Somehow The Best Player In Baseball Has Gotten Even Better
To say the 2024 season had a tumultuous start for Shohei Ohtani would be an understatement. While in South Korea to open the season, news broke about a sports betting scandal that eventually implicated his interpreter in the theft of millions of dollars to repay gambling debts.
But with that seemingly behind him, Ohtani's been able to focus exclusively on baseball over the past month. And the results have been, well, almost unbelievable.
Already one of the best players in the sport entering the year, Ohtani's taken his game to an entirely new level. One which has essentially not been equaled since baseball's data tracking efforts ramped up in 2015. And the Los Angeles Dodgers are taking advantage of it, in a way that his former team was never able to.
Through 37 games as a player, Ohtani's hitting .365/.435/.696, good for a 217 wRC+, meaning he's been 117 percent better than a league average hitter. Sure enough, the Dodgers are now 6.5 games up in the NL West at 25-13. And that only tells part of the story.
Los Angeles - Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani celebrates in the dugout with teammates after a home run against the New York Mets during the third inning at Dodger Stadium on April 21. Photo: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports
Shohei Ohtani Crushing The Baseball At A Nearly Unprecedented Rate
In Major League Baseball's Statcast era, since 2015, the highest hard hit percentage over any full season was, unsurprisingly, Aaron Judge in 2022. Judge hit the ball hard 61.8 percent of the time on the way to setting a new American League home run record.
So far, through Tuesday's game, Ohtani's hitting the ball hard in 62.2 percent of his plate appearances. There are obviously several months to play before the end of the season, but at this current rate, Ohtani would set a new record for highest hard hit percentage in the Statcast era.
Hit the ball hard? Generally, you'll see better results. And Ohtani is seeing exceptional results.
It's not just hard hit balls though. Ohtani also is setting a record pace for what MLB defines as "barrels."
According to Baseball Savant, "The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.
To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."
Ohtani is barreling up the ball in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances. Judge in 2022 had the highest rate in the Statcast era, hitting barrels in "just" 15.2 percent of his plate appearances. We've never seen anyone hit the ball hard with elite launch angle characteristics this consistently while being able to measure it.
Ohtani's Somehow Been Unlucky, Despite Exceptional Results
A quick look at his Baseball Savant page is almost awe-inspiring. In virtually every important offensive category, Ohtani isn't just among the best in the league, he's the best in the league.
- .505 xwOBA (expected weighted on base average) 100th percentile
- .373 xBA (expected batting average) 100th percentile
- .756 xSLG 100th percentile
- 94.9 avg exit velocity 99th percentile
- 25.2% barrel% 100th percentile
- 62.2% hard hit rate 100th percentile
- 46.2% sweet spot 98th percentile
- 100th percentile max exit velocity
- 100th percentile in xOBP
- 100th percentile in xISO
It's remarkable.
What's even more impressive is that his league leading .480 weighted on base average is actually .25 points lower than his expected wOBA, meaning that he should have even better offensive results given the quality of contact he's producing. And that .480 wOBA already leads the league by 34 points over teammate Mookie Betts.
Taking his expected on base percentage of .449 and expected slugging of .756 would give you an OPS of 1.205. No one in baseball has had an OPS over 1.200 since peak steroid era Barry Bonds in 2004.
It's only May, but we could be witnessing one of the best offensive seasons in baseball history.
Ohtani is already a two-time MVP winner, thanks in no small part to his elite abilities as a hitter and as a pitcher. But in 2024, despite being "just" a hitter, and exclusively a DH, his offensive performance has been so impressive he might be the early favorite for NL MVP even without pitching. It's hard to imagine, but somehow he's gotten even better. And now he's on a team with enough good players around him to make the playoffs for the first time in his career. Should be fun to watch.