The MLB Regular Season Continues To Be Mostly Meaningless For Winning The World Series

Believe it or not, we're already nearly 20 percent of the way through the Major League Baseball season. While late-April is still early, relative to a 162-game season, it's enough of a sample size to draw at least some conclusions about what postseason baseball could look like in October.

The Chicago White Sox, for example, are well on their way to one of the worst seasons in baseball history after a 3-22 start.

READ: What's Even The Point Of The Chicago White Sox?

Similarly, the Houston Astros, considered one of the preseason favorites in the American League, have been disappointing, flailing to a 7-19 start on the back of a disastrous pitching performance. On the other side of the coin though, teams like the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles have generally lived up to expectations through the first month of the season. 

Atlanta sits at 17-6, with one of the game's best run differentials. Baltimore is 16-8 and in a tie with the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Out west, the Dodgers shook off a rough home stand, winning four in a row to push their record to 16-11. Those solid-to-exceptional starts must have made all three of those teams much more likely to win the World Series, right? Right?

Not exactly.

MIAMI - Atlanta Braves Orlando Arcia #11, Ozzie Albies #1, Ronald Acuña Jr. #13, Marcell Ozuna #20 and Matt Olson #28 before their game against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park on April 12. (Photo by Brennan Asplen/Getty Images)

MLB Has A Regular Season Problem On Its Hands

The Braves started the season with the best chance of winning the World Series, per Fangraphs' playoff odds. And after starting 17-6, those odds have barely moved. If anything, they've actually gone down slightly.

Fangraphs

Similarly, the Dodgers started the season with a 15.7% chance of winning the World Series, and as of Friday afternoon, it's…15.7%. 

Fangraphs

Just 15 percent to 18 percent of the season is still a fairly low percentage, so it's easy to dismiss the lack of changes for the Braves and Dodgers as a small sample size aberration. But it isn't.

Regular Season Wins Guarantee Nothing

In 2023, the Braves odds barely moved in the regular season; they started the season with roughly a 15 percent chance to win the World Series, and ended it around 20 percent. And therein lies the problem with the way Major League Baseball has structured its regular and post season. 

Great teams like the Braves, Dodgers or Orioles can do little to increase their probability of winning the World Series past 20 percent to 25 percent. Because the playoffs invite too much randomness and variance due to small sample sizes and minuscule talent gaps. All too often, teams like the Rangers or Diamondbacks ride a two-week long hot streak to "upsets" in series where they had 40 percent win probability.

While some fans prefer this format because of the uncertainty and opportunity for underdogs to succeed, it's made a positive regular season performance virtually meaningless. Sure, underperformance, like the 2024 Astros, can drastically lower odds due to lower postseason probabilities. But exceeding expectations is virtually irrelevant. 

If the Braves or Dodgers talented offenses and deep bullpens are supplanted with key acquisitions at the trade deadline, leading them to historic, 110-115 win seasons, their odds of winning the World Series will be mostly unaffected. Because the regular season provides so few advantages in the playoffs. 

What Can Be Done About It?

Nothing. Fans don't seem to mind the randomness, choosing instead to cling to narratives around postseason "choking" that came from a different age when teams could impact their World Series odds more significantly with regular season success. 

The commissioner and owners enjoy the revenue boost from more postseason games. And mid-level teams benefit from the randomness of playoff baseball by building mediocre teams and hoping to sneak in with the bare minimum win totals. 

Unless there's a substantial change to the playoff format; give the top-2 seeds a bye and a 1-0 series advantage, there's very little reward for meeting expectations, as the Braves and Dodgers have done to start the year. 

Oh, and for Orioles fans excited about the team's hot start, even with top prospect Jackson Holliday struggling, their World Series odds are currently around 7 percent. Enjoy the regular season wins while you can, cause it sure won't help in a few months.