NFL Has A Big Problem: The Product Keeps Getting Worse

The National Football League has a serious problem. 

Well, mathematically, it doesn't. The ever-increasing sports betting industry has propped up ratings in recent years. Having just 17 games per season ensures that the overwhelming majority of tickets will be sold each season. Though attendance did drop by 160,000 tickets from 2023 to 2024. And in a market desperate for big ratings and high-dollar advertising prices, any package of NFL games will command immense interest. 

But the quality of the product has continually deteriorated, to the point where some fans, so frustrated by another predictable Super Bowl matchup, have taken to - *gasp* - complaining about the NFL. 

Stop if you've heard this before: the Kansas City Chiefs benefited from several questionable officiating decisions to win a close game. The latest in a long string of such games. Preceded by a blowout win from the Philadelphia Eagles over the Washington Commanders. Which followed a Wild Card weekend that had just one competitive game. 

SIGN UP FOR TUBI AND STREAM SUPER BOWL LIX FOR FREE

The divisional round was marginally more entertaining, but it exemplified a problem that's becoming exceedingly obvious in recent years: the NFL has gotten boring. 

Defenses are too good, the gaps between teams are too big, and the dominance of one or two quarterbacks matters more than almost any other factor. Commercial loads have gotten too big, time between plays too long. The problem has been bubbling up, but the Chiefs' result seems to have broken the dam on criticizing the country's most powerful league.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell speaks to the media during a press conference ahead of Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium on February 5, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

NFL Has Problems To Fix, Without Many Solutions

Thanks to the omnipresent commercial load, halftime, wasted time on shots of the sideline, coaches, celebrities or players standing around, NFL games with a 60-minute clock now routinely take 190+ minutes to complete. Per Axios, it's now the only major professional sport with an average game time of more than three hours.

That's one thing, but the games themselves continue to get worse. 

Passing offense has stagnated; teams averaged just 1.4 passing touchdowns per game in 2024, with 0.8 interceptions per game. In 2018, NFL teams averaged 23.3 points per game and 238 passing yards per game. In 2024, that had declined to 22.9 and 217.6. 

It'd be one thing if rushing offenses were significantly better to compensate, but in 2018 the league averaged 4.4 yards per rushing attempt and in 2024, it was…4.4.

Of the 12 playoff games thus far, just four were decided by one score or less. Though of course, the Chiefs-Texans game might have been closer had the Chiefs not benefited from missed calls in that game too.

And that's the crux of the issue; year after year, the ultimate results are simply too predictable. It's been that way for most of the past two decades, but fans have been too distracted by gambling and fantasy football to notice. It seems like many of them finally are.

The Chiefs have now made the Super Bowl five times in the last six seasons. The 2021 Cincinnati Bengals are the only non-Chiefs or Patriots team to win the AFC since 2015. That's not a misprint; there's been one AFC team other than the Chiefs or Patriots to reach the Super Bowl in the last decade.

12 of the last 17 AFC Champions have been the Chiefs or Patriots. 

The NFC hasn't been quite as bad, but since 2017, the NFC Champions have gone: 

• Philadelphia Eagles
• Los Angeles Rams
• San Francisco 49ers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Rams
• Philadelphia Eagles
• San Francisco 49ers
• Philadelphia Eagles

So all told just seven different organizations have made the Super Bowl since 2017. Not healthy.

Offense has stagnated or decreased. Games are frequently non-competitive. And the importance of having a top level quarterback is so significant that it makes dynasties a near foregone conclusion. These are structural issues with the NFL with no easy fix. The league has already made it harder on defenses with illegal contact penalties, made touching the quarterback a roughing the passer penalty and severely punishes pass interference. It still hasn't helped. 

Like it or not, this is what the game is and is likely to be. What remains to be seen is how long gambling and fantasy will prop it up.