Why Are There No Good Teams In Baseball This Year?

There's less than two months remaining in the 2024 Major League Baseball season and throughout the sport, it seems clear that parity has taken over.

In years past, the "best team in baseball," or the best teams in baseball, have been obvious. In 2023, the Atlanta Braves won 104 games, the Baltimore Orioles won 101 and the Los Angeles Dodgers won 100. Tampa Bay won 99, while outscoring their opponents by 195 runs on the season.

The 2022 Dodgers won 111 games, with one of the best run differentials in baseball history at +334. Houston won 106, the Yankees won 99, and the Braves and Mets both passed 100. 2021 also featured three teams with more than 100 wins, including the 107-win Giants and 106-win Dodgers.

Yet in 2024, the "best" team through early-August is the Cleveland Guardians, who are on pace for "just" 96 wins and have a run differential that corresponds to that of an 93-win team. No team is on pace to win more than 100 games, and per Baseball-Reference's simple rating system, there's just one team, the Yankees, more than a run per game better than the average MLB team.

So what's going on? Where have all the good teams gone?

May 4, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) hits a solo home run against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Incentives, Pitching Development Create Parity

The simplest explanation for the decrease in elite teams is the incentive structure within Major League Baseball. With the addition of the third wild-card spot, it's easier than ever to reach the postseason. In 2023, for example, the Arizona Diamondbacks won just 84 games and were outscored on the season, but secured the all-important sixth playoff spot. And then went to the World Series.

The fact that it's now possible to make the playoffs as a relatively mediocre team has encouraged some owners, particularly in smaller markets, to invest just enough in their rosters to get to the 80-85 win threshold. A few breaks go your way, avoid some injuries, and you can sneak into a wild card spot and potentially get hot at the right time.

The free agency investments that might have been avoided as unnecessary expenditures now provide valuable depth for a team hoping to chase an extra win or two. The Royals, for example, signed Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, two relatively expensive veterans that an organization like Kansas City would previously have avoided. Lugo, at 34, is having the best season of his career, and the Royals are squarely in position to reach October baseball.

Sure, the 2023 San Diego Padres spent a ton of money to compete with the Dodgers, but they jettisoned Juan Soto and cut payroll significantly and still find themselves in the playoff hunt, if the season ended today. It's easier than it's ever been to make the playoffs, and owners and front offices are responding.

There's the cliche that a rising tide lifts all boats, but in this case, it's true. The middle class of both leagues is now higher than it was before. Because of that, there's now a lot fewer easy wins on the schedule than there used to be. Except for the Chicago White Sox, of course.

It's not just that; as analytics have proliferated, teams have also turned to pitch development and design to improve their staffs. With the increase in velocity, tougher pitches and better strategy, it's also easier for middle-class teams to build a rotation that keeps them in close games. Pitching is the great equalizer; for example when Paul Skenes starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are 56-55 and have been outscored on the season, their win probability over any team in baseball is better than 50%.

Teams have followed the analytical example set by the Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, and in doing so, closed the gap.

There's still time for one team to separate itself; the Phillies and Yankees have at times looked like the clear "best" team. And of course, the Dodgers still have an immense amount of talent, especially if their injury concerns clear up in the next few weeks. But the clear lack of an elite group this season could make for a thrilling stretch run and postseason. Several division races could go down to the wire, and jockeying for playoff seeding should continue until the final day of the season.

Parity means there's less to be amazed by, but it can also create variety. Based on the results thus far, that's exactly what we're going to get.