Nolan Arenado Trade Talks Heat Up With...The Astros?

After a disastrous 2024 season saw the St. Louis Cardinals finish 83-79 and miss the playoffs for the second consecutive year, the team's front office has apparently decided to rebuild. 

Paul Goldschmidt is a free agent, after the worst season of his career. And the other St. Louis star, Nolan Arenado, is reportedly set to be on the move as well. With a surprising contender emerging as the most likely destination. 

The Athletic reported on Saturday that the Houston Astros of all teams have become the favorites to land Arenado in trade, an unexpected turn of events considering Houston's recent moves.

"No deal is believed to be imminent, but conversations between the Cardinals and Astros have increased since this week’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, during which Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged he ‘intends to try’ moving Arenado," the article reads. 

So if the Astros are interested in Arenado, why did they trade Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs on Friday?

ST LOUIS - Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals at bat against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on April 13, 2023. (Photo by Joe Puetz/Getty Images)

Houston Astros Offseason Not Making Much Sense

The Astros are hoping to contend in 2025, as they do every year. Any team hoping to acquire Nolan Arenado, who has clearly declined by age 33 and is coming off a well below average season, by his standards, would have to consider themselves likely to make the playoffs.

Arenado's still owed more than $70 million for the next three years, hardly a bargain considering his age and decline in production in 2024. So why would the Astros trade their second-best player in Kyle Tucker if they plan on trading for Arenado? Why would they not just bring back Alex Bregman, who's available in free agency, been in the organization his entire career, is several years younger and hasn't taken as many steps backwards?  

Honestly, nobody knows.

The Astros clearly didn't think they could retain Tucker after the 2025 season, and decided to get as much trade value as they could before he hit the open market. But flags fly forever and for a big market team, it makes no sense to "punt" on a season before it starts. 

There's no question that Houston's odds of winning the World Series are lower Saturday than they were on Friday. And if money were an issue with Tucker, why would they trade for Arenado, who will cost more than he did, even if the Cardinals eat some of his salary? 

Houston could have simply acted like the big market, highly profitable team that it is, kept Tucker with the intention of signing him long term, re-signed its star third baseman, and been the favorite to win the American League West yet again. Instead, the Astros made their team worse to save money, then started serious discussions to only marginally improve for even more money.

It makes no sense. But then again, little that Houston's done has.