There Are Only Four Open Seats In F1 For '25, So Let's Predict Who Will be In Them
We've hit Formula 1's summer break, and with IndyCar and NASCAR slowing down during the Olympics, there's not much on-track action to be found anywhere.
But fear not! There's still some action regarding the grid for the 2025 season, with one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle — current Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz — falling into place.
Sainz will officially slot in alongside Alex Albon at Williams next season, giving the historic team arguably its most dynamic driver lineup in at least a decade.
Sainz's signing leaves just four seats — one each at Mercedes, Sauber, Alpine, and Visa Cash App RB — but who could be the drivers in those seats come next season?
Well, let's try our hand at clairvoyance and make some predictions, shall we?
Is Mercedes ready to turn things over to 17-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli? (Photo by Joe Portlock - Formula 1/Formula Motorsport Limited via Getty Images)
Mercedes
Without a doubt, the most coveted seat left for 2025 (barring a potential opening at Red Bull, but we'll talk about that later) is Mercedes. With Lewis Hamilton jumping to Ferrari next season, the Silver Arrows need a new driver to compliment George Russell.
This was always a high-prized spot on the grid given Mercedes' proven potential, but now that they've had multiple race wins in just the last couple of months, its value is even higher.
I always thought Sainz would be a great fit here, but it always seemed that the team was keen to throw their highly prized junior driver, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, in that seat.
The F2 driver is very young, but team boss Toto Wolff has been public about how he thinks the now-17-year-old is the team's future. He's currently P7 in the F2 standings but would appear ready to jump into F1.
With Sainz not signing with Mercedes, I don't think there's any other option the team would be willing to go to other than Antonelli.
Prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli will make his F1 debut with the big boys in 2025.
Alpine will look to add another solid driver alongside Pierre Gasly after the team took a step backward in the half of 2024. (Photo by James Sutton - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
Alpine
The French team decided to bid adieu to Esteban Ocon who will drive for Haas next season, but they still have one French driver in their lineup in Pierre Gasly.
As for that empty seat, Sainz would have been an interesting fit, but given the team's performance this season, I can't imagine he was ever too jazzed about the prospect of returning to the team that he raced for back when they were known as Renault.
There are some other options as far as current drivers on the grid that the team could go with. Sauber's Zhou Guanyu is a solid driver dealing with a lousy car this season, and he was part of the Alpine Academy during his career in F2.
Speaking of the Alpine Academy, Mich Doohan was a former member of the team's junior program and currently serves as the team's reserve driver. He's really talented, and I can't imagine Alpine would want to let another top-tier driver coming out of their junior program go elsewhere (*cough*Oscar Piastri*cough*).
So, I think Alpine will be promoting from within for that seat in 2025.
Prediction: Mick Doohan… unless he pulls an Oscar Piastri and signs elsewhere.
It's been a rough season for Sauber — which has failed to score a point with either car — but would sticking with proven race-winner Valtteri Bottas be a smart move. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Sauber
Sort of like drivers, teams have a "stock value" that ebbs and flows with performance.
You'd think Sauber — which has a slow car with poor reliability that hasn't scored a single point this season — would be an undesirable seat to jump in, but the team will become an Audi works team in 2026.
To that point, the expectation is whoever is signed to drive alongside Niko Hulkenberg in 2025 would also be in the lineup for 2026 when Audi goes full-time and the regulations get a pretty significant overhaul.
I thought for sure, Carlos Sainz would end up at Audi, but since he hasn't this might be the most wide-open seat on the grid for next season.
The current tandem of Zhou and Valtteri Bottas has had a rough year, but not drivers — especially Bottas; a Grand Prix winner — are still solid. The car is just unbelievably poor. I mean, they were dealing with excruciatingly long pitstops because of issues with the wheel nuts earlier this season. It's been a nightmare.
I think either one would pair well with Hulkenberg, but you'd have to give the nod to the proven race-winner in Bottas.
Elsewhere on the grid, Hulkenberg's Haas teammate Kevin Magnussen might be a good choice, however, I think it might be smart to maintain a little consistency at Sauber as they make the big transition into Audi.
Prediction: Valtteri "The Assman" Bottas will stick around in 2025 for another season at Sauber.
Will we see Daniel Ricciardo back in the grid in 2025, and if so, where? (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Visa Cash App RB
Red Bull's sister team is maybe the strangest seat in F1 in that the candidates for it are pretty clear, but it almost all hinges on what happens at the big team.
Yuki Tsunoda is locked in for 2025 at RB, while the names floating around to join next season are his current teammate Daniel Ricciardo and reserve driver Liam Lawson.
Now, Tsunoda is a no-brainer in that he is outscoring Ricciardo 22-12 this season, but it would seem that Red Bull would prefer to move Ricciardo up to Red Bull if they decide to move on from Sergio Perez who has had a brutal summer (which seems to happen every year).
If that happens and Ricciardo hops back in a Red Bull, Lawson is the easy choice.
However, if the team sticks with Perez, I'd be comfortable betting that Ricciardo will be back with RB, even though I would argue Lawson is still the smarter move.
It may be a while before we know how it shakes out — it'll hinge on Perez's form after the summer break — but I think we're going to see RB's 2024 lineup stay the same for next year.
Prediction: Ricciardo will stay at RB… even though Liam Lawson should probably be in that car.
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I'm anxious to see how this all pans out, but, in the meantime, feel free to send me your predictions by firing an email to mattreigleoutkick@gmail.com.