The Wrong, The Sad, And The Smugly: Revisiting Bold 2023 F1 Predictions
The 2023 Formula 1 season is behind us, and it's time to see how my preseason predictions panned out.
Just before the opening race, I made some bold predictions for what was ahead in 2023. While I was hoping they'd prove to be scarily clairvoyant, the results ranged from "Hey there, guy. That was a good guess!" to "My God, does that guy even watch F1?!"
Let's take a look-see, shall we?
Logan Sargeant had a tough rookie debut, but the team was able to secure P7 in the constructors standings. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Williams
Prediction: P8 In The Standings
Outcome: They Did One Place Better!
I had the sense that Williams was in for a year of improvement, but I thought P8 may have been the ceiling for them. Nope. They had P7 on their minds and dammit if they didn’t go out and make it happen.
It was a tail of two Williamses at times. That FW45 was an absolute rocket ship on tracks where a low-downforce setup pays dividends. Think Monza, or, as we recently learned, Las Vegas.
Alex Albon was one of the stars of the season in a lot of peoples’ minds (mine included) and he turned in the kind of drives the team needed whenever possible.
On the other hand, it was a tough rookie campaign for American rookie Logan Sargeant. The team has yet to make a call on his future, and I can’t imagine anyone being any more on the bubble. I thought he threw down some drives and that looked worthy of a seat in F1. However, there were a lot of rookie mistakes that cost the team a lot of money in damages, That’s a problem with the cost cap.
I’d love to see him stick around, and surely, they’d love some consistency as well but we’ll see which route the team goes.
Results
Drivers: Albon, P13 - 27 points; Sergeant P21 - 1 point
Constructors: P7 - 28 points
I owe Yuki Tsunoda a big apology after thinking Nyck De Vries would finish ahead of him this season. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
AlphaTauri
Prediction: De Vries will beat Tsunoda Head-To-Head
Outcome: Nope
This… this was a bad one.
I’m a big fan of Yuki Tsunoda, and if I ever run into him I’m buying him a Negroni (he’s a big Negroni guy) because I did him dirty.
I thought for sure Nyck De Vries would hit the ground running, and he did not do that. Yeah, the car was terrible for most of the season, but not only de De Vries not outscore Tsunoda, he made it 10 races before he fell victim to the sword of Red Bull senior advisor Helmut Marko.
Next up was Daniel Ricciardo who had a solid return to an F1 seat, and once he broke his wrist Liam Lawson got a few race starts under his belt and was phenomenal.
AlphaTauri started to turn it on toward the end of the year, with Tsunoda throwing down a particularly strong weekend in Aby Dhabi, hopefully, that upward trajectory continues.
Of course, with the season over it’s time to say goodbye to the AlphaTauri name and it sounds like Racing Bulls could be the new name.
There are also plans for the new team to move operations to the UK to work closer with their parent team Red Bull. And why wouldn’t they? They just built the most dominant car ever in the RB19. Racing Bulls or whatever they’re called next year should take every part they’re allowed to from Red Bull from here on out.
Results
Drivers: Tsunoda, P14 - 17 points; Ricciardo, P17 - 6 points; Lawson, P20 - 2 points; De Vries, P22 - 0 points
Constructors: P8 - 25 points
Man, I really wanted my prediction that Nico Hulkenberg would get a long-awaited podium to come true. (Photo by Michael Potts/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
Haas
Prediction: Podium For Hulkenberg
Outcome: Bold But No Cigar
Of all the predictions I made before the season, the one I wanted to see come true the most was this one. Nico Hulkenberg deserves a podium, dammit!
Unfortunately, it wasn’t in the cards for Hulk this year, but Haas still should have some decent form at times, despite coming home in last place in the standings.
Hulkenberg and teammate Kevin Magnussen both put up some points performances, but the car shined on Saturdays. Oddly enough, the trait of the VF23 that made it great in qualifying made it a handful on Sundays.
The car was one of the best at heating its tires, which meant that when it came to single-lap pace, Guenther Steiner’s boys were tough to beat. However, when it came to long runs — y’know, like in a Grand Prix — the Haas cars essentially cannibalized their tires and no matter how high they started on the grid, they had usually tumbled a few spots by the end of the opening stint.
The team was obviously hip to this and probably tried to work it out with upgrades, but perhaps we’ll see a Haas with some better long-run pace on the grid next season.
Results
Drivers: Hulkenberg, P16 - 9 points; Magnussen, P19 - 3 points
Constructors: P10 - 12 points
It was a fairly harmonious season for Aston Martin. More so when they were getting podiums though. (Photo by Edmund So/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)
Aston Martin
Prediction: Fernando Alonso Will Get Annoyed With His Team, Teammate, or Owner Before The Summer Break
Outcome: Kinda-Sorta, Just Not Quite That Early
Well, I was kind of right on this one. Fernando never really had a blowout with anyone, however, he did become increasingly agitated with the AMR23, and for good reason.
Coming out of testing in Bahrain, that car was hands down the second-best car on the grid behind only the Red Bull. Through the first two races, Alonso and his Aston Martin were the only non-Red Bulls on the podium.
Plus, team morale was high after Lance Stroll drove the first race with broken wrists, in a stunning display of guts.
There were plenty more podiums to come (8 in total, all of Alonso) but the car lost a step as others — namely McLaren — catapulted past them in the development race.
They regained some form late but it wasn’t quite good enough to beat McLaren for P4.
Aston Martin got a taste for running at the front this year, and they’re still on Fernando’s good side. I would not be surprised to see them get off to another strong start in 2024
Results
Drivers: Alonso, P4 - 206 points; Stroll, P10 - 74 points
Constructors: P5 - 260 points
You may not have realized this, but Alfa Romeo did compete in F1 this year. We just seldom heard about them. (Photo by Song Haiyuan/MB Media/Getty Images)
Alfa Romeo
Prediction: Midfield Leaders
Outcome: They Were Practically Invisible
I thought Alfa Romeo could lead the midfield this year and I was way off. I know Haas came in last, but I would consider Alfa Romeo my most disappointing team this year because they were practically invisible all year.
They didn’t excel on Saturday or Sunday they were just kind of there every weekend wasting away at the back of the pack. That’s a real step backward.
Sure there were a few bright spots, most notably when drivers Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri “Assman” Bottas qualified P5 and P7 respectively in Hungary. As great as that was, they both finished outside the points with Bottas in P12 and Zhou in P16.
The team brought a car that was a bit of a dud this year, which is a shame because I think they’ve got an underrated driver lineup that could probably make do with a mediocre car. Unfortunately, this year’s Alfa Romeo was very mediocre.
Just like AlphaTauri, we’ll be saying goodbye to the Alfa Romeo name in 2024 too. They’re expected to change the name back to Sauber, but it will change in 2026 once again when they become Audi’s works team.
Results
Drivers: Bottas, P15 - 10 points; Zhou, P16 - 6 points
Constructors: P9 - 16 points
McLaren went from being backmarkers to podium contenders in just a few months. (Photo by Dan Istitene - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
McLaren
Prediction: A Tumble Out Of The Midfield
Outcome: Didn’t Account For The Second Half Surge
Now, I made these predictions the week of the first Grand Prix, and so I only had testing to base anything on. So, with that in mind, and what we saw in the first few races, guessing that McLaren might spend most of the year laboring away at the back of the field was not insane.
Not insane, but still incorrect.
What I didn’t account for were two things. The first was that McLaren won the in-season development race and spent the second half of the year that was capable of qualifying on the first two rows just about every weekend, and even competing for podiums.
The second was the stellar performances thrown down by rookie Oscar Piastri. We all knew what Lando could do, but the previous two McLaren cars had been unwieldy for even a seasoned vet like Daniel Ricciardo. Well, the youngest driver on the grid was one of the most impressive and even won one of the season’s sprint races.
Barring another preseason step backward, McLaren should be right back at the front of the field in 2024.
Results
Drivers: Norris, P6 - 205 points; Piastri, P9 - 97 points
Constructors: P4 - 302 points
Notoriously inconsistent Alpine managed to keep things fairly cool between two drivers who aren't huge fans of each other. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)
Alpine
Prediction: Gasly And Ocon’s Notorious Beef Will Have One Flair Up, Probably More
Outcome: Yeah, But Not As Bad As Expected
There is no team in Formula 1 harder to get a read on than Alpine. I think that’s probably why I shied away from any performance-related predictions and guessed that long-time rivals Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon wouldn’t get along in their first season as teammates.
While it was mostly harmonious, there was one pretty significant flair-up that occurred late in the Japanese Grand Prix. Gasly was running P10 and asked to be let past Ocon in P9 in a bid to chase down Fernando Alonso in P8. The team let him do it, but when it was clear that he wasn’t going to catch up to Alonso, they instructed him to let Ocon through on the final lap.
Gasly later said he was “frustrated” by that and his gesticulations in the cockpit as Ocon went by would make that appear accurate. Still, if that was the blowout of the season between those too, I’m sure Alpine was happy.
What they couldn’t have been happy with was the most inconsistent and unpredictable car on the grid. They did have an impressive day at Monaco this year with Ocon taking the final step of the podium in P3 with Gasly taking points in P7. Unfortunately for them, that was a rarity.
They’d show up at a track and you never really knew if both cars would finish in the points or get eliminated in Q1. If Alpine can steer into those highs and stay away from the lows, they should have no problem leading the midfield, and maybe snatching a podium or two.
However, I feel like I’ve said that for years, and the most star-studded team off the track still can’t get it together.
Results
Drivers: Gasly, P11 - 62 points; Ocon, P12 - 58 points
Constructors: P6 - 120 points
P2 is great for anyone... unless you're Mercedes. (Photo by Edmund So/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)
Mercedes
Prediction: P3 Again… But A More Distant P3
Outcome: Almost… Thanks, Ferrari
Mercedes has an up-and-down season, and considering how bad their car the W14 was at times it's kind of incredible that they finished P2 in the constructors standings.
One place above where I predicted.
That was all thanks to a duel with Ferrari at the final race of the season, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Mercedes held a slim margin over the Scuderia who totally muffed the strategy with Carlos Sainz — who started way down the order to begin with — meaning he failed to score any points.
That was a real gift, but, incredibly, Mercedes was able to turn things around they did after switching car concepts away from their zero-sidepod design mid-season. That could've spelled disaster, so being the best of the rest is a real victory.
Of course, good luck telling that to a team that won 7 straight world titles. P2 and a winless season won't sit well with the Brackley-based team, so expect them to throw everything they've got at 2024.
Results
Drivers: Hamilton, P3 - 234 points; Russell, P8 - 175 points
Constructors: P2 - 409 points
Ferrari had a decent season, but they still tend to leave points on the table. (Photo by Clive Mason - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
Ferrari
Prediction: Leclerc Wins At Monaco
Outcome: Still Winless At Home
I thought this was Charles Leclerc's year to win his home race on the streets of Monaco. I was wrong, and it was one of his less impressive outings.
The hometown hero qualified just P3 on the road but got a 3-place penalty for impeding Lando Norris. That meant he started in P6, and because it's Monaco he stayed there.
Ferrari was the only team that wasn't Red Bull to win a race this season, and it still feels like they left a lot on the table all season long. Poor qualifying sessions sometimes left them out of position on Sunday. The car seemed to sometimes lack long-run pace and they dropped down the order.
There were also some costly crashes and errors as per usual. Still, taking Mercedes to the final Grand Prix was solid, but this is Ferrari we're talking about. They expect more out of themselves.
Results
Drivers: Leclerc, P5 - 206 points; Sainz, P7 - 200 points
Constructors: P3 - 406 points
Sergio Perez went for the win at turn 1 in the Mexican Grand Prix and... well, it obviously didn't work. (Photo by Eduardo Mendoza/Jam Media/Getty Images)
Red Bull
Prediction: Sergio Perez Wins In Mexico
Outcome: Didn’t Make It Through The First Corner
I think we all knew Red Bull would be the team to beat this season, so I made a similar prediction for them as I did with Ferrari. This time, I decided it would be the year that Sergio Perez finally won a Mexican Grand Prix.
It was not.
And not only was it not, he didn't even make it through the first corner unscathed.
However, in fairness to me (which will one day be the title of memoir) Perez made an aggressive move at the opening corner that was probably a move for the win had it been executed properly. Of course, you can't win a race on the opening corner, but you can lose one, and Perez did.
What else can you say about Red Bull? They were magnificent, and that was with Max Verstappen carrying the load. Perez needs to step it up. He ran well toward the end of the year after a miserable stretch from Monaco through early summer that tanked his title hopes.
I expect Red Bull to pick up right where they left off, and hopefully, Checo will give us a title battle next year too.
Results
Drivers: Verstappen, P1 - 575 points; Perez, P2 -285 points
Constructors: P1 - 860 points
...
And that's it for the 2023 Formula 1 season. Was it the most exciting season on record? Nope. But it had its moments. The offseason will certainly have some interesting stuff for us to look at, but in the meantime, have yourself a few Dutch national anthem-free Sundays until we get to testing and the first race in Bahrain next year.
Appreciate you tagging along with me for the 2023 season and let's do it again in 2024!
Follow on X: @Matt_Reigle