Somehow The San Diego Padres Just Can't Stop Winning
The San Diego Padres ended the 2024 regular season on a high note, finishing with the best record in the National League in the second half. Somehow they've been even better to start 2025. And they're doing it thanks to contributions from the most unlikely pieces on the roster.
Despite finishing 2024 at 43-20, financial challenges and an ownership dispute hampered Padres GM A.J. Preller's ability to add to the roster. San Diego lost star reliever Tanner Scott to the Dodgers, rejuvenated outfielder Jurickson Profar to the Atlanta Braves, and surprising offensive force Kyle Higashioka to the Texas Rangers. Ha-Seong Kim left in free agency, and starting pitcher Joe Musgrove will miss the entire season after an injury in the 2024 playoffs.
The Padres then had a disappointing offseason, with Nick Pivetta their biggest impact acquisition. Then Yu Darvish got hurt. And budding superstar center fielder Jackson Merrill got hurt. Instead of their preferred lineup, for most of the first few weeks, the Padres have been playing White Sox castoff Gavin Sheets, the declining Jason Heyward and Martin Maldonado, one of the worst hitters in the history of Major League Baseball. Literally. Maldonado has cost his teams 166 runs on offense over his career. He's never had a season with positive offensive contribution. Not one. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Except San Diego, after yet another win over the Cubs on Monday night, is now 14-3 and 11-0 at Petco Park, the best start in franchise history. What in the world?
July 5, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) celebrates after hititng a walk-off home run during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Padres Riding Wave Of Unexpected Success
The Padres hit Gavin Sheets, who again, was non-tendered by one of the worst teams in the history of professional baseball, cleanup on Monday night. Tyler Wade, a 30-year-old journeyman who's been worth -0.1 WAR in his entire MLB career, started in center field. Their best pitcher, Dylan Cease, entered the game with an ERA over 7.
Sure enough, they beat the Chicago Cubs 10-4.
How's this happening?
It's starting with Fernando Tatis Jr., who seems fully recovered from his bout with ringworm that required PED usage. Tatis hit two homers, raising his season OPS to an Aaron Judge-like 1.011. The second-best hitter on the team thus far? Well, Gavin Sheets, of course.
Sheets, like several of his Padres teammates, has historically hurt whichever team he's been on, with a career -1.7 WAR entering 2025. Through 15 games, naturally, he has a 157 wRC+, meaning he's been 57% better than a league average hitter. His batting line, .333/.383/.524, is nearly identical to Shohei Ohtani thus far. He went 2-4 with two RBI.
Martin Maldonado, another White Sox castoff, had an 11 wRC+ in 2024, 89% worse than a league average hitter. This year? So far, his wRC+ is 87, which would be one of the best results of his career. In his age 38 season. In a pitchers park.
It's not just the hitting though; San Diego's bullpen has an MLB-best 1.57 ERA, wildly outperforming their 3.19 FIP. Pivetta, essentially the equivalent of a league-average starter, has allowed just three earned runs in 17 innings to start his Padres career.
So how sustainable is this? Are the Padres really baseball's best team, finally ready to dethrone the Dodgers at the top of the NL West? No, probably not.
Their team batting average on balls in play is in the top five in baseball. Sheets' is .400, which is virtually impossible over a longer sample. The bullpen has been extremely fortunate with runners left on base, and Pivetta's BABIP allowed is .214, compared to his .300 career line.
Early-season hot streaks don't mean much, but it certainly doesn't hurt. At the start of the regular season, the Padres' playoff odds were just 35%, per Fangraphs. Now? It's up to 62%. Yes, they've gotten lucky, but no matter how they get those wins, they're already banked. And in a very competitive race for wild card positions, that has a ton of value.