The Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers Saga Could Be Nearing An Awkward Ending
The Trey Lance experience with the San Francisco 49ers seems all but over.
The San Francisco 49ers are trying to trade Lance and move on from what has arguably been the organization's biggest draft mistake, like, ever (even worse than Jim Druckenmiller in 1997).
It's a situation that has been trending poorly for a couple of years now and got worse Wednesday when the 49ers awarded Sam Darnold the backup quarterback job behind Brock Purdy.
That left Lance in limbo. So he didn't show up to practice as both the player and the club agreed he should take some time while club is trying to trade him.
But here's where bad gets worse: The 49ers are now trying to rally leaguewide interest in Lance even as they're admitting he's not good enough to beat out Darnold, a first-round bust now playing for his third team since being drafted in 2018.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers talks with his quarterbacks Trey Lance #5 and Brock Purdy #13 during work outs in training camp at SAP Performance Facility on August 04, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Kyle Shanahan Suggests Playing Lance
And how are the 49ers going to try selling the idea of Lance as a viable player some trade partner should acquire as a developmental project?
Why, they're going to play him Friday night in the preseason finale against the Los Angeles Chargers. Lance will substitute in as the backup in a game Darnold is scheduled to start, coach Kyle Shanahan said on KNBR radio Wednesday evening.
"I plan on Trey going in right after Sam," Shanahan said on air.
Weird.
Shanahan and Niners GM John Lynch, by the way, did not speak to reporters who cover the team on Wednesday. Never mind that was the day the news leaked that Darnold had won the backup job and Lance is on the trade block.
Not great optics, guys.
So now what happens?
Quarterback Trey Lance of the San Francisco 49ers readies to take a snap during the second quarter during a preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on August 13, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Raiders won 34-7. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Trey Lance Trade Won't Net Good Return
Although some teams, most notably Minnesota, have shown mild interest in Lance in the past there is no doubt the 49ers will find it impossible to get a good return in any exchange for Lance now.
Remember, the 49ers gave up three first-round picks plus other compensation to the Miami Dolphins to move from No. 12 to No. 3 overall in the 2021 first round. Lance was then selected with that No. 3 pick but has been unable to live up to his draft pedigree.
He's played only eight games, starting four, and posted a poor 54.9 completion percentage. He's also been injured too often to gain any traction as a starter candidate.
And amid all that the 49ers want to trade Lance.
If Lance plays Friday and performs well enough to gain some random team's interest, a trade would be a reset. The 49ers could change the subject on a terrible pick and Lance would get to change scenery.
Any trade would likely be for a third-day-of-the-draft selection.
Trey Lance #5 and Sam Darnold #14 of the San Francisco 49ers during mandatory minicamp at the SAP Performance Facility on June 7, 2023 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Sam Darnold;Trey Lance
Wait, 49ers Might Keep Him?
The 49ers can also achieve their reset by cutting Lance but that would be an onerous salary cap move. It would cost the 49ers $5.3 million more in cap room to cut Lance than keep him as their third quarterback.
So Shanahan was actually floating a scenario whereby Lance stays. Yes, awkward, but the 49ers have been doing awkward QB things for a while now dating back to how they handled the Jimmy Garoppolo situation the last couple of seasons.
"I mean this isn’t a thing where we’re giving up on Trey," Shanahan said on KNBR. "This is more of how Brock played in his seven games and that was decided before the season started, and how Sam’s looked. They’ve both looked good but we have to make a decision here. You only get so many reps at it. We feel starting about 10 days ago Sam really separated himself, and we got to keep it real in that way.
"I feel very, very fortunate to have both of them here. I really hope when it’s said and done that all three of these guys are here, and you never know when that’s going to come up. We needed four guys last year. It doesn’t happen much, but if we can have Trey as an option here, I would feel extremely happy about that.
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 21: A San Francisco 49ers helmet on the bench during the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on November 21, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Trey Lance Trade Market Seems Weak
"I think the other quarterbacks in our room would and our team would. Trey is a very well-liked guy and one of the better people I’ve been around. And I do think he’s going to have a lot of success in this league."
That last part sounds as much like a pitch to have someone step forward as it does legitimate praise.
So let's play this out ...
By all accounts the market for Lance is weak at the moment.
Lance is a developmental player. He's played eight games the past two seasons and one college game at North Dakota State in 2020's pandemic season.
It would have to a be a team with an uncertain quarterback situation that values Lance's potential. That would come at the cost of $5.3 million this season and $10.8 million next year.
Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings is seen during the first quarter against the New York Giants in the NFC Wild Card playoff game at U.S. Bank Stadium on January 15, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
Vikings Among Possible Trade Scenarios
Anyway, some teams where it might -- might -- make some sense based on their current QB situation:
New England: Is Mac Jones their franchise QB? Is Bailey Zappe better than Lance?
Eagles: Backup Marcus Mariota has struggled this preseason. The cap makes adding Lance a difficult move.
Ravens: Lamar Jackson is their man. But he's had durability issues the past two seasons.
Browns: They lead the league in salary cap space and everything behind starter Deshaun Watson is in flux.
Vikings: Makes sense because Kirk Cousins is unsigned beyond this season.
Falcons: They're going with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke behind him. Lance could be a No. 3 for the moment.
Buccaneers: Depends how the Bucs feel about Kyle Trask's ceiling this year. And how Baker Mayfield plays this season in deciding whether to keep him next season.
Raiders: Lance couldn't beat out Jimmy G in San Francisco and wouldn't do it in Vegas. But Garoppolo's durability has been an issue.
Rams: It would be the ultimate disrespect by the 49ers to send Lance to a division rival. But if anyone can make Lance good it's coach Sean McVay. So it would be the ultimate payback for Lance to go to Los Angeles and beat the 49ers.