NFL Teams Making QB Decisions Should Use 2024 Season As Cautionary Tale
NFL teams get it wrong all the time. Eagle-eyed general managers and their vast scouting departments, with the help of well-trained coaching staffs, all working for billion-dollar organizations, swing and miss a lot.
A lot.
Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Vikings in 2024, celebrates a touchdown pass to wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Matt Krohn / Imagn Images
Look At Sam Darnold Now
They study tape for weeks, then invest high draft picks on rookies or big money on free agents to find the quarterback meant to change the direction of the franchise.
And after staking their reputations and jobs on those decisions, they sometimes come to the conclusion they got it wrong – when, in fact, thinking they got it wrong may be wrong.
That's how the quarterback evaluation business goes in the NFL.
If you don't believe this, please survey what the 2024 NFL season has shown us about the quarterback evaluation game. The season is a cautionary tale because it has shown that these people don't know anything.
Example:
In 2021, the Carolina Panthers traded three draft picks to the New York Jets for Sam Darnold. The Panthers figured they were getting a bargain for the quarterback who had been the No. 3 overall selection in the 2018 NFL draft only three seasons earlier.
The Jets quit on Darnold and were all too happy to ship him out and try to replace him in the next draft with Zach Wilson.
Baker Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract with Tampa Bay in March. $50 million is guaranteed. Kim Klement Neitzel/ Imagn Images
Baker Mayfield Also Studly
Well, the Jets were wrong because Wilson was not really any better than Darnold. And the Panthers were wrong because they couldn't turn Darnold into a productive quarterback within the one short season they gave him as the unquestioned starter.
So they quit on him, too.
The very next season, the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield because the Cleveland Browns had quit on him and traded a mint for Deshaun Watson.
Are you noticing all these teams quitting on guys?
Well, again, both teams got it wrong.
Watson has not been the quarterback the Browns hoped. And Mayfield got all of six starts before the Panthers, who used him to replace Darnold as the starter, decided Mayfield wasn't good enough, either.
And the punchline to this joke scenario?
Sam Darnold has thrown 35 TD passes and completed 68.1 percent of his passes for the Minnesota Vikings this year. And Mayfield played great for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season and this season has thrown 39 touchdown passes and completed 71.7 percent of his passes.
The Carolina Panthers will have a Bryce Young question to answer during the offseason. Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images
Panthers Face Bryce Young Decision
The Panthers, meanwhile, under a new coach and new general manager but the same ownership that wanted instant gratification on those past QB trades, are busy deciding if Bryce Young is their quarterback of the future.
After only two seasons with two different coaching staffs.
It's crazy.
And it's all part of the rampant impatient, error-filled search for the right quarterback by NFL teams.
Darnold will start for the Vikings Sunday night with a chance to win the NFC North and capture the No. 1 seed in the conference. They'll face the Detroit Lions – who are led by quarterback Jared Goff.
Jared Goff was shipped off to Detroit by the Rams & now finds himself a win away from the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. Michael Reaves / Getty Images
Goff Leads Class Of Castoffs In Playoffs
Goff is another quarterback castoff who found a new home in Detroit after Rams coach Sean McVay gave up on him.
No, McVay isn't dumb. He's great. He's so great he went to the Super Bowl with two different quarterbacks --including Goff, who he then traded away for Matthew Stafford.
If one glances at the NFL statistics today, four of the five quarterbacks leading the NFL in passing yards – Darnold, Goff, Mayfield and Geno Smith – are castoffs from other teams.
Four of the five top-seeded playoff teams in the NFC postseason have castoff quarterbacks as starters.
The Denver Broncos are fighting to make the playoffs with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They must beat the Kansas City Chiefs to get in.
You know who's already in? The Pittsburgh Steelers, which have starting quarterback Russell Wilson because Broncos coach Sean Payton didn't believe he had it anymore, released him after last season.
And we say all this to make this point:
Be careful what you believe about quarterbacks struggling today or castoff quarterbacks tomorrow. Because tomorrow might bring a good situation, with a good supporting cast and coach that believes in the quarterback.
And suddenly, we might see the next Darnold, Goff, Mayfield, Smith, or Wilson.
(Getty Images)
Today's Zeroes, Tomorrow's Heroes
As we speak, the Vikings are sort of at it again with Daniel Jones. They're grooming him on the practice squad. Rehabilitating him.
They might even promote him to the active roster this week.
"Yeah, we're going to have some dialogue about that as far as the timing of it," Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell said Monday. "Daniel's been quietly behind the scenes putting in some phenomenal work and I’m probably more excited, as I told him the other day, more excited now than even as excited as I was to get him in here day one, just by what he's shown us already and so that's definitely something we're going to talk about."
What we've seen on the field from quarterbacks in 2024 should give solace to Will Levis, Carson Wentz, Justin Fields, maybe even Mitchell Trubisky, Zach Wilson, Young and Jones, that the path full obstacles now may clear up ahead.
Past failures don't guarantee future failures.
The only thing that's guaranteed here is that the people making decisions on these quarterbacks get it wrong. All the time.