Suddenly, Big Ten Race Looks Wide Open In College Football

The race to win the Big Ten Conference is suddenly wide open.

Entering the college football season, there were four favorites expected to be at the top of the conference: the Ohio State Buckeyes, defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines, the Oregon Ducks and Penn State Nittany Lions. Two weeks into the season, none of those four teams look like a lock to make the conference championship game. And it's opening the door for the surprising USC Trojans or an even more unexpected program to make a run in 2024.

In Week One, Ohio State struggled to pull away from Akron in the first half before turning it on in the second. Oregon, expected to be one of the best offenses in the country with Dillon Gabriel, entered the fourth quarter in a one-possession game against FCS Idaho. As roughly 44.5 point favorites. They held on to win 24-14, but averaged just 5.6 yards per play at home against an FCS program. 

Michigan struggled too against an over-matched opponent. After an early touchdown on a short field, the Wolverines went punt, interception, punt, punt against Fresno State. As late as 5:43 remaining in the fourth quarter, it was a one-possession game. While Penn State secured a relatively easy win over West Virginia, it was an inauspicious debut for the conference favorites. Then Week Two happened.

STATE COLLEGE, PA - SEPTEMBER 25: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks on during the second half of the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium on September 25, 2021 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Penn State, Michigan Struggle In Week Two

In the biggest game of the early season, Michigan hosted the Texas Longhorns in front of a raucous crowd at The Big House. And got blown out of the water. 

After a first quarter missed field goal, Texas took off, dominating both sides of the ball in an easy 31-12 win. It wasn't even that close. Michigan averaged just 4.3 yards per play at home, before their final drive of the game, with three turnovers, including two picks, from new quarterback Davis Warren. The Wolverines' vaunted rushing attack was virtually nonexistent with 22 carries for just 82 yards late into the 4th quarter. Their defense frequently looked over-matched, chasing down faster Texas skill position players.

Pre-garbage time, Warren had just 16 completions for 126 passing yards. At home. Some throws were woefully bad for a major college program.

That National Championship game feels like a long, long time ago.

Penn State wasn't much better.

Entering its game Saturday as 34.5 point favorites, Penn State trailed the Bowling Green Falcons at halftime, at home. The Falcons racked up 374 yards on offense with 5.8 yards per play, and while the Nittay Lions tightened up their defense in the second half, Bowling Green had the ball with a chance to take a lead with under five minutes remaining in the game.

Penn State held on to win 34-27 and averaged 7.8 yards per play, but after their defense held the Mountaineers to just 12 points, Week Two and the home opener was a clear disappointment.

Wide Open Chase For Big Ten Conference Championship

While Ohio State and Oregon play later Saturday with an opportunity to salvage a better performance for the preseason favorites, suddenly the path to a conference championship game looks a lot more open for teams like the USC Trojans. USC had one of the best wins in Week One against the LSU Tigers, and with a much improved defense and the usual Lincoln Riley offense, tough games against Michigan and Penn State look much more winnable than they did a few weeks ago.

Could Iowa, with a revamped offense of its own, be a much more dangerous team considering their relatively easy conference schedule? Outside a road game against Ohio State, the Hawkeyes don't play a single currently ranked team.

Ohio State has a wealth of talent, and Michigan's offense could make strides as Warren gets more experience. Oregon, too, has one of the best rosters in college football, but has to play both Ohio State and Michigan. 

Few things are certain through the first two weeks of the season, but given the unimpressive performances of the preseason favorites, the Big Ten looks even more uncertain than it already did.