NFL Quarterback Derby Begins And This Is How It Looks When 2024 Season Opens

The NFL's 2024 quarterback derby isn't just a race for talent or a job search, it's a puzzle that requires setting Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and nearly a dozen other quarterbacks with the right teams – such as the Vikings, Steelers, Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Patriots and others.

Quarterbacks need teams and teams need them. And while that puzzle will begin to take shape starting Monday at the latest, what's the fun in waiting? 

So let's connect the dots now and see what quarterback is going to be the season-opening starter for which team. We're going to do this based on what we've heard whispered among teams, personnel people, coaches, agents and others. And based on, well, some instincts, too.

Start with Cousins and the Falcons. That stuff is real. Cousins wanted to stay with the Vikings, but he wanted a level of commitment beyond one year that the Vikings apparently haven't been willing to offer. 

The Falcons seem willing to (at the very least) negotiate that commitment as to contract length and guaranteed money. Cousins and head coach Raheem Morris share a familiarity dating back to their Washington Redskins days. 

And Falcons owner Arthur Blank, 81, wants a quarterback that can win now rather than an unproven veteran or inexperienced draft prospect that may not win for years.

The question here is what happens to these two parties – Cousins and the Falcons – if the plan somehow falls apart?

Then it gets problematic for both. 

Denver Broncos QB Russell Wilson reportedly wants Sean Payton as the team's new coach. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)

Russell Wilson To Vikings Makes Sense

Vikings: If Cousins leaves, the Vikings obviously need a new starter and this is where Russell Wilson comes into play. He can still play, people. He is accurate. And his moon balls and ability to find time in the pocket fit the Justin Jefferson game very well. There's also the attractive idea that Wilson won't cost the Vikings a ton of money, at least in 2024. The Broncos owe him $39 million, so Wilson can sign for the veteran minimum as long as he gets a couple of years afterward to make it work in the Twin Cities. The Steelers are also interested in Wilson, but not necessarily as the presumptive starter. For the Vikings, who have to author an extension for Jefferson and might be interested in re-signing Danielle Hunter, that could help some. 

Bears: This one is pretty easy. It's going to be Caleb Williams. The Bears will select him with the No. 1 overall pick in the April draft and stick him in there because, by all accounts, he's as ready to play as anyone who will be on their roster. And, no, Justin Fields will not be on their roster.

Steelers: Yes, Wilson is on the radar, but this is a team that also wants Kenny Pickett to work. And for that reason, it'll be Pickett. 

Buccaneers: The plan is to re-sign Baker Mayfield, which is a solid plan until agents get involved and money becomes an issue. But, barring a collapse in negotiations, this seems the route.

Commanders Start Rookie, After Howell

Broncos: It's going to be Jarrett Stidham early and then go to whatever rookie quarterback the team drafts – with J.J. McCarthy being the preferred player for this club but perhaps out of reach as his value seemingly has risen following the combine.

Commanders: They're going to draft a quarterback with the No. 2 overall selection, barring a significant surprise. But if that quarterback is Drake Maye, as so many people believe, he's not going to be the opening day starter because he's got a lot of work to do on his mechanics and processing (reading defenses pre- and post-snap and going through his progressions) to get it all figured out by the opener. Jayden Daniels is probably more prepared to start right away, but again, he's a rookie and there's really no rush the first month of the season. So, look for Sam Howell being the starter in the season opener.

Patriots: They intend to bring in a veteran that can solidify their QB room. So someone such as Jacoby Brissett or maybe even Jimmy Garoppolo (once he's gone from the Raiders). The experience and all the things that accompany that, such as knowing how to prepare and understanding defenses, should give that veteran the edge to start early in the season and, probably, until he suffers a setback or three. Then, if the coaching staff thinks he's ready, the rookie selected in the draft should play. The Patriots will draft a quarterback. But while everyone seems certain the Patriots will pick a quarterback at No. 3, that is not a certainty at this stage because trade downs are allowed, folks. 

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Giants Look Beyond Daniel Jones

Giants: Even as everyone is saying there is faith in Daniel Jones, it's clear there is a degree of buyer's remorse within the organization after giving him a $160 million deal last offseason. So the Giants are going to at once trust Jones and not trust Jones. He is the starter on opening day. But this club is either going to add a veteran backup who can win, or draft a quarterback, perhaps in a trade down situation in the first round or a trade up in the second round that can provide an answer in the future. J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix or perhaps Michael Penix Jr. should not be ruled out at this point.

Raiders: They'll find a placeholder at the position. The rumors of Justin Fields here make sense in that former Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is the Raiders' new OC. Except, Getsy liked but didn't love Fields, per sources. You'll recall Fields was good enough to help get Getsy fired in Chicago. The Raiders have the No. 13 overall selection in the first round. That's where they want to find their quarterback.

Jets: Their starting quarterback is 40 years old, and coming back from a season-ending Achilles tear, so they need someone viable behind Aaron Rodgers. Zach Wilson is not viable. He's been given permission to seek a trade and his chances of staying with the team are zero. He'll be either traded (for very little) or released. There were whispers at the NFL combine that Jimmy Garoppolo fits here based on coach Robert Saleh's interactions and comfort level with him during their San Francisco days.

Garoppolo, only 32, will likely have to lean on his past ties for his next gig. New England becomes a possibility because he played there. Houston perhaps because GM Nick Caserio is familiar with his ability. His days as the quarterback a team brings in to start are over. He's a backup now.

Others:

Joe Flacco wants to be a starter again at age 39 and fans in Cleveland understand because he led the Browns to a 4-1 record and the playoffs last year. But no NFL team is bringing him in to start. He is a backup and, even then, preferrably in small doses. His best fit is a return to the Browns.

Justin Fields doesn't love Chicago weather. (Credit: Getty Images)

Justin Fields A Fit With Eagles

Fields will be traded or released by the Bears. And he's not going to a new team as a starter unless the new team somehow failed with their Plan A at the position. Fields is a developmental player (still) entering the final year of his rookie contract. Keeping him for even one more year beyond 2024 will cost approximately $24-$25 million and that's not a price anyone will pay for a project quarterback. The Eagles make a ton of sense for Fields as a backup to Jalen Hurts.

Hurts struggled at times with injuries in 2023, and it would be wise for the Eagles to have a player with a similar skill set and the ability to be dynamic with his legs.

Mac Jones is at a career crossroads in that he's in the final year of his rookie contract and his days as a starter are likely over unless Patrick Mahomes occupies his body during training camp next summer. So where will Jones be in 2024? It's hard to believe it'll be in New England. Does he leave via a trade? Maybe. But if that happens, it'll be for a really late-round draft pick. The 49ers seem a possibility.