San Diego Padres Have Suddenly Turned Into Most ‘Clutch’ Team In Baseball History

It's become widely accepted knowledge within baseball that "clutch" doesn't really exist. Famously "clutch" Derek Jeter, for example, had nearly identical statistics in the regular season as he did in the playoffs. 

There's no way to predict from year-to-year which player or team will have the best statistics in high-leverage situations. Because being "clutch" is a factor of small sample size, player quality, luck, random chance and some level of skill. 

But you can make a lot of money by betting on the 2024 San Diego Padres to come through in a "clutch" situation. And we've almost certainly never seen anything like what they've done in high-leverage situations in 2024.

First, back up to 2022-2023: the Padres spend heavily, financially and in trades, to bring in big-name players like Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Josh Hader. While they made the NLCS in 2022, their 2023 season was a tremendous disappointment. And one of the key factors was their remarkably poor performance in one-run games, extra innings and high leverage. 

Fast forward to 2024, and even though much of the roster hasn't changed or was arguably downgraded, the performance has drastically changed for the better. Historically better.

Aug 9, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA;  San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) celebrates his home run against the Miami Marlins in the ninth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Padres Performance In High Leverage Beggars Belief

As a team this year in high-leverage situations, per Fangraphs, the Padres are hitting .315. The next closest team is the Kansas City Royals…they're hitting .278. As a team, the Padres OPS in high leverage situations is .928. Freddie Freeman, one of the best hitters in the sport, has a season OPS of .899. 

Their team weighted runs created plus in high leverage is 162, where league average is 100. That would be the 7th highest wRC+ if they were individual hitters. Shohei Ohtani's wRC+ is 176. The Padres in high leverage are nearly Shohei Ohtani. 

Since the All-Star break, the Padres are hitting .397 in those same situations. The OPS is 1.219, with a .478 on base percentage and .741 slugging percentage. That's a 246 wRC+, meaning the Padres team has been 146% better than league average in close, late situations. 

Since Fangraphs has started tracking these situations, it's the best performance from any team in a given year in baseball. It's quite literally unprecedented.

How has this happened? Well there's no simple explanation, because there is no explanation. It's not predictable, it's not repeatable, there's no way to explain why Jackson Merrill has hit more game tying or leading home runs in the 9th inning in his rookie season than anyone in baseball has essentially ever had in a single season. 

But it's happened. And it happened again on Saturday, as Merrill hit a game tying home run in the 8th inning against the Miami Marlins.

The Padres have gone 15-2 in their past 17 games to pull within 2.5 games of the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. Based on how they're hitting late in games, they may never lose again.