NFL Trumpets 24 Teams Still Alive For Playoffs But Context Of Truth Tells Different Story
As the regular-season sprints to the finish line, the NFL is trumpeting how tight and competitive this season has been by pointing to the fact 24 teams remain in contention for a postseason spot.
And that's true. The 24 teams still alive with two weeks left to play is the most in 20 years.
Math And Truth Tell Different Playoff Stories
A total of 14 teams will indeed get into the playoffs in the two conferences and six have already clinched a spot. That means 18 teams are alive and vying for the remaining eight spots. That's the math.
But the math might just be a little misleading.
Because we have eyes. And calculators.
Of the 18 teams still alive for the playoffs that have not yet clinched a berth, seven have losing records. One of those, the Chicago Bears, is 6-9 and cannot salvage a winning season no matter what.
The Bears need to win and have the Rams, Saints, Seahawks and Vikings lose this weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive. They have less than a one percent chance of making the playoffs.
If the Bears beat the Falcons on Sunday their probability of making the playoffs skyrockets to one percent.
But 24 teams can make it, people!
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - DECEMBER 16: Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) warms up at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan on December 16, 2023. The Denver Broncos will take on the hometown Detroit Lions during week 15 of 2023 NFL season. (Photo by RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
Russell Wilson On The Bench For Playoffs?
Some teams with losing records are fighting an uphill battle to get in the playoffs based on probabilities.
Denver (7-8) has an 8 percent chance of getting in the playoffs. And they're actually considering benching starting quarterback Russell Wilson the final two weeks of the season, a source confirmed, because they may not want to risk getting him injured.
If Wilson is healthy, the Broncos can much more easily move on from him if they wish after the season. If he's injured, that complicates the process.
The what does the Broncos' considering this tell you about what they think of their current playoff chances?
The Falcons (7-8) have a 10 percent chance of getting in.
The Raiders (7-8) have a 12 percent chance of getting in.
New Orleans (7-8) has a 13 percent chance of getting in.
Even the Steelers, above water with an 8-7 record and coming off an impressive victory over the Bengals, have only an 18 percent chance of getting in the postseason.
I guess the NFL's position is no matter how unlikely it is, if there's a chance, it's going to blare it out.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 10: Joshua Dobbs #15 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Vikings Are Alive In Playoff Race, But Barely
And there is a small chance for these teams. But the harsh reality is the NFL season is like a polygraph test. It tests for fake or empty narratives and puts them on blast for everyone to see.
So to suggest teams that are so flawed as to be well back in the pack and under .500 at this late stage can rally to a playoff seed -- especially when they need help of heroic heights from other teams to do it -- is kind of misleading.
And that doesn't account for teams with solid probabilities of making it. There are, you see, some teams squarely in the playoff race that are stalling and burping and losing parts by the side of the road like an old jalopy as they drive toward the postseason.
The Vikings are currently an eighth seed in the NFC so they're just outside the playoff picture trying to muscle their way in.
But the truth is they've lost two consecutive games and four of their last five. And, by the way, they spent the past two days working through its options on a starting quarterback.
They are not exactly looking like a team making a playoff push.
ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 5: Taylor Heinicke #4 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates after a play during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 5, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Falcons juggling QBs During Push For Playoffs
Neither do the Falcons. Atlanta has lost two of its previous three games. They are juggling quarterbacks Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. (It's Heinicke's team at the moment).
They don't really look like a playoff team. But they're one of the 24 teams with a chance.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are high on the list of likely playoff qualifiers. They have a winning record. They lead the AFC South.
But the Jaguars are a stunning study in disappointment at the moment.
They lead their division because they built such a commanding lead earlier in the season. They won 7 of 8 games in October and November.
But the Jaguars have now lost four consecutive games, have been dealing with significant injuries, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled.
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 04: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars is helped off the field by trainers after being injured against the Cincinnati Bengals during the fourth quarter at EverBank Stadium on December 04, 2023 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
Trevor Lawrence Not Looking Like A Playoff QB
Lawrence, it must be noted, is expected to be outstanding. That's how it is when a player is the league's No. 1 overall draft pick, as Lawrence was in 2021.
And Lawrence very good in spurts earlier in the season. But he's dealt with a concussion and an ankle injury that have forced him to miss significant practice time in recent weeks.
And he's played poorly as a result. Lawrence has five interceptions and four fumbles the past three games.
“Everybody wants to point the finger somewhere,” coach Doug Pederson said this week. "We have to do a better job at taking care of the football. It’s not about the plays. We have to tackle better and we have to take care of the football, bottom line.
"We do those two things, those give us a chance to win football games. If we don’t, then we’re going to be talking about this again. Those are the glaring differences right now between winning and losing."
The Jaguars today have a 70 percent probability of making the playoffs. If they lose Sunday against the Carolina Panthers, who are coming off a rare victory last week, then the percentage drops to only 40 percent.