Mel Kiper Jr. Celebrating 40th Anniversary As TV's Most Well Known Draft Analyst

Starting at 1 p.m. on Thursday and probably stretching two hours or more, if past performances are a standard, Mel Kiper Jr. will be on the phone with reporters, bloggers and draft nerds from across the country to discuss the 2024 draft.

That follows a full work day Wednesday, during which Kiper got the car wash treatment on ESPN – with hits on First Take with Steven A. Smith, on NFL Live, and even on a full-blown draft special late in the afternoon.

All of this revolves around Kiper's final mock draft before the 2024 NFL Draft that begins the evening of April 25 and marks a significant milestone for the ESPN senior draft analyst.

NEW YORK - Mel Kiper, Chris Mortensen and Keyshawn Johnson broadcast for ESPN during the 2007 NFL Draft on April 28, 2007 at Radio City Music Hall. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Mel Kiper Trademark Still Recognizable

Kiper's first draft with ESPN came in 1984.

This is his 40th year analyzing the draft for the cable network and, yes, the trademark hair is framed with some gray now because Kiper will turn 64 in July. 

"The hair keeps thinning and thinning," Kiper said on the ESPN2 draft special. "It was a lot thicker back in the day. I've got a little bit left, but I got to tell you it's looking pretty bad."

That's just esthetics. But Kiper's encyclopedic knowledge of the prospects and delivery of the pertinent facts remains quick, concise and often on point.

Kiper fittingly released his mock 4.0 on Wednesday. It goes through two full rounds. It includes trades. And it is the final workup Kiper will do this draft cycle.

It's bound to be wrong at some point, because all mocks are. But Kiper nailed the first two selections of USC's Caleb Williams to the Bears and LSU's Jayden Daniels to the Commanders. (I'm saying he nailed it because I agree with him).

"You don't want to get cute, you don't want to overthink it," Kiper said.

Patriots Must Land A QB

Kiper has the Patriots, who have made noise about trading down, staying at No. 3 and picking quarterback Drake Maye. Right again.

"The organization has to develop the talent around Drake Maye," Kiper said.

Yeah, they also have to develop Maye, who has footwork and processing issues. And they indeed must add talent to an offense that still looks no better than the unit that accelerated the failure of Mac Jones.

Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye (10) looks to pass in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Kiper makes a great point that maybe the Patriots aren't in love with Maye. Maybe they don't trust the limited use of J.J. McCarthy as Michigan won a national title riding a great running game and defense.

But the Patriots must come out of this draft with somebody to play QB. So maybe Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix interest the club later because doing nothing isn't an answer. 

"You're going to be telling me none of these four quarterbacks are good enough to be a Patriot?" Kiper asked rhetorically. "…I can't believe that."

Marvin Harrison Jr. #18 of the Ohio State Buckeyes celebrates after a touchdown during the second quarter in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

No Cardinals Trade, But Vikes Still Move Up

Kiper has the Cardinals picking Marvin Harrison Jr. in a move that passes on making a trade with the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals want three first-round picks to trade out of the selection.

The Vikings, Kiper believes, instead make their almost certain trade up with the Los Angeles Chargers, who currently have the No. 5 overall selection. The Vikings fill their QB need by picking McCarthy in Kiper's mock.

Kiper is picking LSU's Malik Nabers to the New York Giants, offensive tackle Joe Alt to the Titans and then Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner to the Atlanta Falcons as the first defensive player selected. 

All logical.

Williams needs a WR1 for the future and Keenan Allen is 31, so Kiper mocks receiver Rome Odunze to the Bears using their No. 9 pick.

"He would be a steal if available at No. 9," Kiper said.

ATHENS, Ga. - Brock Bowers of the Georgia Bulldogs surveys the field during a run during a game between University of Kentucky and University of Georgia at Sanford Stadium on October 7, 2023. (Photo by Steve Limentani/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Jets Give Rodgers Another Weapon

Kiper believes the Jets should try to move down from No. 10 because they need to make up for the loss of their second-round pick they sent to Green Bay for Aaron Rodgers.

But he still has Georgia tight end Brock Bowers going to New York at No. 10 as another target for Rodgers.

Kiper knows the Broncos need a quarterback but not at No. 12, he says. He's putting Toledo cornerback Quinyon Mitchell to Denver over Penix Jr. or Nix.

"You don't reach, you wait it out and see what you can do down the line," said Kiper, who also suggested a trade back if the Broncos' thirst for a quarterback must be quenched in the first round.

STANFORD, Calif. - Michael Penix Jr. of the Washington Huskies passes the ball during a game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium on October 28, 2023. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)

Nix Ahead Of Penix Jr?

Kiper, interestingly, doesn't have Penix Jr. or Nix in the first round. OutKick reported Penix Jr. is on several initial draft boards as a first rounder.

Kiper knows the Saints need a tackle and gives them Penn State's Olu Fashanu at No. 14. He knows the Eagles need a cornerback and gives them Clemson's Nate Wiggins at No. 22. And, yes, the Bills lost both their starting receivers, so Kiper slots LSU's Brian Thomas to them at No. 28.

The guy understands needs versus value.

Kiper has the Giants trading up in the second round to draft Nix. He has the Rams picking Penix Jr. in a trade up by the Rams.

I get it, Matthew Stafford is a year-to-year player at this stage in his career. And, yes, the Giants have made a lot of noise about picking a quarterback. 

But Nix ahead of Penix Jr? 

Not even Kiper is perfect.