U.S. Open Storylines: Pinehurst's Return To Glory, First-Time Major Winner Trend, Can Scheffler Be Slowed Down
The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2. There may not be a better, more quintessentially American sentence in all of golf than that one. It is impossible not to be excited about the year's third major championship returning to one of the great courses in the country after a decade-long hiatus, and if history holds, we're in store for a classic and difficult U.S. Open yet again.
While the golf course will be the main character this week just as the USGA wants it to be, 1B on that list will be Scottie Scheffler. Not only is he entering the week a winner of five of his last eight tournaments, including last week's Memorial, but this will be his first major appearance since being arrested during last month's PGA Championship.
Scheffler seems to very much have fate on his side in 2024, but he'll be battling a very real trend we've seen over the last five years when it comes to U.S. Open winners that would suggest he would shockingly be kept out of the winner's circle come Sunday.
It may turn into a Scheffler-centric week, but heading into the tournament there are plenty of other storylines to get into before the first ball is in the air on Thursday morning.
Pinehurst No. 2: A Sight For Sore Eyes
A month ago, we saw players turn Valhalla Golf Club into a pitch-and-putt with Xander Schauffele winning the PGA Championships at 21-under. It left a bad taste in the mouths of people across the golf world as it did not represent the challenge everyone wants to see at a major championship venue. The amount of rain the golf course received throughout the week didn't help, but the overarching takeaway being ‘that was too easy' is never a great one.
Pinehurst No. 2 will be the exact opposite of what we witnessed at Valhalla.
Pinehurst No. 2 should be an incredible test for the 2024 U.S. Open. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
In the three previous U.S. Opens held at the North Carolina golf course (1999, 2005, 2014) a total of four players have finished the tournament under par. The USGA always wants the winning score of the U.S. Open to be right around even par, and its efforts at Pinehurst have been a great representation of that.
Eighteen players finished under par during the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. The USGA will be on a revenge tour this time around, and an old-school golf course with greens that mimic upside-down cereal bowls is quite the canvas.
You'll be sick and tired of hearing about the slope of the greens and the nasty run-off areas that surround them by the end of the week, but they're the biggest defense and the most iconic pieces to the puzzle that is Pinehurst. The only water that may find the golf course throughout the week is rainfall as it should be a browned-out U.S. Open where approach shots hitting the greens will sound like rocks being thrown on concrete.
Can Someone Slow Down Scottie Scheffler?
Notice that the headline here doesn't question whether someone can take down Scottie Scheffler this week, but instead asks if a player can even slow him down.
Over his last eight starts, Scheffler has won five times and has gotten beaten by just nine golfers in that span. Nine.
Scottie Scheffler is a massive favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Open, and understandably so. Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports
His odds to win the Masters in April were around 4-1, and he delivered by winning his second green jacket. This week his odds to win the U.S. Open opened at 3-1, which are wild in their own right, but even more so when you remember that the U.S. Open field will feature 156 players compared to just 89 in this year's Masters.
More players to beat, on what should be a much stiffer test, yet his odds are lower. This is a testament that Scheffler only gets better when the conditions get tougher. Just look at how uber-firm Augusta National was over the weekend this year, and he went on to win by four shots.
Scheffler has finished T-7, T-2, and third over the last three U.S. Opens. As long as he doesn't decide to putt with his eyes closed this week, every single factor you can come up with points to Scheffler winning what will be his third career major championship.
The First-Time Major Winner Trend In The U.S. Open
The only thing going against Scheffler is a U.S. Open trend that, in reality, has absolutely nothing to do with this year's championship.
Dating back to 2009, 12 of the last 15 U.S. Open winners have been first-time major champions. More specifically, that trend has carried on for each of the last five years after Wyndham Clark held off Rory McIlroy in Los Angeles a year ago.
Wyndham Clark poses with the championship trophy after winning the 2023 U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Again, this trend should have no impact on this year's U.S. Open, but the same thing could have been said last year, and the year before that, and so on.
A look down the odds board, and of the Top 10-ish favorites, Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, and Tommy Fleetwood are names the sportsbooks like as players who could keep the streak of maiden major winners at the U.S. Open alive.
Jon Rahm And His Apparent Foot Injury
As if 2024 could get any more peculiar for Jon Rahm, the Spaniard withdrew during this past week's LIV Houston event in the middle of the second round with an apparent foot injury. He was playing fine at 3-under par when he pulled out of the event with the LIV broadcast noting that he was dealing with a cut between his toes.
Playing golf in a very warm and humid Houston with apparent cuts between your toes is a less-than-ideal situation and it will be interesting to see how it affects him in his preparation for Pinehurst where it will reach 90 degrees throughout tournament week.
Rahm, who won the 2021 U.S. Open, has been a non-factor in each of the year's first two majors with a T-45 finish at the Masters followed by a missed cut at Valhalla.
Xander Schauffele And His New Vibe
While criticisms of the 2024 PGA Championship not being a stiff enough major championship test are valid, the fact of the matter is that Xander Schauffele still performed better than anyone else that week and hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday evening.
While Schauffele has made one start since winning at Valhalla - a T-8 at last week's Memorial - things will undoubtedly feel a bit different for him in his first major start since becoming a major winner himself.
Plenty of eyes will be on the World's No. 2 player to see how he performs on an incredibly difficult course setup with a new asterisk next to his name. If history tells us anything, Schauffele should be right in the mix come Sunday as he has managed six Top 10 finishes in his seven career starts in the U.S. Open.
Rory McIlroy And The Unwanted Streak
When Rory McIlroy steps to the first tee on Thursday it will mark 3,595 days - or over 118 months - since he last won a major championship in 2014.
While there have been numerous occasions of him showing form heading into an opportunity to put an end to his major-less streak, this year's U.S. Open has that same feel to it given how well he's played as of late.
In 13 starts this year, McIlroy has picked up two wins and a pair of other Top 5 finishes, including a T-4 finish at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago. His statistics back up his strong run of play, as well as he ranks third in strokes gained: total on Tour, second in total driving, and a respectable 39th in strokes gained: putting.
McIlroy ending a decade-long streak of not winning a major championship on what could be one of the stiffer U.S. Open tests in recent memory seems unlikely, but then again, nobody predicted him to go 10 years without winning another major championship either. He has finished no worse than T-9 in each of the last five U.S. Opens.
A Spot For Jordan Spieth To Show Some Life?
A missed green at Pinehurst is going to force players to get creative around the greens, and when you think creativity with a wedge in hand you think Jordan Spieth.
Maybe Jordan Spieth can find his footing at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst. Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Network
The only issue is that Spieth hasn't exactly been great this season. He's managed three Top 10 finishes in 15 starts, but has also missed five cuts, including last week at the Memorial. The anomaly for the 2024 version of Spieth is that he's been great off the tee, ranking 11th on Tour in strokes gained in that category, but his approach game has been well below Tour average.
In the past, his ability to get up-and-down has bailed him out, but not in 2024 as he's 123rd on Tour in scrambling and 111th in that category from 10 yards and in. The putting hasn't been the issue, either, as he's 55th on Tour in strokes gained with the flatstick.
Outside of his U.S. Open victory in 2015, Spieth has never finished inside the Top 15 in the event. That's a peak Jordan Spieth experience statistic.
Bryson DeChambeau's Follow-Up Act
In one of the most unexpected turns of events in recent golf history, Bryson DeChambeau has become more likable since joining LIV Golf. He's ditched the idea of turning his entire persona into downing protein shakes and trying to become the strongest person to ever swing a golf club, and instead just played really entertaining golf and stayed out of his own way.
His performance at the PGA Championship was a great representation of that, as he was by far and away the most entertaining player on the property for the week and capped that off with a runner-up finish to Schauffele. Now, we get to watch to see if he can keep the momentum moving in a positive direction by being in the mix come the weekend on a golf course he can't overpower.