Mailbag: Predicting Every AFC East Team's Record, Chicago's Playoff Chances & Ja'Marr Chase's Contract Total

PublishedAugust 28, 2024 12:31 PM EDT|UpdatedAugust 28, 2024 12:31 PM EDT

Senior NFL Writer Armando Salguero will be taking your questions about the NFL and ANYTHING else you want to ask him about weekly. You can join his mailbag at Armando.Salguero@Outkick.com or @ArmandoSalguero on X, and he'll post your questions and his answers.

Welcome everybody to the world premiere of OutKick's NFL mailbag where life expert Mando will take your thoughts and expose both of us to public scrutiny because I expect some of the stuff you send will be as interesting, fun, controversial and unorthodox as some of the stuff I write.

This is your post.

I'm merely here to serve up best answers conjured from sources, best advice conjured from life experiences, and best guesses conjured straight out of my hind quarters.

Let's go:

Q:

AFC East Prediction Breakdown

A: Appreciate the question, DMark. And thanks for your years of engagement, sir.

I'm going to do better than give you a record for the 2024 Miami Dolphins. Because I want to provide more than my readers expect. So here's my prediction for the entire AFC East:

Jets 12-5: This is if – big IF – Aaron Rodgers and the offensive line stay healthy all season. All of them. That doesn't happen, bye-bye.

Dolphins 11-6: Not thrilled with the offensive line, the receiver room is already a MASH unit, and the front seven on defense needs a lot of things to go exactly right – Jaelan Phillips comes back better after Achilles surgery, Calais Campbell stays healthy and consistent at age 38, and Bradley Chubb, who has been injury prone over the years, gets healthy and stays that way.

Bills 9-8: They struggled at times last year before rallying late but I don't believe they improved this offseason by moving on from both their starting safeties, both their starting WRs, and losing Matt Milano to injury in training camp. Josh Allen cannot do it by himself.

Patriots 3-14: Boston hasn't been this upset since the Tea Party. But the offensive line is not good, the playmakers on the outside are not dynamic, and the QB situation and how that's going to be handled is in flux. The defense is solid. Christian Gonzalez is going to be a star.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 10: Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals warms up prior to the game against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on September 10, 2023 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Ja'Marr Chase, Trent Williams Get Paid

Q. With (Ja'Marr) Chase more than not likely signing before the season begins because Bengals can’t afford the high guaranteed money this year cause of the franchise tag given to (Tee) Higgins, do you see Chase setting the market next year and how much more than Jefferson?

Also, I see Trent Williams being more important to sign than WR.– William Moore

A: Ah, the first double-dip question and an opinion email. Appreciate you reaching out, William.

Ja'Marr Chase is effectively entering a contract year and everyone knows it, including his great friend Joe Burrow. This while Tee Higgins is probably playing his final year in Cincy. If Burrow stays healthy, he will make it his mission to feed Chase. That will be maybe more than usual because Tyler Boyd is gone to Tennessee and I don't see Andrei Iosivas collecting all those targets.

Based on that, and the Bengals' history of how they handled the Burrow deal, I see Chase as the highest paid WR next offseason. The number will be between $36-$38 million per season on an annual average basis – or between $1-$3 million more per year than Justin Jefferson.

As for Trent Williams, he wants to get to $30 million per season, up from his current $23 million. The 49ers will be forced to give him a raise to make him the NFL's highest-paid left tackle, passing Christian Darrisaw.

But the way they do this could be different than an extension. Perhaps they move money from Williams' final season base salary to guaranteed bonus paid over the next three seasons, ensuring Williams isn't a cap casualty in 2026 at age 38.

And, yes, he is more important than Brandon Aiyuk.

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 08: Jaylen Waddle #17 of the Miami Dolphins, Tyreek Hill #10 and De'Von Achane #28 celebrates gaining yardage against the New York Giants during the first half at Hard Rock Stadium on October 08, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

FF Questions AT Your Own Risk

Q. Armando, I’m in a 10-man standard PPR, keepers league, keep two. I’m already keeping Tyreek Hill, but I’m in the fence between keeping Waddle or Achane as my second. Who do you think has the more productive season between the two of them?

– Eddie J. Ochoa

A. Eddie, so you're aware, I am a fantasy football loser. I suck at FF. Terrible. Come to me for FF advice and do the opposite of what I suggest, bro.

Having said that, your question at its core is what stats do I project for Waddle and Achane this year? Look, Waddle is getting the ball more this year because the Dolphins receiver room is banged up, so Tua will rely more on him and Tyreek Hill. So I expect between 6-8 TDs and probably around 80 receptions for 1,100ish yards.

Achane will also get the ball more than in the past. The Dolphins OL is, let's say, a work in progress. So lots of quick throws to the backs, too. I see him around 10 TDs this year again, with maybe 35 receptions.

Choose accordingly. But remember, I suck.

Da Bears Are Gonna Be Relevant

A. Rick, my man, you need to invest in an avatar. You got a bunch of followers, they deserve to see your name, image and likeness.

Anyway, the Bears won 7 games last year with a QB who didn't want to play within the offense but instead wanted to play on instinct, an embattled offensive coordinator, and less talent.

This year, they hired Shane Waldron to be the OC, and he is the guy who turned Geno Smith from a career backup to a viable starter in Seattle. So he's positioned to turn Caleb Williams into more than merely a good NFL QB.

I like the arc the Bears are on. I see them having a winning season for the first time since 2018. They're going to be relevant. Does that mean they actually make the playoffs?

As you are aware, that has a lot to do with the rest of the conference, so I'd be lying to you if I said yes or no. I do not know.