Will Terrible World Series Ratings Force MLB To Reconsider Playoff Format?

We're in year two of the new postseason format in MLB, and the results have been mixed, to say the least.

For the second consecutive year, the majority of division winners flamed out early, with non-Astros teams finishing with a woeful 1-9 record in the division series round. The 2022 playoffs were similarly bad, with the non-Astros teams finishing 5-8. Combined, the "better" teams have gone 6-17 in the NL and ALDS over the past two seasons.

Two hard-fought, seven-game league championship series resulted in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers advancing to the World Series. That meant MLB would have its sixth different champion since 2018. On paper, that would seem to be something that generates a substantial amount of neutral fan interest.

But in reality, it's been the exact opposite.

Ratings for this year's World Series have been abysmal. Really abysmal.

Game two was the lowest-rated World Series game in history. For two whole days, until game three became the new lowest-rated World Series game in history. That's a real problem for MLB, and it raises further questions as to just how sustainable this postseason format is going forward.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 26: A detail shot of the World Series logo is seen during the World Series Workout Day at Globe Life Field on October 26, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

MLB's Postseason Incentivizes Randomness, Not Stars Or Big Spending

As we've seen over the past two years, spending big money on free agents in order to win the most games in the regular season is functionally useless when the calendar turns to October.

The Dodgers won 111 games in the 2022 regular season, only to lose three out of four to a surging San Diego Padres team. Both the Braves and Mets won 101 games each in the regular season and neither made it to the NLCS.

The gap between teams in baseball is just too small; there's essentially no such thing as an upset when the odds in any individual game rarely deviate from 55-58% win probability. And it's far different from the NFL or NBA, where big name players like Patrick Mahomes or Steph Curry almost guarantee a deep postseason run.

The Rangers-Diamondbacks matchup isn't surprising, because that's how baseball works. But with that unpredictability comes a significantly higher likelihood of ratings disasters. Exactly like we're seeing now.

For MLB, the best case ratings scenario would mean the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs are involved in the World Series. But the league's new playoff format makes it harder than ever for those types of teams to make it that far. The more teams that make the tournament, the more random the results. Which is exactly what we're seeing play out.

Teams like the Diamondbacks have little star power, making for a fun guessing game of "name an Arizona player."

READ: I DARE YOU TO NAME ME ONE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS PLAYER WITHOUT GOOGLING

Even the Rangers, despite their spending, have one star player, Corey Seager, who doesn't rise to the level of Judge, Ohtani or Bryce Harper.

So what will the league do about it?

Changes Coming?

Rob Manfred already said during this World Series that he likes the new format and thinks the drama of random, coin-flip games is good for the sport.

It certainly may help smaller market teams that would previously have seen the World Series as an unreachable goal. But money talks, and ratings means money.

MLB may be happy that they're encouraging more parity, but parity, likely more often than not, is going to lead to matchups that have significantly lower national appeal.

That doesn't mean that the World Series should exclusively be played between the Yankees and Dodgers, but if the league doesn't want to continue breaking bad records, they may have to give teams with better regular season records more opportunities. Because more often than not, those better regular season teams will have more recognizable stars or come from bigger markets.

NLCS ratings for the Phillies-Diamondbacks were huge, beating out the NBA's Opening Night schedule. Philadelphia is a big market with recognizable names, and a national fanbase of Philadelphia expats. Clearly, interest in baseball is still substantial, but remove the star power and big-name teams, and you're left with the ratings debacle we're currently seeing.

The league could move to make the division series rounds a best-of-7, which would increase revenue with more playoff games. If they really wanted to give those teams an advantage, they could start the division series by giving a 1-0 lead to the better regular season team. Something that even Max Scherzer's reportedly brought up in meetings. Home field clearly doesn't matter, considering that road teams have won roughly 60% of the games this postseason.

Regardless, ratings this bad are a big, flashing red light for MLB. They may not care about devaluing the regular season or incentivizing further investment. But they sure do care about making more money, and changing the format may be their best chance to recover some of the dramatic decline we're seeing this year.