Dolphins Confidant They Won't Be Outnumbered Despite Reports Bills Fan Taking Over Miami
The idea that Buffalo Bills fans will outnumber Miami Dolphins fans at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Sunday evening is making headlines everywhere.
But the Dolphins don't buy it.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 19: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates after a touchdown with fans in the game against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium on November 19, 2023 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Bryan Cereijo/Getty Images)
Dolphins Push Back On Reports
The Dolphins believe all the estimates out there are "grossly exaggerated," a club source told OutKick on Friday. So the Dolphins doubt there could be anywhere close to reported estimates of 32,000-to-33,000 Bills fans in the seats out of a sellout crowd of 65,326.
Understand that pushes back on the popular narrative of the week leading up to a game that will decide the AFC East championship.
The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, quoting statistics from Vivid Seats, estimates Bills fans will outnumber Dolphins fans 52 percent to 48 percent.
WKBW Channel 7 in Buffalo predicted a Bills Mafia takeover.
Sports Illustrated said the same thing.
And NBC Sports aggregated the same information nationally.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 11: Miami Dolphins fans do not plan on being overrun by Bill's fans. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Dolphins Monitoring Secondary Ticket Market
So why aren't the Dolphins worried?
The club has seen the reports and have monitored the actual numbers on the secondary ticket market. And these are some facts provided exclusively to OutKick:
As of Friday there had been about 9,000 tickets sold on the Ticketmaster secondary market for Sunday night's game. There are no more tickets on the primary market, meaning a Dolphins or Bills fan wanting to go has to go to a secondary market at this point. Miami estimate those 9,000 tickets were not all scooped up by Bills fans.
Even if 50 percent of those secondary tickets were bought by Bills fans, that only amounts to 4,500 tickets. The Miami management also know there are fewer tickets sold on StubHub and less still on VividSeats.
"So 33,000 is a pretty big stretch," a source told OutKick, referring to what accounts for the 50 to 52 percent of capacity figure.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 01: Fans react during the second quarter of a game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)
Bills Fans Will Indeed Be Present
The Dolphins this season are averaging 10,000 tickets sold on Ticketmaster's secondary market per game. The average number of secondary tickets being sold per day for this game was at about 550.
To be realistic, the Dolphins do believe between 10,000 to 12,000 Bills fans will be at Sunday's night's game based on their secondary ticket market estimates.
But the club knows it could be worse were it not for some club policies.
The Dolphins, unlike many other teams, don't sell tickets to brokers. The team also tracks how many tickets their season ticket members resell. If the number of resales passes a certain threshold, the club will not renew the season ticket subscription the following season. That policy has been in place for years.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 1: Fans stand to watch a play between Buffalo and Miami at Highmark Stadium on October 1, 2023 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Bills Mafia Present But Not Dominant
So the number of available Dolphins tickets on the secondary market is lower than most teams. Miami does all this to keep Dolphins games for Dolphins fans to whatever degree is possible.
That doesn't mean Miami season ticket holders don't go ahead and resell their tickets at times. But this year, through Dec. 22, the Dolphins had the fourth-lowest number of tickets resold on the Ticketmaster secondary market in the NFL.
So, again, 33,000 Bills fans for Sunday night's game is unlikely. It's possible the 10,000-12,000 Bills fans the Dolphins do expect may sound loud depending on what's happening on the field. They may look imposing if they're all sitting together behind the Bills bench.
But the Dolphins are quite certain those Buffalo fans will be outnumbered.