OutKick NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Trades Shake Up The Top 10
Well, ladies and gentlemen, the time has come. It's NFL Draft season! Well, technically, it's still NFL season. But, for 30 teams, the draft is the next major event on their calendars. With that in mind, let's take a look at the first edition of the OutKick Mock Draft for 2024…
1. Chicago Bears (acquired from Panthers) – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Last year, the Bears elected to stick with Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. I don't think they can do that again this year. After three seasons, we know who Justin Fields is: an exciting player who can make huge plays but commits too many mistakes to really be counted on.
Plus, entering his fourth season in the league, Fields is nearly due for a contract extension. By drafting a rookie QB, Chicago resets its quarterback contract counter and gives itself a much larger championship window. I'm not the biggest Williams fan, but I'm guessing the Bears fall in love with his raw tools.
2. Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
There shouldn't be a ton of mystery here. The Commanders need a quarterback and should plan to pick between Williams, Maye and Jayden Daniels -- depending on who goes No. 1 overall. Ultimately, I think they go with Maye. He looks the part of a franchise quarterback, standing 6'4" and weighing 230 pounds. He's big, strong and athletic.
I project North Carolina QB Drake Maye to go #2 overall in the first edition of OutKick's NFL Mock Draft. (Photo Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports)
Although, the lack of success for North Carolina QBs in the NFL might cause some hesitation, especially if Washington thinks Daniels' game can translate immediately like Joe Burrow did after one standout season at LSU.
3. New England Patriots – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
It's hard to see too much drama in the first three picks, except which player goes where. All three teams need a quarterback and there are three guys capable of those selections. Bill Belichick was always hesitant to trade up in the NFL Draft, but loved to trade down. It's possible New England's new power structure falls in love with one of the QBs and tries to move up to get their guy.
Still, it's going to be difficult given that Washington likely doesn't want to move back. Perhaps the Bears front office likes all three quarterbacks and is comfortable sliding back to acquire more picks. If I were the Bears, I'd have to strongly consider that option.
4. Los Angeles Chargers (mock trade with Cardinals) – Marvin Harrison, Jr., WR, Ohio State
No one understands the talent of Marvin Harrison Jr. quite like Jim Harbaugh, who faced the star wide out in each of the past two seasons. Harrison put up more than 100 yards and a touchdown in each matchup against Harbaugh's stout Michigan defense. He wants a guy to pair with Justin Herbert to help unlock the young quarterback's full potential.
The fourth spot in the draft is going to be highly-coveted because it allows a team to take the best non-QB on the board. Ultimately, I have the Chargers sliding up one spot to get Harrison.
5. Arizona Cardinals (mock trade with Chargers) – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The Cardinals are in a great spot if all three teams ahead of them take a quarterback. That puts them in position to get the best non-QB in the draft -- or, in this case, trade down to acquire more assets. They might be tempted to take Harrison themselves, but Arizona has holes all over the field. With a defensive-minded head coach like Jonathan Gannon, I think they ultimately need to start building on that side of the ball.
I project Alabama EDGE Dallas Turner to go #5 overall in the first edition of OutKick's NFL Mock Draft. (Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
There's not really a can't-miss defensive prospect this year, but Turner fits the mold of what Arizona needs on defense -- speed off the edge.
6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants couldn't get a wide receiver in the first round last year thanks to a run on the position leading up to their pick. But, with a Top 10 selection this year, I don't think there's any doubt they want to get a star. This is a deep draft in terms of high-level wide receiver talent, so the Giants are in a good spot even if both Arizona and Los Angeles elect to go this route.
7. Tennessee Titans – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This could change depending on what the Titans do in free agency. New head coach Brian Callahan knows the importance of getting his young quarterback playmakers on the outside. He had both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in Cincinnati. He's going to view getting a guy like that as a top priority. If they don't get someone in free agency, expect them to be aggressive to get one of the top three guys in the NFL Draft.
8. New York Jets (mock trade with Falcons) – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The New York Jets offensive line was abysmal last season and Aaron Rodgers isn't getting any younger. Coming off an Achilles tear, the team has to do everything it can to protect him. With no offensive linemen off the board yet, I think the Jets take the opportunity to move up a couple spots to get their guy. Right now, I project that to be Alt.
9. Chicago Bears – Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
The Bears have Jaylon Johnson, one of the most underrated corners in the NFL. However, the rest of their secondary is a mess. Unlike last year, there aren't as many top secondary prospects available. however, that gives Chicago a chance to get the top one on their board at No. 9 overall and that's likely DeJean.
10. Atlanta Falcons (mock trade with Jets) – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
The Falcons are in a tough spot. They're too far back to get one of the top three quarterbacks, but they have to get someone. It makes sense to slide down a couple of spots to try and acquire some additional capital and then take their pick of the next crop of QBs. This comes down to a decision between Nix, Michael Pennix and J.J. McCarthy, but Nix seems like the best option -- even though this is a reach no matter what.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
The Vikings season was completely derailed by the injury to Kirk Cousins, and they still have to decide on his future. That's going to play a huge role in what they do in the NFL Draft. For the purposes of this mock draft, I'm going to assume they bring back Cousins and try to make a run next season. That being said, they need to get someone who can help them win NOW.
National edge Laiatu Latu of UCLA battles for position during Senior Bowl practice. (Photo Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports)
The defense played well last season but they need someone opposite Danielle Hunter to disrupt the offense in the NFC North. Brian Flores likes to run a 3-4 base defense so an edge rusher with speed who can rush the passer and occasionally drop into coverage is ideal. That makes Latu an ideal fit.
12. Denver Broncos – Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami
Denver is a very difficult team to project right now. Like Atlanta, they need a quarterback. But, at this spot in the NFL Draft that puts them in a tough spot. Do they reach for one of the second-tier guys? Or, do they just pass for now and try to get someone later? What they do in free agency will give us a better clue into their plans.
For now, I say Sean Payton doesn't reach for a quarterback unless he falls in love during the process. Denver's defense was horrible last year, rating 31st in the NFL. They did get better as the season went along, but mostly due to their opponents. Clearly, they need help on that side, so in this mock draft I have them staying put and taking the best defender on their board.
Vance Joseph likes to play single-high safety and Kinchens fits the bill perfectly.
13. Las Vegas Raiders – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Justin Fields is absolutely in play for the Raiders if the Bears decide to use their first pick on a quarterback, which obviously I believe they will do. I don't think Chicago can get a first-round pick for Fields, nor do I think the Raiders would part with a Top 15 pick for him. Thus, they can use this selection to help ease his transition.
Fields loves throwing to Cole Kmet, who had a big year in Chicago this past season. Bowers is more physically-gifted and would provide a really nice secondary option to Davante Adams. Generally, I'm against picking tight ends this high. However, it's hard to ignore the immediate impact of Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid from last year's first round.
14. New Orleans Saints – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Saints offensive line really struggled last year and it severely impacted thier production. If they plan to run it back with Derek Carr, they have to get him some help, particularly on the edges. There are some really strong tackle prospects in this class. With only one off the board so far, the Saints can add a player who can step in on Day 1 -- that's Mims.
15. Indianapolis Colts – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
There are several directions the Colts could choose to go in this year's NFL Draft. Their defensive line is very strong, but they need secondary help. Their offensive line was also good, but they lack playmakers outside of Richardson and Taylor.
I project LSU WR Brian Thomas to go #15 overall in the first edition of OutKick's NFL Mock Draft. (Photo Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Shane Steichen had a lot of success with the Philadelphia Eagles offense thanks to A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith and the Colts need someone on the outside that can make big plays and open up the field for Richardson. Thomas is a big target and field-stretcher who could fit perfectly in the A.J. Brown role.
16. Seattle Seahawks – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Another team that struggled with offensive line play, the Seahawks didn't have a single O-lineman rate in the top 25 at his position, according to Pro Football Focus. Fashanu is very polished for a kid who's going to start his first NFL season at just 21 years of age. The Seahawks are starting a complete rebuild, organizationally, after moving on from Pete Carroll. Targeting a young, potential franchise left tackle to anchor the line is a great place to begin.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Stop me if you've heard this before: the Jaguars offensive line struggled last year. They were a big reason why Trevor Lawrence seemingly took a step back last season and Jacksonville can't afford to waste another year. Anton Harrison didn't perform particularly well in his rookie season, which hurt. Cam Robinson hasn't been great as a former second-round pick, either. The team can move on from him, and should, to get a younger, cheaper and potentially better option.
18. Cincinnati Bengals – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
No reason to stop the offensive line run now! The Bengals have to protect Joe Burrow who suffered the second season-ending injury of his career this year. They tried to revamp the offensive line through free agency, but it didn't work out. Burrow makes up for a lot of deficiencies, but at some point they have to keep him upright.
The run on tackles could impact their decision-making, but Fuaga is still a first-round talent worthy of a selection here.
19. Los Angeles Rams – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Rams boasted a Top 10 offense but a Bottom 10 defense so they should focus on that side of the ball in the first round of the NFL Draft. Their secondary predictably struggled after trading away Jalen Ramsey. Adding one of the top corners on the board in Wiggins helps fill that void.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers – T'Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas
Pittsburgh seems committed to running it back next year with Mike Tomlin, Kenny Pickett and/or Mason Rudolph and company. You have to wonder if they keep their wide receiver room together after all of the drama this season, but since Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are still young, cheap and cost-controlled options they don't have much choice.
While the Steelers boast stars off the edge on defense -- T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith -- they need more beef up the middle. Sweat could be a plug-and-play interior defender that helps retain the Steelers' identity as a tough team to face in the trenches.
21. Miami Dolphins – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Miami's season was derailed by injury but they boast a very strong roster from top to bottom. Terron Armstead helped shore up the offensive line, but he turns 33 next year and the team is going to eventually need a replacement. Guyton is an athletic offensive tackle that fits exactly into what the Dolphins want to do on offense. He's a little raw, but they can afford to let him develop.
22. Philadelphia Eagles – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Eagles showed a lot of holes as they limped to the end of the season with a 1-5 record. Their defense really struggled after losing several free agents following their Super Bowl appearance. They did get Jalen Carter in last year's draft to bulk up the interior of the defensive line and he played great. But, they need to get more speed off the edge, which is right where Verse fits in.
23. Houston Texans (acquired from Browns) – Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Houston made a surprise run to an AFC South title and even won a playoff game with a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach. They traded their own first-round pick last year to draft Will Anderson, but they knew they still had the Browns pick -- the team they beat in the playoffs -- from the Deshaun Watson trade.
Arizona offensive lineman Jordan Morgan celebrates after winning the Territorial Cup against Arizona State. (Photo Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic)
The Texans actually boast a pretty solid roster, so there's a number of ways they could go with this pick. Adding offensive linemen is never a bad idea when you need to protect a young star quarterback, so that's where I project them to go in round one.
24. Dallas Cowboys – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
With Stefon Gilmore set to hit free agency, Dallas needs a cornerback to pair with Trevon Diggs on the other side. Green Bay's young wide receivers torched the Dallas secondary in their playoff victory, so it makes the most sense for the Cowboys to target an upgrade in that area.
25. Green Bay Packers – Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Packers offense was outstanding thanks to the emergence of quarterback Jordan Love. But, their defense didn't perform quite as well. With the explosive offenses in the NFC North, the Packers need to improve on that side of the ball. Newton would add some much-needed strength to the interior of the Green Bay defensive line.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Another team that made a surprise run to a postseason victory, the Bucs appear committed to Baker Mayfield for the short-term. One thing they desperately need is some help in the interior of their offensive line. Fautanu provides a lot of versatility, having played multiple positions in college. He can start on the interior and potentially move outside to tackle, if needed.
27. Arizona Cardinals (acquired from Texans) – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
With the second of two first-round picks, I see Jonathan Gannon trying to continue his defensive rebuild. Arizona had the worst defense in the NFL and they need help at all three levels. After using their first pick to improve their pass rushing, it makes sense to focus on the back end of the defense with this selection.
McKinstry improved every year in college and is a solid corner when it comes to run defense, in addition to his strong cover skills.
28. Buffalo Bills – Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
The Bills continue to come up just short and in each of their past two playoff disappointments, the team got bullied up front by their opponents. Yes, the Bills dealt with a lot of injuries, but they need more pass rushing. Von Miller is well past his prime and the team has to give Greg Rousseau someone on the other side for defenses to pay attention to. Trice fits the bill.
29. Detroit Lions – Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo, CB
Look, I ripped on the Lions for their NFL Draft picks last season. They used three of their first four picks on non-premium positions, but virtually every player they picked had a massive outcome on their NFC Championship game run. Offensively, there's not a ton the Lions need. Defensively, though, they could use some help in their secondary.
Mitchell is an underrated small-school cornerback who is an excellent cover cornerback. That's exactly what the Lions need going against Justin Jefferson and D.J. Moore four times per season.
30. Baltimore Ravens – Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
It might seem surprising that the Ravens would use back-to-back drafts to select wide receivers in the first round, but that's still their biggest area of need. Zay Flowers had an excellent rookie season, but he's a slot receiver. The team still needs a big body on the outside. Enter 6'4" Keon Coleman out of Florida State.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Speaking of teams that need wide receivers for their star quarterback, the Chiefs desperately need help on the outside. Especially if Travis Kelce retires following the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes is going to have to get someone to throw the ball to. Worthy isn't big, but he's fast and explosive. That's something the Chiefs need.
32. Denver Broncos (mock trade with 49ers) – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I could easily see Sean Payton believing that McCarthy could be his next Drew Brees. While Denver won't want to burn a Top 10 pick on him, they could easily slip into the back end of the first round to get their new starting quarterback. Plus, there's great benefit in drafting a quarterback in the first round over the second round because it adds the fifth-year option to his rookie deal.
That's it for the first mock draft of season, as the the NFL Draft is less than two months away! Check back in a few weeks for updates...
Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ