NFL QB Attention Shifts After The Draft To Lawrence, Love, Tua, Goff Huge Contract Extensions

The focus now is on the quarterbacks about to be drafted, and that's understandable because in eight days the names of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and others will spill from NFL commissioner Roger Goodell's mouth on national television.

Those fresh-faced rookies will be welcomed as the league's next set of promising stars.

But there's another set of quarterbacks that will dominate the headlines after the draft's hype fades. It'll happen later this spring or in the summer. And those guys may not be lauded as future stars or franchise saviors anymore.

Because those guys have been around for years. And even though they're in line for gargantuan contract extensions, most come with questions. With unmet potential.

Maybe even with doubts.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins are introduced prior to a game. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

NFL Quarterback's In Line For  Big Pay Days

Meet the next set of quarterbacks in line for big NFL paydays this offseason: 

Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers.

Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions.

Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys.

All are scheduled to enter the final year of their current contracts in September. All started this offseason hoping, maybe expecting, extensions that would give them some certainty about their future.

Most of the players just mentioned will get their extension (more on that in a moment) before the regular season. But some may not. 

And either way, the decision comes with a serious gamble. Because paying a quarterback who hasn't fully arrived, and then never arrives while drawing a huge salary, is a disaster.

This is where I remind you about the NFL's most important truth:

It is better to have a bad quarterback, or no quarterback at all, than to have a struggling or even merely solid quarterback collecting checks from a huge contract.

The former two can be corrected. The latter often gets people fired.

Daniel Jones, QB1? (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Daniel Jones Questions Linger

A highly paid quarterback who under-performs, suffers durability problems or simply doesn't meet expectations is a nightmare. He is a drag on the salary cap, on every teammate depending on him, on the coaching staff that doesn't fully develop him, on the personnel department that mistakenly committed to him.

That dude is a breach in the ship's bow. And everybody's going down. 

That player typically does just enough to convince a lot of people he's worthy of that big extension. So, teams often stick with him beyond a rough year or two. But throughout that uncertain time, there are uncomfortable questions.

Like when is this guy getting replaced? 

That's where Daniel Jones is now with the Giants. That's where Russell Wilson was last year with the Broncos. That's where Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and perhaps even Jalen Hurts might be in a few years if they don't perform above 2023 standards. 

But that's off in the distance. The big decisions (and gambles) loom this offseason with the players staring at extensions.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Lawrence And Jaguars Talking

"Yeah, there’s definitely been some conversations as far as where that’s at now," Lawrence told reporters on Tuesday. "It’s not really my focus, I’d love to obviously be a Jag for as long as possible. We love it here, and I love where we’re headed as an organization and feel like I’m just getting better. 

"My best ball is definitely ahead of me."

There's the gamble. Maybe Lawrence's best is indeed just ahead. The Jaguars, already engaging in extension talks, obviously agree. But that was the feeling before the 2023 season as well.

And then Lawrence delivered something of a setback season, throwing 14 interceptions and struggling with injuries. The 14 picks were closer to the 17 he had as a rookie amid the turmoil of the Urban Meyer experience, than the 8 he threw in 2022 amid the stability of Doug Pederson's first season.

So which one is it the Jaguars would be getting more of when they and Lawrence sign this extension? 

Head coach Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins speaks with Tua Tagovailoa. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Can Tua Play Big In Big Games?

The Dolphins believe they have answers to that very question regarding Tagovailoa. They're so sure about their starter that general manager Chris Grier said Tuesday drafting a quarterback in the first round has not even been discussed internally.

"There are some good players, but we’re very happy with Tua and where he is with us," Grier said. "As [head coach] Mike [McDaniel] has told you guys, we feel like there is a whole other step that he can take, so we’re excited about his future."

It's great the Dolphins have strong conviction about their quarterback's future. They've been right about Tagovailoa at each step during McDaniel's two seasons, so they've earned trust.

But the fact remains, Tagovailoa also threw 14 interceptions last season. And his final three outings, when the team was chasing a division title or a playoff win, Tagovailoa's production shrunk in losses to Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City.

So the Dolphins are projecting an extension would pay for a quarterback who will raise his game in the big games. But they're obviously gambling on that because nobody has seen it yet.

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love throws a pass against the Bears at Soldier Field in Chicago. (Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Packers Love Their QB

Now for a contrast from the Packers and Cowboys: 

The Packers are going to give Love an extension because they believe they've already seen enough.

He threw 32 TD passes last year, but it's about more than that. He threw three of those in a victory over the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. He led the team to a playoff win over the Cowboys. He had a QB rating over 100 in five of his final six games, including the playoffs.

And Love did this with a young, rebuilding team in his first full season as the starter.

Dak Prescott.  (Getty Images)

Dak Prescott Must Prove It

The contrast is the Cowboys with Prescott. They've seen a lot from Prescott in his eight seasons. But they've decided not to give him an extension and let the '24 season play out before they pay their quarterback again.

Why?

Because the Cowboys have been a playoff disappointment the last three years, losing to the Packers last season and the 49ers the previous two. 

And the problem hasn't been that Prescott played poorly. He was generally solid or even good. But he was already getting a sizable salary from his first contract extension, and the expectation was he'd deliver at a higher level than merely solid or good.

So club owner Jerry Jones, who believes the roster he compiled was Super Bowl caliber, has put his quarterback on notice. Jones apparently wants to see Prescott play great before he pays him great again.

And even that comes with a gamble. Because if Prescott performs, the price of paying him could break records.

Jared Goff looks much more comfortable with the Lions. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Jared Goff Has Been Here Before

All these decisions are seismic whichever way they go.

The Lions are pointed in the direction of extending Goff. He said Tuesday conversations with the team about the subject have begun. 

"There's been discussions, I'll leave it at that," he said. "…I would love to be here for a long time."

But Goff has been down this road before. He got a $134 million extension from the Rams after leading them to the Super Bowl in 2018-19. His problem is he then failed to perform up to the standard the Rams believed they were paying for. 

So he was traded to Detroit. Goff must understand if he gets paid by the Lions, he'll face the same lofty expectations set by his big salary again.

Because the last thing the Lions want is to pay a quarterback who doesn't perform.