San Diego Padres Trade For Dylan Cease, Continuing Bizarre Offseason

The San Diego Padres made a late splash in the trade market, just one week before their season opening series in South Korea.

After months of speculation, the Padres and Chicago White Sox finally agreed to a deal for star starting pitcher Dylan Cease, sending the 28-year-old to San Diego. All said and done, the full trade involves the Padres getting Cease, and sending top prospects Drew Thorpe, Samuel Zavala and Jairo Irairte, as well as reliever Steven Wilson to Chicago.

At first glance, the trade seems to make sense for both sides; the Padres desperately needed more starting pitching and the White Sox had no need for Cease in a rebuilding period for the organization.

But when taken in the context of the rest of the offseason, it makes a lot less sense for the Padres. And reinforces that the Padres let financial concerns rule the day and that GM A.J. Preller's reputation for impatience is very well earned.

Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)

Padres' Plan To Build Their Farm System Goes Up In Smoke

Part of the stated rationale for trading Juan Soto this offsaeson was that the Padres would be able to rebuild their farm system, while acquiring much needed pitching for upcoming seasons. Michael King and Drew Thorpe was the centerpiece of the return for Soto, with both expected to impact the rotation in 2024. Thorpe, especially, was key considering he'd be under team control for six more seasons.

Except the Padres just traded him for Cease.

It's justifiable; the team's rotation before Wednesday's trade was shaky, to say the least. Both Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish battled injuries in 2023, and with Darvish entering his age-37 season, health and effectiveness will continue to be major questions. King looked impressive as a starter in New York, but also has just 19 career starts under his belt.

Matt Waldron is also one of the weaker fifth starters in baseball, with a woeful 5.46 FIP in 41 innings in 2023. Enter Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte. Both were viewed as potential building blocks for the next 3-5 years, as young, controllable starters expected to debut in 2024. Both now play for the White Sox.

And that's what makes the Padres' offseason so confusing. The Soto trade was about team control and adding young prospect depth. That list is now significantly shorter, considering they dealt three of the top ten prospects in the system. 

Cease and King, the two major incoming players for San Diego, are both set to become free agents after 2025. It's a big risk to give up that much young, controllable talent when you still might not be good enough to make the playoffs.

Cease Brings Talent, Health To San Diego

On the positive side though, Dylan Cease is undoubtedly an above average starter. Despite a disappointing ERA in 2023, his underlying performance was still impressive. 

Cease had 214 strikeouts in 177 innings; representing 10.88 per nine innings. His FIP was 3.72, implying some bad luck was involved in his 4.58 ERA. And sure enough, his BABIP allowed was .330, compared to the league average of around .300. Cease was also excellent in 2022 and 2021, and at 28, is still in the peak of his career. 

Maybe most importantly, he has a track record of durability. For three consecutive seasons, Cease has made 32 or more starts, a rarity in modern baseball. But with pitchers, present durability is notoriously unreliable. 

Gerrit Cole, for example, has been one of the game's healthiest starters…until now, with an injury set to keep him out for 1-2 months, at least. 

READ: Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole Injuries An Ominous Sign For Yankees Season

Cease makes the Padres better this year, assuming he stays healthy. But he also might make Padres fans wonder why they didn't just keep Soto, pay a bit extra, and trade prospects for Cease regardless. It's clear by now that Preller has no interest in waiting around for them to develop anyway.