How The Heck Did J.J. McCarthy Become A Potential Top 5 Pick?

There was that throwback gadget play the Michigan Wolverines ran against Nick Saban's Alabama defense in the Rose Bowl in January that multiple NFL scouts were still discussing Monday afternoon.

On that play, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy throws a pass to a receiver behind the line of scrimmage to his right, then fades out left where the receiver throws the ball back to him. Except the second pass is way high.

So McCarthy jumps and catches it with one hand.

And an Alabama edge player, who isn't fooled by trickery, is already bearing down on the Michigan quarterback. But McCarthy gathers the ball and throws it 30 yards downfield just as he gets pummeled.

The ball, flying on a line, connects with another Michigan receiver in stride as he taps a foot out on the sideline.

Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy passes to WR Cornelius Johnson during the 1st quarter of a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. (Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

Commanders Visit For McCarthy

"An example of stunning athleticism by McCarthy," one scout told OutKick. "That ability is one reason the NFL is loving him right now."

McCarthy will be in Washington on Tuesday. He's running for President. 

No he isn't. 

He'll be there to meet with the Commanders through Wednesday. And that will be the final leg of his busy and seemingly improbable campaign to become a top 5 selection in next week's NFL draft.

Think of it: McCarthy is meeting with the team that holds the No. 2 overall selection. He's already visited the New England Patriots, which hold the No. 3 overall pick. And he's also met with the New York Giants, which hold the No. 6 overall pick.

Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell talks with QB Joshua Dobbs before the game vs. the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Vikings As McCarthy's Draft Floor

If that's not enough, the Minnesota Vikings put him through a private workout recently because they own two first-round picks and could try to trade up to the No. 4 pick held by the Arizona Cardinals or the No. 5 pick held by the Chargers.

And such a trade would come with transparent intentions to select McCarthy.

All of those teams have McCarthy as a possibility among the top 5 or 6 picks. (My personal opinion is the Bears take Caleb Williams, the Commanders pick Jayden Daniels and New England ends up with Drake Maye, after which McCarthy is the next quarterback selected.)

And the question that must be asked is how did we get here? 

How did McCarthy go from having a nice season for Michigan to likely being among the draft's elite picks? If your answer is the Wolverines won the national championship and McCarthy helped them get there, that misses some facts.

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 02: NFL Network Analyst Daniel Jeremiah answers questions from the media during the NFL Scouting Combine on March 2, 2022, at the Indiana Convention Center in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jeremiah: 'An Acquired Taste…"

Because Jim Harbaugh's team won the national championship with the No. 43 ranked passing offense in the land. 

So I ask again, how did McCarthy seemingly blow up after the season? Few NFL people will offer a straight, detailed answer. You'll hear a lot of, "He's smart," and "great leader" and "nice base when he throws."

But you don't hear, "he can do things no one else can," or "he's elite at (fill in the blank)."

On one of his conference calls with reporters during the run-up to the draft, NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah was complimentary of McCarthy because there are good things to like. 

But Jeremiah ultimately said this: "He is an acquired taste."

An acquired taste? 

Brussels sprouts is an acquired taste. 

Sea urchin is an acquired taste.

A fifth-round pick can be an acquired taste, but the fifth player taken in the draft needs to be a seven-course party for the palate.

Michigan Wolverines QB J.J. McCarthy celebrates a TD against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. (Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)

The Next Tom Brady

This is not a takedown of J.J. McCarthy. A retired NFL offensive assistant coach recently told me he could see similarities with Tom Brady coming out of Michigan in 2000. 

So people see the winner McCarthy is. They see the NFL caliber arm. The talents are not a mystery, especially when McCarthy shows courage and acumen throwing into tight windows in the middle of the field.

But I wonder if the evaluation season has somehow overshadowed the actual season, as teams have spoken with, worked out, visited with and tested McCarthy?   

On the field, McCarthy was undefeated last year. But he delivered nearly a month, from November 11 to December 2, in which he threw 1 TD pass. And 1 interception.

Total.

During that stretch, he threw for 60 yards against Penn State.

He threw for 141 yards against Maryland.

He threw for 148 yards against Ohio State.

He threw for 147 yards against Iowa.

The Wolverines won all those games. So no one wondered why McCarthy didn't do more. He obviously did enough to win.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines walks on the field after winning the Big Ten Football Championship game against the the Iowa Hawkeyes at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 04, 2021, in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Ball Out Of McCarthy's Hands 

But if he has a stretch like that against the AFC East while playing for the Patriots or against the NFC North while playing for the Vikings, an entire fan base will be looking at him sideways.

Because that kind of stretch doesn't translate to wins in the NFL.

The Wolverines were 15-0 last season.

They did it with the No. 43 passing offense in the Division I FBS. The Wolverines were 40th in third-down conversions, with a 42.77 conversion percentage. They were 66th in third down pass attempts, which doesn't suggest Harbaugh wanted to put the ball in McCarthy's hands on the biggest passing down.

All these factoids have seemingly been pushed into the shadows as NFL talent evaluators have embraced McCarthy as not just a first-round pick, but a top pick.

It's been a fascinating, curious ride.