NFL Draft Is One Week Away, And There's Not One Firm Trade Offer For A Top 5 Selection
The dominant narrative that has dominated the NFL news cycle? Lately it's been how many teams are interested in trading up to pick a quarterback while several teams in the Top 5 are willing to trade back.
But here's the truth: Not one team willing to trade away its Top 5 pick has gotten a good offer to do so yet.
Most of them haven't gotten any offer at all, best I can tell.
And that mega-offer, the so-called "bag" Patriots coach Jerod Mayo said last month was needed to make such a move, has been like a pink unicorn. We've heard it exists in people's imagination. But not in reality.
So far the trade market involves a lot of talk. But no tangible movement toward any deal.
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Neither Bears Nor Commanders Moving
For the sake of bookkeeping, let's establish that the Chicago Bears are not trading the No. 1 overall selection. They're going to pick USC quarterback Caleb Williams, barring the moon crashing into their team facility before next Thursday.
The Washington Commanders, holding the No. 2 pick, similarly aren't trading down. General manager Adam Peters said as much on Thursday.
We know the action may begin with the No. 3 overall selection held by the New England Patriots.
Or the No. 4 overall selection held by the Arizona Cardinals.
Or the No. 5 overall selection held by the Los Angeles Chargers.
All three of those teams are saying – on the record, in broad daylight and almost as a dare – that they're willing to trade their picks if some other team calls and offers a treasure trove of picks in return.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 27: Director of scouting Eliot Wolf of the New England Patriots speaks to the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center on February 27, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
No ‘Bag’ Offered To Patriots
But no treasure trove so far. In fact, no bag of golf balls and a sixth-round pick has been offered so far.
"We are open to anything," Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf said Thursday. "Moving up, moving down: we are open for business in the first round and in every round."
Wolf isn't just inviting trade talks. He's engaged in them. "There've been conversations that have taken place," he said.
Wolf added those discussions are "ongoing" and have even involved teams wanting to move up for a wide receiver – which suggests someone might want to get ahead of the receiver-needy Cardinals at No. 4.
But "ongoing" conversations typically mean there's much more work to do before something could be close.
The Cardinals have been at the epicenter of the trade-down narratives for months since the NFL combine. Unlike the three teams in front of them, they definitely will not select a quarterback if they stay in their slot.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 31: Kyler Murray #1 celebrates with Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort following the win against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 31, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Ossenfort: Trading Like Selling Your House
OutKick reported weeks ago the Cardinals want three first-round picks to move down significantly from their current spot.
"Yeah, we've had talks with multiple teams and multiple teams have checked in with us," general manager Monti Ossenfort said Thursday. "Listen, I think the way I look at it is, I love my house. I love where I live. My wife loves where we live.
"If all of a sudden there's a knock on my door and someone's going to offer me something, I'm going to look and see what they're offering me. If I open that up and it's something I'm not expecting, ‘Hey Shannon, let's go. Pack up. It's time to roll.’ "
Someone asked jokingly if he'd move if someone finally offered him three first-round picks for his house.
"You might have to talk to Shannon on that one," he said with a smile.
Shannon, Ossenfort's wife, wouldn't know right now because no team has come with that bounty of an offer. That's the reason Ossenfort called the trade talks so far, "just surface level."
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - FEBRUARY 27: General manager Joe Hortiz of the Los Angeles Chargers speaks to the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center on February 27, 2024 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Chargers Talking Trade Down, Too
And now a bit of a twist to all the plans the Cardinals have of selling their pick (or Ossenfort's house) for three first-round picks: The Chargers, picking at No. 5, are also willing to sell.
That's bad for the Cardinals because, for example, if the Minnesota Vikings decline to give up their two first-rounders this year and a first next year, they know the same quarterback will likely be available at No. 5 – because the Cardinals aren't picking that QB.
The only way the scenario wouldn't play out for the Vikings is if another team – Denver, Las Vegas or perhaps the New York Giants – trade to No. 4.
None of those teams have two first-round picks this year to give up in trade.
So the Chargers are interesting. And interested.
"I've had communication, conversations," Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz said Thursday about his foray into trade talks. "Nothing is concrete right now. We have the fifth pick. If we had the first pick of the draft, there would probably be a lot of calls being made and people would be making offers already.
"People have called about interest in coming up to us. We've had conversations. I think we'll have conversations through this week. I've had them already this week. We'll have them through the weekend, through next week, and then on draft day, that's when it'll really pick up."
It's unknown what it would take to pry the No. 5 pick from the Chargers. It probably depends on how far they would have to fall back.
But regardless of the drop, Hortiz wants everyone to know trading for his pick is not going to be cheap because there are players at No. 5 he'd like to pick.
"They have to make it attractive for us to move away from those players," Hortiz said. "The whole, 'It's a fair trade, it's a wash.' I don't think that's a trade that we're interested in."