Despite Red Flags, Sportsbooks Say Caleb Williams Is Lock To Go #1 In NFL Draft

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The Chicago Bears currently hold the #1 pick in the NFL Draft. Most experts expect them to keep that pick and make the first selection. However, even if they ultimately trade the pick, sportsbooks are clear: the team that selects number one is taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams. 

As someone who covers the NFL Draft, I can honestly say that Williams is a very tough evaluation. He has all the physical gifts that teams covet in a potential franchise quarterback. However, there are some issues with his personality and leadership abilities. Plus, there are some holes in his college tape, too. 

Despite that, sportsbooks agree that he's going to be the #1 pick in the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 25 in Detroit, Michigan. Most likely, the team that plays its home games around 250 miles west of Detroit – the Chicago Bears – will select Williams. 

Sportsbooks say USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams is a near-lock to go #1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Sportsbooks say USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams is a near-lock to go #1 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

(Jessica Alcheh/USA TODAY Sports)

According to OddsChecker.com, the longest odds at any sportsbook on Williams to go #1 is -910 at Bet Rivers (implied odds: 90% chance). The shortest odds are on FanDuel, who have installed Williams as a whopping -1600 (94% implied odds) to be the first pick in the NFL Draft. 

Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 before struggling a bit in his final season at USC. He's big, strong, athletic and has a very strong arm. All great qualities. 

But, there are questions about his pocket presence. No quarterback had more time to throw per dropback in college than Caleb Williams. Ever. In fact, the next closest to him? Current Bears quarterback Justin Fields. 

Look, I've written at length already about Williams' off-the-field issues that also could manifest on-the-field in the NFL. 

And, when you add that to some concerns about his actual on-field concerns, there should be real alarm bells going off for NFL teams.

Playing in the Pac-12 and generally facing no great defenses helped him. He's not going to be able to avoid NFL pass rushers like he did in college. 

But, teams fall in love this time of year. According to the sportsbooks, no one is falling out of love with Caleb Williams in time for the NFL Draft. 

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Dan began his sports media career at ESPN, where he survived for nearly a decade. Once the Stockholm Syndrome cleared, he made his way to OutKick. He is secure enough in his masculinity to admit he is a cat-enthusiast with three cats, one of which is named "Brady" because his wife wishes she were married to Tom instead of him.