Let's Make Sense Of Vegas SEC Win Totals, With Texas Nipping At Georgia And Tennessee Looking Like A Good Buy

As the SEC goes into a transformation year with Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference, and Kalen DeBoer roaming the sidelines for Alabama, the backdrop of the conference will obviously look different for the upcoming 2024 season. 

So, what does this mean when it comes to teams achieving their goals of playing for an SEC title under new rules that has the two best teams off winning percentage battling in Atlanta? It means we're most likely going to see a decent amount of chaos in the league, if all goes according to plan. 

But while the scenery might look a little different as it pertains to playing in Austin or Norman, the expectations for the power-teams in the SEC hasn't changed. Sure, Texas and Alabama coming off appearances in the College Football Playoff help the overall pedigree of the conference, but we have at least six teams that could be vying for a spot in the new 12-team playoff format. 

Obviously, a lot has changed in just eight months since Michigan won the national title. 

Lane Kiffin has built one of the best teams during his coaching tenures at Ole Miss, and they should certainly be contending for a spot in the postseason, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart. At Alabama, yes, Nick Saban is no longer roaming the sidelines, but now an ESPN set on a weekly basis, but this doesn't take away from what Kalen DeBoer has kept in Tuscaloosa, and his additions from the transfer portal. 

DALLAS, TEXAS - JULY 15: Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Ole Miss Rebels speaks during SEC Football Media Days at Omni Dallas Hotel on July 15, 2024 in Dallas, Texas.  (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Oh, and Georgia unfortunately lost a game last season at the worst time possible that prevented them from playing for a national championship. But all Kirby Smart did was reload the roster, as we've seen on a constant basis in Athens. So, obviously there's a reason why the Bulldogs are favored to win the SEC this season, led by returning quarterback Carson Beck. 

And don't worry, I haven't forgotten about Steve Sarkisian preparing for his welcoming party to the conference this season. Unfortunately for opposing teams, he's bringing one of more talented rosters in college football with him, led by Quinn Ewers. 

Unfortunately for the hierarchy in the SEC, there are a number of teams nipping at the heels of relevancy again in this daunting conference, looking to play their way into the playoff conversation this Fall around the South, which could be a massive problem for some of the perceived dominant parties. 

Win Totals For The Perceived Top SEC Teams In 2024

The projected win totals according to Vegas for the upcoming SEC season for the number of top teams in the conference are pretty spot-on when you look at the talent that will be taking the field. If you're looking to take a gamble on one of these teams, look no further than Ole Miss. 

Most sites have the O/U set at 9.5 wins for Lane Kiffin's squad heading into the 2024 season, and taking the over is not some type of stretch. While Kiffin will perceive this as ‘rat-poison’, the Rebels head coach is not oblivious to the expectations for the upcoming season, especially with an offense that should make opposing teams nervous. 

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JULY 17: Head Coach Brian Kelly of the LSU Tigers speaks during Day 1 of 2023 SEC Media Days at Grand Hyatt Nashville on July 17, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

Even without Jayden Daniels at quarterback for LSU, and a defense that still needs to prove itself this season, the Tigers are feeling the love from odds-makers. Currently sitting at an O/U at 9.5 wins, this has more to do with the schedule than it does Brian Kelly leading his team to Atlanta for an SEC title game appearance. 

But, let's take a look at what the gambling experts are thinking when it comes to win totals for a number of teams that could potentially play for a CFP spot. 

• Georgia Bulldogs: O/U set at 10.5 wins, +175 to win the SEC
• Texas Longhorns: O/U set at 10.5 wins, +350 to win the SEC
• Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U set at 9.5 wins, +700 to win the SEC
• Ole Miss Rebels: O/U set at 9.5 wins, +800 to win the SEC
• LSU Tigers: O/U set at 9.5 wins, +1000 odds to win the SEC
• Missouri Tigers: O/U set at 9.5 wins, +2500 odds to win the SEC

After a fantastic 2023 season, it should not come as a surprise that Missouri is getting some love when it comes to finishing the year with over ten wins, which should put them in the hunt for a playoff spot. IF Brady Cook and Luther Burden can continue this run as one of the best tandems in the conference, then don’t be caught off-guard when the Tigers are in the hunt during the first weekend of November, for the twelfth playoff spot. 

COLUMBIA, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 16:  Quarterback Brady Cook #12 of the Missouri Tigers celebrates his touchdown run with wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. #1 against the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half at Faurot Field/Memorial Stadium on September 16, 2023 in Columbia, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

SEC Teams Looking To Make Some Waves In 2024

I don’t know if you can sleep on Tennessee any longer, thanks to what Josh Heupel has been able to accomplish during his tenure in Knoxville so far. The Vols defensive line should be much stronger this season, thanks to James Pearce and Omari Thomas, while that side of the ball will finally have some depth to cause problems. We know what Tennessee has on the offensive side, led by promising quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and a strong group of wide receivers. Add that to a strong group of running backs, led by Dylan Sampson, and this might look more like the 2022 offense, compared to last season. 

KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 25: Nico Iamaleava #8 of the Tennessee Volunteers leaves the field after their win over the Vanderbilt Commodores at Neyland Stadium on November 25, 2023 in Knoxville, Tennessee. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

Oh, and while we are talking about teams that should look different from an offensive standpoint this season, don't sleep on Auburn. It sounds as if Hugh Freeze is very comfortable with Payton Thorne leading the Tigers at quarterback, with Jarquez Hunter poised for bruising year at running back. I'm just saying, Auburn could surprise a few teams this season. 

So, here's a look at where the middle of the conference stands, according to the odds. 

• Tennessee Vols: O/U set at 8.5 wins, +1800 odds to win the SEC.
• Texas A&M Aggies: O/U set at 8.5 wins, +1200 odds to win the SEC.
• Oklahoma Sooners: O/U set at 7.5 wins, +2500 odds to win the SEC.
• Auburn Tigers: O/U set at 7.5 wins, +8000 odds to win the SEC

The ‘Bottom-Half’ Of SEC In 2024 Looks Entertaining

I don’t know what to say about Kentucky, it feels like the same story every season, aside from a few outliers. The Cats' brought in Brock Vandergriff to lead the offense, but the folks making these odds aren't feeling this team. Maybe it's how many chances they had before conference expansion occurred as well to make noise in the conference, but the win total projection is not going to make Kentucky fans feel any better. 

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 07: Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier during the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators on October 7, 2023 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

As for Florida, I'm sorry, but the schedule conversation has gotten old, quick, and we haven't started the season yet. There is a reason why the projected win totals are so low, but that's also a testament to what folks currently think of Billy Napier's situation. And by the way, I like Graham Mertz and the leadership he brings to this football team. But there are a number of questions about this roster, with a troubling gauntlet awaiting them. 

• Kentucky Wildcats: O/U set at 6.5 wins, +10000 odds to win the SEC
• South Carolina Gamecocks: O/U set at 5.5 wins, +10000 odds to win the SEC
• Florida Gators: O/U set at 4.5 wins, +8000 odds to win the SEC
• Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U set at 4.5 wins, +25000 odds to win the SEC.
• Miss State Bulldogs: O/U set at 4.5 wins, +50000 odds to win the SEC
• Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U set at 2.5 wins, +50000 odds to win the SEC.

Give me Vanderbilt to win three games this season, while I think South Carolina can achieve the over. As for Florida, they cannot afford to drop the opener to Miami, or this could turn into a nightmare before getting out of September. 

There you have it, win totals for the upcoming 2024 SEC season that I can assure you won’t argued about for the next few weeks before kickoff. Who am I kidding? This will be discussed like the ongoing political race, which is past the nauseating point. 

Just give us meaningful college football, and start making some bets, as we are only two weeks away from the beloved ‘Week 0’.