NFL Personnel People: Vikings Must Keep Darnold If He Continues Like This
There was a moment on Sunday afternoon when Sam Darnold was on the turf in Minnesota with a knee injury and uncertainty was in the air. This season, so surprisingly promising, seemed at risk for the Vikings.
Fast-forward to Monday when tests revealed Darnold is merely nursing a bruised knee and will be fine without missing playing time. So a big relief for the Twin Cities.
And think about that: The quarterback brought in to be a backup and, at best, maybe bridge the gap between today and J.J. McCarthy tomorrow had a town and the entire franchise on edge over test results.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - SEPTEMBER 22: Quarterback Sam Darnold #14 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 22, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Sam Darnold Suddenly A Star
Because that guy is suddenly the guy.
Yeah, we've come a long way from Sam Darnold, NFL draft bust with the Jets and reject with the Panthers. And that's the point. Darnold is suddenly a star.
No one envisioned this when Darnold signed a modest one-year contract in the offseason. He leads the NFL with eight TD passes. He's third in passer rating. And the Vikings are undefeated.
"I've been very excited about the start that Sam's gotten off to," Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said Monday. "I'm having an absolute blast coaching him."
This is great for the Vikings.
Sep 15, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) reacts after the game against the San Francisco 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Personnel People Chime In On Darnold
But it presents something of a dilemma:
What do the Vikings do about Sam Darnold long-term?
Well, OutKick reached out to several current and former NFL general managers and personnel department people on Monday. We asked what they would do about Darnold going forward if they were managing the situation?
The answers are in the coming paragraphs (teaser). But first the facts:
The one-year deal Darnold signed is worth $10 million, which means he's paying major dividends already. And, obviously, the Vikings have McCarthy waiting to begin his NFL career next year after the false start this year caused by a knee surgery.
The original plan was to have Darnold in the fold this year in case McCarthy needed to sit. But it was also to have McCarthy take over next year, which was seemingly confirmed when O'Connell said of McCarthy, "We've got our young franchise quarterback in the building."
Aug 2, 2024; Eagan, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) warms up during practice at Vikings training camp in Eagan, MN. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
The Darnold-McCarthy Dynamic
Having McCarthy as the franchise quarterback obviously meant Darnold could go look for a starting job elsewhere or maybe fall back on remaining with the Vikings as the backup.
That scenario didn't envision Darnold leading the league in touchdown passes.
So, what if the current three-game sample size we've seen from this Darnold, playing for this coaching staff, is what he's developed into at age 27? What if Darnold continues to play well?
"They would be crazy to let him walk next offseason," one current NFL general manager said, with the understanding his name would be withheld. "I'm not saying Sam's going to be the guy we're seeing right now for 17 games and into the playoffs. My guess is there will be some regression to what he's been in the past.
"But if he is what we're seeing, I hope the Vikings do nothing. Screw the Vikings and their lucky quarterback signing."
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 04: 'Ragnar' the Minnesota Vikings mascot portrayed by Joe Juranitch, entices the home crowd against the San Diego Chargers at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome on November 4, 2007 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
No One Would Let Darnold Walk
Not one personnel man OutKick was able to reach said they would allow Darnold to leave their organization without pushing to re-sign him first.
All of them said a known quantity in the building is more valuable than whatever potential and expectation the team might have for McCarthy. So to allow Darnold to walk is unwise.
Plus, multiple front office people said the Vikings could always trade McCarthy if Darnold re-signs and continues to play well.
But it's not quite as easy as it sounds.
Assuming the Vikings understand what everyone OutKick spoke to understands – keeping a high-performing Darnold is the right move – then timing becomes an issue.
Do the Vikings wait until after the season? Do they let Darnold test free agency and try to match whatever offer he gets, something they put themselves in position to do this offseason with Kirk Cousins?
Timing Becomes An Issue
Or do the Vikings get proactive during the season?
"Some teams worry about negotiating contracts during the season," one former pro personnel director said. "We didn't. We took it on a case-by-case basis. We had no problem doing it to get a good deal."
The next problem is what is the right deal to get Darnold to stay? Let's agree that a quarterback that has a career year at 27 years old is very valuable in free agency.
So if Darnold throws, for example, 28 TD passes and 12 interceptions this year, his agents will be vying for a deal whose average per year is at least $50 million.
"That's ridiculous, but some agents will try that," the NFL GM said. "I would not do that."
One former club vice president said Darnold would be worth 25-30 percent less than market. And he'd like to do a two-year deal, or a deal the team can exit after two years, even if it's a longer deal.
He was among the consensus that said he'd pay Darnold if he was the Vikings.
Getting 25 percent off on a $50 million per year deal would pay Darnold around $38.5 million per year.
The Vikings will be looking at all this. It would be front office malpractice to have a quarterback performing at a high level and not consider next steps.