SEC Nine-Game Conference Schedule Is Going To Change A Lot

As part of the discussion around College Football Playoff expansion, the SEC has reportedly been discussing adjusting their conference schedules. For years, most power conferences have played nine conference games, while the SEC has played eight. 

Those days seemingly might be coming to an end. And it's going to have massive repercussions for the conference, and for college football at large.

Despite having eight conference games, the SEC has traditionally played difficult schedules. Because of the quality of the eight in-conference matchups, some programs choosing to play difficult out-of-conference games, and the general strength of the top teams.

But nine raises a whole host of new questions. With answers that might actually hurt the SEC in playoff discussions moving forward.

Greg Sankey is discussing the changes the need to be made to the College Football Playoff seeding format. (Credit: Getty Images)

SEC Conference Scheduling Raises Problems For Conference Records

The most obvious implication of moving to nine conference games is the almost certain impact to win and loss records. 

Take the example of the 2024 Ole Miss Rebels.

Ole Miss scheduled Furman, Middle Tennessee State, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern for its four out of conference games. Shockingly, they went 4-0. Wake Forest was the closest game by margin of victory, and it finished 40-6.

Ole Miss entered those four games, especially outside of Wake Forest, with 99.9% win expectancy. Replace one of those games with an SEC conference game, and that win expectancy drops, even as a favorite, to more in the 60-70% range. The problem with that is if you're 60% to win, you lose 40% of the time.

Sure enough, the Rebels went 5-3 in the SEC. Including losses to LSU and Florida, both of whom finished the year unranked. And Kentucky, which won just one SEC conference game. Ole Miss entered the LSU game favored by four points, with an implied win probability of around 65%. They lost. They had 83% win probability ahead of the Florida game. And lost. 

Because 65% and 83% is not 99.9%.

Replacing a 99.9% game with a 65-70% game, for a number of SEC teams, is going to lead to more losses. Which in turn makes the overall records look worse, which in turn means fewer playoff berths. This is the argument that Big Ten, and former Pac-12 teams, have been making for years. Play fewer conference games, have fewer losses overall. Get higher rankings as a result.

So what's the likely SEC response to this? Schedule fewer tough out-of-conference games.

While Ole Miss played an easy non-conference slate, other SEC schools didn't. Florida played Miami, Texas A&M played Notre Dame, LSU played SC, Texas went to Michigan, and so on. Those games might become a lot less common in upcoming seasons, as teams look to protect themselves from another loss, considering they now have to face another SEC team later in the season.

While the extra conference game might make for a more level playing field with the Big Ten, a net positive, it also might create fewer interesting out of conference games, a net negative.

With more losses likely, campaigning to include three loss teams is also going to become a recurring part of the playoff discussion. It was already in 2024, with Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin relentlessly complaining after going 5-3 in the SEC. But that's only going to increase with the extra conference game.

Smaller conference teams with fewer losses may also get shut out, as strength of schedule arguments become easier to make. All said and done, thanks to realignment, we're continuing to move toward a model where the Big Ten and SEC dominate. Even with higher loss totals. Whether that's good or bad is up to each fan, but the nine-game schedule is going to create more change in a sport rife with it.