Could Vikings-Lions Scenario Make NFL Re-Think Playoff Seeding?
The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will play a hugely important Week 18 game against one another, despite both teams having already secured NFL postseason berths.
The reason is that the 14–2 Vikings and 13–2 Lions are both able to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage in both the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds, should the team make it that far.
If the Lions beat the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football in the final game of Week 17, then the NFL is guaranteed to have an incredibly bizarre scenario.
While the winner of the Lions-Vikings game in the final week earns the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the loser falls to fifth. Not only would that squad miss out on the bye and home-field advantage, but it would have to go on the road in the Wild Card round.
Could the NFL make changes to its postseason seeding thanks to the situation unfolding between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings?
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That seems like a harsh punishment for a team that could finish the season at 14-3. Especially since the team that they would go on to face would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Atlanta Falcons. The best record that either of those two teams can finish with is 10-7 (Tampa Bay).
If the Bucs lose to the Saints on Sunday, the NFC South winner is going to finish the season at 9-8. Is it fair that a 9-8 (or even a 10-7 team, for that matter) gets to host a home playoff game even if they have a record that's potentially four or five games worse than their opponent?
NFL playoff seeding debate heats up thanks to the Detroit Lions, the Minnesota Vikings and the dominant NFC North
This isn't the first time this discussion has come up. The NFL has had several division winners finish with records below .500 and still get to host at least one playoff game.
The last time it happened was 2022, when the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosted the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card. The Cowboys beat the Bucs 31-14.
The league wants to reward teams for winning a division, and that makes sense.
But is the reward too great? That's the big question. While the NFC South winner is guaranteed to finish above .500, they're going to play at least a 13-win NFC North opponent at home.
Either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Atlanta Falcons are going to host an NFC North team (Vikings or Lions) with a better record in the NFL playoffs.
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Why are the Vikings or the Lions being punished for playing in a better division? In addition to being several games better than the NFC South winner, it's also conceivable that the NFC North second-place team could have the second-best record in the entire conference.
There's an obvious solution here, too. The NFL wants to reward division winners, so it should grant a guaranteed playoff berth to all eight division winners.
But, it should take the seven playoff teams in each conference and seed them based on record. If the league did that this season, it would be possible that three NFC North teams would have a home game in the Wild Card round.
Some people might not like the sound of that, but why not? The division earned it. Four of the Packers' five losses this season came against the Vikings and Lions. They are 11-1 against the rest of the NFL. In fact, the Lions, Vikings and Packers have four combined losses against teams not in the NFC North.
Yet, two of those teams have to play a road Wild Card game. Why? Because that's the way it's always been?
It's time for the NFL to finally make a change and reward on-field performance rather than stick to decades-old tradition.