The NFL's Offense Problems Are Getting Worse

The National Football League has had a growing problem with a decline in offense in recent seasons. And through the first two weeks of 2024, those problems are only getting worse. 

READ: The NFL Is Wildly Overrated And Needs To Be Fixed

Individual defensive players in the NFL are too fast, too physical and too smart. Defensive coordinators are too good at diagnosing what offenses are trying to do and disguising what coverage and blitz packages they're running. Individual offensive players, like first overall draft pick Caleb Williams, are finding that scrambling and throwing on the run is suddenly not advisable.

Even with the NFL's push to make defense harder, with additions like illegal contact penalties and even more protections for quarterbacks, offenses continue to struggle. And so far in 2024, the stats continue to get uglier.

Houston Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaairtackles Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams at NRG Stadium in Texas. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Passing Statistics Down Significantly Across The NFL

In 2021, the average NFL game had 228.3 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 0.8 interceptions, and 5.4 yards per play. The net yards gained per passing attempt, essentially passing yards per attempt after accounting for sacks, was 6.2. Removing sacks, the average yards gained per passing attempt was 7.1.

NFL teams scored 23 points per game and scored 2.05 points per drive. All of those numbers are down in 2024, some of them are down substantially.

Thus far in the 2024 season, NFL teams are throwing for just 193 yards per game, meaning passing yards in the average game are down 15.4% from just 2021. Passing touchdowns have dropped from 1.5 per game to 1.1, a decline of nearly 27%. Yet interceptions have remained at an average of 0.8 per game. Teams throw less successfully than they ever have.

Net yard per attempt have dropped from 6.2 to 5.9, and passing yards per attempt removing sacks are down from 7.1 to 6.9. Small declines, yes, but considering how low these numbers are already, it speaks to how hard it's become to throw the ball down the field.

Points per drive have now dropped under 2, to 1.95. And the average point total has taken a nosedive from 23 to 21, a 9% decline. Again, this is just from 2021. 

There are even more stats showing how bad the league's problems have gotten on offense. Passing touchdowns in the NFL through two weeks from 2019-2022 ranged from 105-110. In 2023 that dropped to 86. This season, before Monday Night Football, that was down to 66. 

Jalen Hurts and Kirk Cousins combined for three passing touchdowns in Monday night's game between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles, putting the total number at 69. Passing touchdowns through two weeks are down 37.2% since 2021.

Similarly, there have been just five 300-yard+ passing games by NFL quarterbacks through the first two weeks of 2024. There were 15 such games in the first two weeks of 2023. 

It's ugly. And it's getting worse.

What Can Be Done About NFL's Offensive Problems?

All these passing issues would be more acceptable if the league had gotten better at running the ball, but the average yards per carry in 2022 was 4.5. In 2024, it's 4.5. 

So how does the league fix it? 

Unfortunately, there aren't many options, other than adding more penalties targeted toward defensive players. Or they can condition fans to watch a lot more rushing attempts.

That's how bad passing has gotten in the NFL; rushing yards per attempt are essentially flat, yet rushing offenses have been more successful. And it's why the league's entertainment problems continue to get worse.

The last three seasons entering 2024, the average team had run 63 players per game, yet this year that number is down to 60. Teams are moving slower, gaining fewer yards per play, scoring less, passing less successfully, and throwing the same amount of interceptions. This is not a good entertainment product. But sports betting has saved the NFL from having to deal with the decline in offense; fans often confuse the excitement of seeing whether their bet pays off with excitement within the sport. 

The Red Zone Channel makes it appear like games are more exciting than they are by focusing only on the most important plays in each game, allowing fans to avoid watching a slog of incomplete passes, 2-yard gains, and young quarterbacks running for their lives. 

But the decline in offense in the NFL is real, substantial, and a significant problem. One without an easy solution.