Grading Armando Salguero's Hits And Misses During NFL Draft Season

You've probably grown accustomed to watching reporters, bloggers and, basically anyone with a keyboard, grading NFL teams on the work they did over the three-day draft without actually knowing the facts.

Let's face it: No one knows if picking Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye with the top three picks in 2024 will be any better than, say, picking Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance was in 2021. 

No one knows if Mr. Irrelevant is going to stink (like many do) or star (like Brock Purdy does). How do you grade drafts when Tom Brady is picked 199th overall and Tim Couch is picked No. 1?

Courtesy: Getty Images

No Way To Grade This Early

We. Don't. Know.

Draft grades are generally the opinion of people who know less than the people they're grading – with no one hitting even on 75-80 percent of what's happening from draft to draft.

So I'm not going to grade NFL teams on the 2024 draft for at least three or four years. We simply need that much time to get a true picture of what actually happened. Sorry, instant gratification crowd.

What I'm going to do instead is grade, well, me.

I've written a ton of copy in the two months between the scouting combine in Indianapolis and the draft in Detroit. I told you a lot of stuff was going to happen.

So, as a matter of full disclosure, I want to share where I was correct. And where I was that other thing which is the opposite of correct.

Let's see how Armando did since the Combine.                                              (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)

Time To See Salguero's Score

It's time to refer to the scoreboard.

We're going to do this as I pledge I'm not going to grade myself on a curve. Because I don't do that when analyzing what teams do during the season, or in free agency, or in the draft.

I grade them hard. So I'll do some self-flaggelation as warranted.

(Full disclosure: As I write this paragraph, I have no true idea how this is going to go. I don't typically keep an exact score on myself. I think I've done alright, but I don't know for sure. If it doesn't go well, this might be my last column. If I miss something either way, feel free to email the link of my genius or stupidity to Armando.Salguero@OutKick.com and I'll write that up.)

Let's start with the hits:

On March 1, which was in the middle of the scouting combine, OutKick reported Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels was challenging to be atop the draft that would happen nearly two months later.

All the national mock drafts at the time had Daniels as the No. 3 quarterback behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. I wrote Daniels could go higher. He went No. 2 overall. Hit. 

Apr 26, 2024; Flowery Branch, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons first round draft pick quarterback Michael Penix Jr talks to the media at a press conference introducing him at the Falcons training complex. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Penix Jr. In Round 1

On March 29, I wrote, "The Giants being in play for Maye is a fit for multiple reasons," and outlined those. We now know the Giants tried to trade up to the No. 3 overall spot and, while they are not saying why, and some sources are suggesting New York maybe wanted an offensive lineman, multiple NFL people insist it's because they wanted to land Maye.

I'm going to take it because I still don't know how terrible things are going to get down below. Hit.

On April 3, I shared my belief that the Chargers were going to address offensive line in the first round and then wide receiver in the second round. The Chargers picked OT Joe Alt in the first round and receiver Ladd McConkey in the second round. Hit.

On April 5, I related how ESPN experts tied Michael Penix Jr. to the Giants – in the second round. NFL.com had him in the first round of some drafts but not others. Mel Kiper slotted three University of Washington players and a total of five quarterbacks in the first round, yet none of them named Penix Jr.

Meanwhile, I reported multiple teams had Penix Jr. slotted in the first round and wrote, "sources added it's hard to see how Penix Jr. drops out of the first round." Hit.

By April 16, the J.J. McCarthy train to the first round was rolling inexerably down the draft tracks. Great. But I asked myself, "Self, would I pick this player in the top 5 as some national pundits and reporters have said?"

And the answer was, "nope."

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy misses the trophy to celebrate 34-13 win over Washington at the national championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024.

J.J. McCarthy Top 5? Nope

So I wrote an opinion piece asking why McCarthy would be considered a top 5 pick? I was dubious. And that instinct was ultimately correct. McCarthy was selected No. 10. I struggled with the McCarthy reporting because evaluators were all over the place with him, as you'll see below. But on this one, I'm collecting my hit.

On April 19, six days before the draft, I wrote none of the teams in the top five spots had received a solid trade offer for their pick. That changed the day of the draft, but ultimately no team in the top five traded their pick. I'm taking it. Hit.

I told you the morning of the draft, "The Cardinals want the best receiver in the draft and they intend to get him," per source. This came amid ongoing rumors the Cardinals could trade their pick. Hit.

Finally, I want to share my text exchange with a high-ranked FOXNews executive prior to the start of the draft:

No, I didn't write this on the website. It wasn't out there for everyone to judge. But this is how I believed it was going to go before the draft began and I obviously would share it here if I didn't have a reliable witness. 

Anyway, it happened exactly as I texted, so maybe when that executive reads all my failures below, I'll still be writing for OutKick tomorrow. Hit.

And now the misses:

On March 5, only days after the conclusion of the scouting combine, I wrote that, "A handful of NFL personnel people willing to share opinions in exchange for anonymity told OutKick that [J.J.] McCarthy's floor is not only in the first round but in the middle of the round."

McCarthy was selected No. 10 overall. I missed the middle of the first round by, like, six picks. 

I would point out I was closer than most reports at the time because no one was tying McCarthy to the first-round at all back then. But I told you I was grading hard. So, reluctantly, I give myself a miss.

General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah of the Minnesota Vikings speaks to the media during the NFL Combine. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Vikings Didn't Need 2 First-Rounders For QB

On March 15, the Vikings traded with the Texans to add a first-round pick this year. I wrote the Vikings were playing chess while the Raiders and Broncos, which also needed a quarterback, were playing checkers. 

And, "if you're into chess, [the trade] can only mean the Vikings intend to parlay their two first-round picks to move up in the draft to select a quarterback."

Well, the Vikings indeed drafted a quarterback. And they indeed traded up to pick McCarthy. But they didn't need both first-round picks to do it. Miss.

I was going to diligently search for more misses, but it seems I had so many hits that this column has gotten really long. So, in deference to your time investment, I'll stop here.

Yeah, kidding. If you find any other reporting hits or misses let me know.