a hard time matching the cash payout on his franchise tag in 2024. PFT is correct about that.
Jefferson is getting approximately $38 million in cash payout this season, but Higgins isn't getting anywhere near that deal.
But that's not the point. Higgins wants a long-term deal, not a one-year cash boon. His representation has wanted to extract an extension from the Bengals for some time without success.
Now that Higgins has signed his franchise tag, it makes a long-term deal a possibility that operationally could not happen before.
So what is actually on the table now is the Bengals can sign Higgins to a long-term deal (however unlikely) or trade Higgins if they wish (they've said they don't wish). If the Bengals were of that mind, there are indeed teams with both a need and the salary cap room to land Higgins.
So Higgins signing his franchise tag now is a Hail Mary to do better. The timing made sense for him.