Would USC Really Fire Lincoln Riley After A Disappointing 2024?

It's no secret that 2024 could be a turning point season for the USC Trojans. 

The USC program enters a loaded Big Ten Conference after a disastrous 7-5 record in 2023. Even beyond the conference slate, the Trojans might have the hardest schedule in the country. An season opening matchup against the LSU Tigers, a road game against the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines, plus Penn State, Washington, Notre Dame, UCLA and Wisconsin. 

It'd be a gauntlet even for the best of teams, and USC is not the best of teams. The Trojans' problems have been exacerbated by a well below-average approach to NIL money and thus, disappointing recruiting. Still though, it's just year three under head coach Lincoln Riley and with a brand new defensive staff, he'll have a runway to fix the trajectory of the program…right?

Not according to college football analyst Paul Finebaum.

"I don't think Lincoln Riley has a path back," Paul Finebaum said in a recent interview on WJOX in Birmingham.

"It's not a matter of wishing him bad luck out there. That's already happening," Finebaum continued. "And if you look at the reality, the number of players that are bailing on Lincoln Riley in Southern California is startling."

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

USC Has Nowhere To Go From Lincoln Riley

Finebaum's dislike for Riley is well established at this point. And there are certainly reasons to be distrustful of the job he's done at USC and where the program is headed. Given the 2024 schedule, it's possible USC finishes 8-4 and still has a successful season with clear, distinct improvements.

The issue with Finebaum's predictions; that USC would fire Riley after 2024, is that it ignores several financial and broader coaching realities. USC sunk tens of millions of dollars into Riley and his coaching staff. Sure, they're a wealthy program, but even the wealthiest of schools has their limit. Firing Riley wouldn't just mean paying out the remainder of his deal, or whatever buyout terms are written into it, but the deals of his new defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn and co-defensive coordinator Eric Henderson.

It would also make Riley a scapegoat for recruiting issues that aren't exactly his fault. The head coach's job is to identify and recruit players, it's the school and the NIL collective's job to make competitive financial offers. USC hasn't done that with any consistency. And without elite recruits, it's hard to achieve elite results.

USC is still USC, and the Trojans wouldn't have a difficult time finding a new coach, but what type of elite head coach, the type USC would target, would take the job after seeing Riley fired after three seasons? Especially knowing that the NIL failures aren't entirely his doing.

Who also, would USC target? Who has a better track record than Riley? Yes, there are holes to pick in his resume, but he's made three College Football Playoff appearances, has a 74-18 career record and won the Big 12 four times. Kirby Smart isn't leaving Georgia, Ryan Day isn't leaving Ohio State, Dabo Swinney isn't leaving Clemson, why would say, Dan Lanning leave Oregon for USC?

Is USC coaxing Nick Saban out of retirement? Where do they go from here?

That's the issue with professing that Riley is out after 2024 if the season doesn't go well. It's not reasonable, feasible, and it may not even be the best thing competitively for USC.