What Can We Learn From Week One Of College Football?

Week one of college football is officially in the books. So what can we learn from it?

It's easy to overreact to the first set of games; teams are figuring out new schemes, there's more obvious mistakes, penalties and player rotations can be inconsistent, and sloppiness abounds. But there are things that can be learned, and thanks to advanced analytics, we can react without putting too much weight on just one game.

For example, the biggest winners of Week One were Notre Dame, Miami, USC, and Georgia. While Oregon, Michigan and even Ohio State didn't quite live up to preseason expectations.

What does that do to their rankings and expectations for the rest of the season? Not too much, actually.

ESPN's S&P+ week one update came out on Tuesday, and USC jumped up from 23rd in the preseason all the way to…21st. Oregon still ranks in the top 10, Ohio State in the top 5, and Notre Dame barely moved. How can that be? Because data doesn't overreact to small samples.

Las Vegas, Nevada, Sunday, September 1, 2024 - USC Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) celebrates a 27-20 win over the LSU Tigers with teammate in the Modelo Vegas Kickoff Classic at Allegiant Stadium. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Don't Jump To Conclusions Ahead Of Week Two

Fans are prone to hyperbole; one loss should put a coach on the hot seat, a one possession win is a clear sign of superiority, turnover luck is nonexistent, and on and on. 

But that's what data's for, to provide perspective that fans and analysts lack. And as impressive as USC's win was over LSU, and it was undeniably impressive, it was just a one-possession game and not enough to fully overcome the brutal preseason projections for the Trojans defense based on their performance in 2023. 

The talent at Ohio State and Oregon put both of them squarely in the College Football Playoff discussion; one week of underwhelming performance isn't going to change that. Though two or three might. Similarly, Notre Dame outplayed Texas A&M, but struggled for most of the game, making their win less important analytically than in would have been otherwise. In other words, how you play is just as important as who you play.

That said, a few more weeks of USC's defense playing at an elite level will meaningfully change their projections moving forward and the prognosis for the rest of the season. Oregon struggling, or Michigan getting blown out by a strong Texas team would also move the needle. But to answer the question of what we can learn from week one, the answer, disappointingly, is not much.

Unless you're a Florida State fan, there's no reason to panic after week one. Your team probably is who you thought they were. Save the panic for weeks three, four and five. There's plenty of time to fire off those angry message board posts.