NFL Teams See Negative Effects Of NIL and Transfer Portal On This Draft

NFL scouts were working overtime and personnel departments across the league were burning the proverbial midnight oil prior to the draft three years ago, because there was simply so much talent to evaluate.

A record number of underclassmen – 130 in all – declared for that 2021 draft. And that unusually high number bloating what was already a solid draft class had NFL teams overloaded with work.

The 2024 draft that begins Thursday night is different.

NFL Feels NIL Pinch

And by different we mean worse, based on what NFL teams are saying. Because all that welcome underclassman talent is in very short supply this year.

This year only 58 underclassmen declared for the draft. That's the smallest number since 2011.

Why?

NFL teams say it's the money found in the NIL system in colleges and the opportunities of the transfer portal. 

That NIL money and the opportunities of extending a career at a new school have led to fewer players feeling the need to turn pro. Some return for their junior year. Some become so-called super seniors.

And the NFL draft suffers.

"I was just looking at my notes and, like, one interesting thing to me, dynamic in the way of the world right now, is we put a grade on players in the fall if we think there's a more than 50-percent chance that they're going to be in this draft," San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said during his pre-draft press conference on Monday. 

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 11: General Manager John Lynch of the San Francisco 49ers reacts before Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium on February 11, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

John Lynch: 83 Players Stayed In College

Lynch said 83 players the 49ers put a grade on decided not to declare for this draft. So, instead of having draftable grades on more than 250 players, the 49ers instead have 170 players with draftable grades.

"So thinking there's more than a 50-percent chance they're entering the draft are back in college because of NIL and things like that." Lynch said.

That's a lot of talent that typically would be in this draft that begins Thursday but is instead going to be playing on Saturdays next season. 

And, according to Lynch, some of those are future household names because 35 of those players out of the 83 that went back to school were given starter grades by the 49ers.

"That's a significant amount," Lynch said. "And how that affects this draft, it's going to be interesting."

Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, left, and General Manager and Executive Vice President Eric DeCosta talk about their final picks of the 2022 draft. (Kevin Richardson/The Baltimore Sun/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Less Talent In The Draft

The crazy thing is the 49ers may be understating the numbers of players staying in school. Giants GM Joe Schoen said last week that the team’s assistant director of player personnel Dennis Hickey told him 170 players with draftable grades opted not to declare for the draft.

"I think [it’s] because of COVID partly, and because of NIL – this whole draft landscape has changed," said Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta. "There are less players in the draft this year. There are less probably ‘draftable’ players this year on our board.

"[There are] less juniors [and] less underclassmen…"

This then becomes a math problem for NFL teams. Although there are generally fewer draftable players – about 170 by some estimates – there are nonetheless the same number of picks as usual.

That number this year is 257. 

That means that sometime late in the fifth round, some teams could plausibly run out of players on their board they wish to select.

Is Brock Purdy a legit farmer? (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Purdy Was 2022 Draft's Final Pick

"I think the later rounds probably are going to be lacking," Lynch said. "So it's a new dynamic that, I imagine we're going to be faced with each year. 

"You can go back and make a million dollars. I don't know if that's the going rate, but it is providing competition and that's a significant amount of players."

Lynch saying this is intriguing because his team is the poster child for maximizing late-round picks. You'll recall that Brock Purdy was the last pick of the 2022 draft for San Francisco.

And, yet, he is their starting quarterback.

NIL numbers are not publicly shared. And they are not standardized in any way like minimum pay in the NFL based on experience or the rookie wage scale.

So there's a running joke among some scouts, coaches and evaluators.

Some players may take a pay cut to go the NFL.

NFL Has Never Loved Competitors

This part, however, is not so funny: DeCosta said some teams, insinuating perhaps his own, may try to find ways to deal away late-round picks for future picks. The point is a late-round pick isn't so valuable when there are fewer (or any) players worthy of using them on.

The problem with that thinking is other teams generally see the lack of talent, too. And it takes at least another team that sees value in a late-round pick to make a trade.

So teams may simply be stuck with draft picks they don't want.

There's no telling if this year's phenomenon is a sign of things to come. But this much is certain: The NFL understands it now has some competition for some of its talent now.

And the NFL generally doesn't love competition.