The NFL Is Wildly Overrated And Needs To Be Fixed: Ian Miller

The NFL has several serious structural problems that need to be addressed. 

Chief among them is that professional football has become unbearably boring, dependent on gambling, fortunate scheduling and fantasy to generate interest. And while it's doing so successfully, for now, how long until fans realize how slow, plodding and at times unwatchable the NFL has become? 

And make no mistake, it's slow, plodding and at times unwatchable.

The average game time in the NFL has crept up over the years as the league rakes in more money from expanded commercial breaks and teams use more of the play clock to stand around. The most recent estimate was that the average NFL game now takes three hours and 12 minutes. The average Major League Baseball game, the sport most frequently criticized for long game lengths, is now roughly two hours and 42 minutes. Baseball games are 30 minutes faster than football.

But the NFL has more action in those three hours and 12 minutes, you might say. Not exactly. The average number of actual minutes in play in an NFL game is 11. 11 minutes out of 192. As a percentage, that means roughly 94.3% of the average NFL broadcast is just…dead space. Though even dead space is more entertaining that most NFL games.

Feb 5, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks at a press conference in advance of Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Has Pace-Of-Play, Excitement Issues

So, if over 94% of an NFL broadcast is dead air, what's happening on screen? Mostly, commercials, broken up with brief spurts of shots of coaches standing on the sidelines, huddling, standing around before or after plays, and replays. Fascinating.

College football has many of these same structural problems, with a seemingly endless stream of momentum-destroying commercial breaks. But it makes up for the plodding game times and dead air with more excitement while the teams are actually on-screen.

How? Because defenses aren't as good. Scoring in college football is significantly higher, there's little huddling in the sport, and the lesser quality of play means greater intensity and excitement due to uncertainty. Any play can be a big one, because the defenses aren't as good at stopping them.

The NFL might have a higher level of play, but it's a much less fun one. 

In 2023, for example, NFL teams scored just over two touchdowns per game. Two. The average MLB team scores roughly four and a half runs per game. There's twice as much actual meaningful scoring in baseball than there is in professional football.

At least there's an average of twelve accepted penalties per game to spice things up.

By the math, NFL games are an unwatchable slog. 181 minutes of commercials, standing around and wasted time, and 11 minutes of checkdowns, incomplete passes and short runs. Literally.

In 2023, the average team rushed the ball 27 times for just over 112 yards. An average of just over 4.1 yards per rushing attempt. Passing was only marginally better, at six yards per attempt. The average yards per play overall dropped to just 5.3 last season. After years of increases, it was the lowest number since 2010. It's ugly out there.

Can The NFL Be Fixed?

Many football fans already decry the rise of the penalty-fueled offense. Illegal contact, pass interference and defensive holding have all given, in theory, offenses an advantage. There needs to be more.

Scoring is down, yards per play is down, excitement is down and commercials are up. Fans have bought in due to gambling, fantasy and general cultural trends. As well as the ease of watching just one game per week. But how long will that last?

Maybe it'll last forever, or maybe fans will increasingly realize that they're wasting an unimaginable amount of time on commercials and huddling. If they do, the NFL needs to adjust, and quickly. Boring continues to sell, but it might not forever.