Paul Skenes Threw 9 Of 10 Fastest Pitches In MLB In 1 Start - How Long Before Surgery?
BATON ROUGE, Louisiana - The fastest gun in the West … and East, North and South … will make his second Major League Baseball start today.
The Pittsburgh Pirate rookie right-hander Paul Skenes (0-0, 6.75 ERA) will take the mound against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field at 2:20 p.m. Friday in what will be the Free Game of the Day on MLB.TV. It will also be televised by the MLB Network, SportsNet-Pittsburgh and MarQuee Sports Network-Chicago. Right-hander Kyle Hendricks (0-3, 10.04 ERA) will start for the Cubs.
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In just his first MLB start last Saturday through 84 pitches and four complete innings, the 21-year-old Skenes already has fired nine of the 10 fastest pitches recorded in the Major Leagues this season. The No. 1 pick of the 2023 MLB Draft out of national champion LSU hit at least 100 mph 17 times in a no-decision, 10-9 Pirates' win over the Cubs at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
The Pittsburgh Pirates took Paul Skenes of national champ LSU with the 1st pick of the MLB Draft in July and paid him a $9.2 million signing bonus. (Getty Images)
And six of those were 101 mph or higher.
The only other pitcher in the top 10 of fastest pitches this season is Jose Soriano, 25, of the Los Angeles Angels with one at 100.9 mph.
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"Stuff was really good," Skenes said after the game in which he struck out seven while allowing six hits with a home run, three earned runs and two walks. He threw 54 strikes.
"Just got to get ahead of hitters more consistently, but I think that'll come," he said. "I've been just trying to take it as slow as possible - minute by minute really, and just be present the whole way."
Pirates catcher Yasmani Grandal caught all the 100-plus mph pitches from Skenes, but he did notice something slow about him.
"He seems to have like a slow heartbeat," Grandal said in an MLB.com story. "That's pretty much what he looks like. I don't think the moment's ever too big for him. I thought it (debut Saturday) was a good game for him. But, we're looking forward to seeing what else he's got."
Paul Skenes Routinely Hits 100 MPH
Skenes also talks in measured tones, but he can't help but throw fast, and that is not new. He routinely hit 100 mph in going 13-2 with a 1.69 ERA at LSU last season as he led the nation in strikeouts with 209, strikeouts per nine innings with 15.3 and in WHIP at 0.75. He also broke the Southeastern Conference record for strikeouts in a season that had been around since 1989 at 202 as set by Ben McDonald - the first pick of the 1989 MLB Draft by Baltimore.
"Man, I miss those two strikeouts every inning," LSU coach Jay Johnson said Wednesday before opening the final regular season series of the year against Ole Miss. He misses the 13 wins, too. The Tigers are just 34-20 and 11-17 in the SEC after beating Ole Miss, 5-1, on Thursday. They may need to sweep the three-game series and win a few in the SEC Tournament next week in Hoover, Alabama, just to return to the NCAA postseason. With Skenes last year, LSU finished 54-17.
LSU baseball coach Jay Johnson gets a Gatorade shower after his Tigers beat Florida to win the best-of-three series for the national championship on June 26, 2023, at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska. (Getty Images)
"Every day that dude took the mound, you knew you were living the best days of your life right there," Johnson said.
Skenes hit 100 mph or higher 46 times out of his 123 pitches (77 strikes) in seven and two-thirds innings for LSU's 6-3 win over Tennessee last June at the College World Series.
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Through seven starts at Triple-A Indianapolis this season before his call-up last week, Skenes threw 98 pitches at 100 mph. He also compiled a phenomenal 0.99 earned run average with no decisions while striking out 45 in just 27 and a third innings. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning) was also a minuscule 0.91, and he allowed a .175 batting average.
"I think he'll learn from his first start and be able to build off it," Pirates' manager Derek Shelton said. "But overall, the stuff is really good."
And really fast. Just one start into his MLB career, Skenes' six 101 mph pitches already ranks him No. 14 in MLB history in that category as tracked by Statcast since its origin in 2008. Only 13 MLB starting pitchers have thrown more than six 101 mph pitches in their careers since 2008. Careers. Skenes has thrown one game in his MLB career.
But how long can he perform at such a torrid pace before the inevitable, alarmingly common "Tommy John" surgery - a procedure that reconstructs the ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow?
By the end of the 2023 MLB season, 31 of the 64 hardest throwing pitchers based on Statcast numbers had already had Tommy John surgery. Injury analyst Joe Roegele, who tracks Tommy John surgeries, told USA Today last month that 35 percent of current MLB pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, and that is up 29 percent since 2016.
"It's hard to truly say a Major League pitcher will never have a surgery," Josh Walker, who was LSU baseball's lead athletic trainer last season and worked daily with Skenes, told OutKick on Thursday.
"There are a lot of pitchers out there, especially at the MLB level, who have scars on their arm," said Walker, who is now a trainer and movement specialist at Trifecta Sports Therapy in Baton Rouge. "It's such a violent motion. It's an unnatural motion of the arm. The arm's not supposed to throw overhand."
Paul Skenes Appears Supernatural
But Skenes so far is a supernatural pitching prospect with a near-supernatural, between-games workout regimen that is similar to what Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan did in his later years. And Ryan was a 100 mph power pitcher who avoided surgeries and pitched until he was 46 in 1993. He won 324 games and holds MLB records for no-hitters with seven and for strikeouts with 5,714.
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"Nolan Ryan is the exception instead of the rule," said Walker, who now works at Trifecta Sports Therapy in Baton Rouge as a movement specialist. "Paul is that same thing. I'm not by any stretch saying that Paul Skenes is Nolan Ryan yet, but he works out much the same way between starts. He's so disciplined in what he does week to week and day to day that he sets himself up at such an elite level to stay healthy. His ability to bounce back was as impressive as his ability to just pitch. You just rarely see that."
So far, so good. Skenes has never had a major injury through his time at El Toro High School in Lake Forest, California, three seasons at Air Force and one at LSU and now as a pro.
"There was nothing in there about any arm injuries, looking back on the medical paperwork at Air Force or in high school," Walker said. "And we get all that."
As "100" kept flashing on all the velocity trackers, though, a trainer worries.
"In baseball, it's something you always think about - a guy throwing that hard eventually getting hurt," Walker said. "But there are usually warning signs that lead up to that. Are they making big misses based on where the target is? Are they dropping off in late innings? With him, there was nothing."
Paul Skenes struck out seven in his MLB debut last Saturday at PNC Park in Pittsburgh against the Chicago Cubs. (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Skenes was still hitting 100 mph in his final pitches on Saturday. He averaged 100 mph on his fastball. But he doesn't look like he's throwing that hard.
"My gosh, it was like this dude's the most effortless 101 mph pitcher you've ever seen in your life," Walker said. "And he'd just bounce back so well week in and week out at LSU. We'd all look at each other and say, ‘Man, this is pretty incredible.’"
Skenes' 6-foot-6, 235-pound frame and his form help.
"He's so efficient in using his lower half to transfer those forces from the ground up," Walker said. "His hips move so well. His trunk moves so well. That disperses some of those forces throughout the body. At the end of the day, if he keeps doing all those things in between starts that he needs to do, he'll have a long and healthy career. He's so disciplined and efficient."
Air Force Academy Served Paul Skenes
His time at the Air Force helped with his routine between starts dramatically.
"The Air Force Academy instilled such a sense of discipline in him," Walker said. "He was such a creature of habit when we got him, and he developed a well-orchestrated routine in the weight room to the training room and to the bullpen and was always so efficient. He's so good with his time. He just understands his body at an elite level and knows what he needs to do to be ready for each outing."
As a result, neither Johnson nor Walker ever heard Skenes say anything about his arm or shoulder hurting.
"Never. Not one time," Johnson said.
"He never had that soreness or tightness you normally see in power pitchers," Walker said. "And that is absolutely incredible."
The Pirates' organization took it very slow with Skenes while he was at Indianapolis before his call-up. Pittsburgh is 20-25 for third in the National League Central going into today's game. They are not expected to be a contender. They likely will not be rushing Skenes for a playoff run. That has helped ruin other young, promising pitchers.
Skenes plans on taking it slow and staying on his Ryan Express routine.
"He was here the whole off-season," Johnson said. "And just the attention to detail, the work ethic, the deliberate nature in which he does everything. I mean, he's going to be able to sustain it because of how he goes about everything that he does. The Pirates - they should be smiling."