Vlad Guerrero Jr Doesn't Seem Likely To Stay In Toronto
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a homegrown superstar, signed and developed by the Toronto Blue Jays. He's coming off the second-best offensive season of his career, hitting .323 with a .396 on base percentage and .544 slugging percentage.
He's also set to become a free agent after the 2025 season, and will hit the open market at just 27-years-old. That's a starter kit for an extension to stay home…right?
But Guerrero told reporters this week that he and the team had failed to come to an agreement prior to his deadline.
"They have their numbers; I have my numbers," Guerrero said. When asked if they were close, he added, simply, "No."
For their part, the Blue Jays and General Manager Ross Atkins said they did their best and offered a "record-setting" deal. Apparently, it wasn't enough.
"I am confident that we exhausted the communication, the ideas, the thoughts and communicated every dollar," Atkins said Tuesday. "... The offers that we made for Vlad would've been record-setting and would've made him one of the highest-paid players in the game."
Whatever the reason, the failure to reach an agreement makes it a near certainty that Guerrero is wearing a different uniform sooner rather than later.
TORONTO - Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Justin Turner (2) douses first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) with ice water after a win over the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on April 16, 2024. PHOTO: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Could Vladimir Guerrero Jr Be A Trade Candidate?
Per Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, one comparison made by Guerrero and his representation was the San Diego Padres 14-year, $340 million deal with Fernando Tatis Jr. It's not clear if Guerrero wanted a figure in that range, or even more. And it's debatable whether he's worth it.
Guerrero is a big bodied first base/designated hitter. The aging curve on those kinds of players is bad, to say the least. But he's still young enough that a long-term deal could be beneficial for the majority of the contract. That said, he's also just one year removed from a down season, where he was worth just 1.3 WAR, per Fangraphs. Valuing that type of player is hard. Especially in free agency.
Where it isn't hard? Short term trade acquisition cost.
Guerrero says he wants to be in Toronto for the rest of his career, though the lack of an agreement clearly rubbed him the wrong way.
"Listen, I want to be here. I want to be a Blue Jay for the rest of my career," Guerrero said. "But it's free agency. It's business. So I'm going to have to listen to 29 more teams and they're going to have to compete for that."
With those seemingly ominous words in mind, if Toronto isn't in contention midway through the season, it could make more sense to trade Guerrero. It sounds like he's more than willing to leave anyway, and a major prospect haul could help reset their beleaguered farm system.
Either way, it's hard to blame Toronto too much; Guerrero clearly didn't see Pete Alonso test the open market before re-signing on a very moderately priced deal in New York. But it also sets the stage for a very difficult separation for Blue Jays fans. Maybe as soon as a few months from now.