No, Michigan Is Not A National Championship Contender

The Michigan Wolverines had an impressive, season-saving win over the USC Trojans at The Big House last Saturday. Entering the game as home underdogs, Michigan made a quarterback switch and committed to calling runs the vast majority of its play calls. It worked. The Wolverines put up 290 rushing yards and scored 20 offensive points against a much-improved USC defense.

After a disastrous loss to Texas in Week 2, it was a much-needed confidence booster for the rest of the Big Ten Conference season. And with the new expanded playoff, it gave the Wolverines a quality win to hang their hat on for a possible at-large berth.

But the discussion around Michigan suddenly vaulting themselves back into the conversation as a national title contending team misses a few key points. Almost certainly overrating their prospects moving forward.

Yes, they beat SC, but there's plenty to be concerned about.

ANN ARBOR, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 21: Kalel Mullings #20 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates after a touchdown run in the fourth quarter during a game against the USC Trojans at Michigan Stadium on September 21, 2024 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

Michigan's Offense Still Has Plenty Of Work To Do

Outcomes in college football can often be deceiving. And while the Wolverines had roughly 50% postgame win expectancy, much of that success was found in the first half.

The switch from Davis Warren to Alex Orji created some uncertainty in game planning for USC; would the Wolverines really run the ball for 75-85% of their plays? Would Orji show a better throwing arm and accuracy than he had in the past? How many defenders should you commit to containing Orji in the running game?

Still, despite that uncertainty, Michigan's offense struggled. Their first drive averaged 2.7 yards per play. Helped along by a missed delay of game penalty on 4th and 1 from their own 34-yard-line that resulted in a conversion.

The next drive was three-and-out, but their third drive of the game resulted in a touchdown. Except that 53-yard touchdown run was only made possible by a poor spot on fourth down. 

Their fourth drive again averaged less than four yards per play. Another big touchdown run cemented a touchdown drive, but Michigan once again punted on their final drive of the half.

The Wolverines gained 93 yards on two running plays, and 126 yards on their other 32 plays. That's a 3.9 yards per play average. And one of those big running plays wouldn't have happened with competent officiating. It got worse in the second half.

Michigan's first two drives in the third quarter combined for six yards on six plays. Their third drive made it seven yards on nine plays. Then 13 yards on 10 plays. With the game on the line and around six minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, the Wolverines went three-and-out and gained -4 yards. 

Their second half offense, with four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, generated nine yards on 13 plays. Yes, they scored on the final drive, thanks to an incredible individual effort from running back Kalel Mullings. But again, the other nine plays on that drive generated just 26 yards. And were helped along by an obvious holding penalty on Zach Marshall on 4th down from the one-yard line to prevent Anthony Lucas from filling the gap that led to the game-winning touchdown.

Uncalled penalties aren't the reason Michigan won, and it's easy to toss out big individual runs. But the Wolverines offense, outside those big gains, generated just 165 yards on 45 plays. Second half adjustments by defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn were extremely effective. And Michigan benefited from not having a single in-play penalty called on either their offense or defense. 

Including two very obvious facemask calls against quarterback Miller Moss that the officiating crew somehow missed.

As well as an uncalled illegal blindside block during a punt return that sent a USC wide receiver to the hospital.

Again, those calls are not the reasons Michigan won, and big plays from their elite running backs are part of their strategy. But USC's defense is nowhere close to the likes of Georgia or Ohio State, and Michigan's offense looked awful for the vast majority of the game. Now that there's full game tape available of their play calling with Alex Orji replacing Warren, expect the offense to look even worse going forward.

Michigan may be able to overcome that weakness in some games with its elite defensive line, cornerback Will Johnson and strong punting game. But they have yet to play a road game, thanks to some smart scheduling, and still have Illinois, Oregon, Washington and Ohio State on the schedule. 

Per ESPN's FPI, they have just an 11% chance of making the playoff and a 0.3% chance of winning a championship. Michigan saved any semblance of hope with the win on Saturday. But the underlying stats paint a much more concerning picture. Throwing for 32 yards can work, as long as you gain 157 yards on three running plays. Counting on that though, especially on the road against tougher defenses, is not a long-term strategy.