NFL 'First-Half' Report Card For The AFC: My Preseason Predictions Were A Complete Disaster | Dan Zaksheske
Earlier this week, I graded myself on every preseason prediction I made on all 16 teams in the NFC. I got some stuff right and I got some stuff wrong. I promised to do an AFC version of that NFL 'first-half' report card, and I am a man of my word.
Honestly, I did pretty well with NFC predictions. I had six picks that I pretty much nailed, six picks that I can still hit and only four where I completely whiffed. The AFC, though, is another story. I did really, really poorly...
Revisiting preseason predictions on every AFC team
Prior to the season, I gave out an over/under on the win totals of every NFL team. Now, we're going to take a look back at those AFC picks.
AFC teams where I'm 'doubling-down' on my preseason pick
I want to start with the predictions that I think I nailed. There are two reasons for that. One is to put me in a good mood so I don't quit when it starts getting embarrassing. But the second, and more important reason, is because there's nothing better than building someone up just to tear them down.
I'm willing to do that to myself just for your entertainment. Not all heroes wear capes.
Kansas City Chiefs Predicted Win Total: OVER 11.5
I have some concerns about the Chiefs' offense, admittedly. I don't think this team is as good as last year's Super Bowl Champion squad. However, they have seven wins already, and need five more to reach 12 and hit the over. They play the Raiders twice plus matchups against the Packers and Patriots. They should sweep those.
If they take care of business against those teams, they have to win just win of their tougher remaining contests against the Eagles, Bengals, Bills and Chargers. I'm confident that Kansas City ultimately wins 13 games and captures the best record in the AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers Predicted Win Total: OVER 8.5
I couldn't envision a world where Mike Tomlin didn't have a winning record at the end of an NFL season because, well, it's never happened. So, I bet on that trend to continue. Although the Steelers 6-3 record is a little misleading (they have a negative point differential), it's clear that Tomlin continues to get the most out of his players.
The Steelers need three wins to hit the over and I'm comfortable doubling-down on the original bet. They have some very winnable games left on the schedule and I think Pittsburgh is going to reach the AFC playoffs for the 11th time in Tomlin's 17-year career.
Houston Texans Predicted Win Total: OVER 6.5
Here's what I wrote prior to the season:
HOUSTON TEXANS SET TO SURPRISE EVERYONE THIS SEASON (August 21, 2023)
Houston is much better heading into this season than last season. And they play a very manageable schedule. They should easily beat their projected win total, and if everything goes right, don’t count the Texans out on posting a winning record at 9-8.
I want to take a moment to just enjoy this victory lap. Mostly because things are about to get very, very dark.
AFC teams where I'm 'standing pat' on my preseason pick
Baltimore Ravens Predicted Win Total: UNDER 10.5
You're probably wondering why I'm not bailing on this pick. After all, Baltimore has seven wins already and just needs to go 4-3 over their final seven games to hit the over. Yes, this will probably end up being a losing preseason pick.
However, I'd still rather ride it out. Lamar Jackson showed last week again that he struggles to close out games at times. They still have games left against the Bengals, Chargers, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins and Steelers. That's a tough schedule down the stretch, and 3-4 -- or worse -- is possible.
Buffalo Bills Predicted Win Total: OVER 10.5
You're probably wondering why I'm not bailing on this pick. That's going to be a theme of this piece as I make my way through some of my rough preseason predictions. The fact of the matter is this: I still believe in the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. I think they've had some really bad turnover luck and people are overreacting.
Seemingly everyone in the NFL media has given up on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, but not me. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)
That said, their schedule is difficult and they'd have to win six of their final seven games to reach 11 victories. That's going to be tough. They should beat the Jets and Patriots, but then they'd have to capture at least four wins from these five opponents: Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers and Dolphins.
Yikes. Improbable, but not impossible. I'm not giving up yet.
Cincinnati Bengals Predicted Win Total: OVER 10.5
I'd like to wait until after Thursday Night Football to make a decision here. And, for the Ravens, quite frankly. That's a huge game that could ultimately shape the rest of the season for the AFC. Cincinnati, like Buffalo, needs six more wins to hit the over. Unlike Buffalo, the Bengals have eight games left.
What is going to determine the Bengals future are the next three weeks. They play the Ravens, Steelers and Jaguars. I think they can win all three of those games. Then, they get the Colts and Vikings before a rematch with the Steelers and another showdown with the Chiefs before a very winnable Week 18 contest against the Browns.
Again, it's difficult to see them winning six of those games, though a little more likely than the Bills. But, I'm sticking by my AFC Champion pick and saying that the Bengals reach 11 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers Predicted Win Total: OVER 9.5
Yeah, yeah. I get it. I like the Chargers more than virtually everyone else. They're 4-5 and the season is slipping away. However, five of their next seven games are against the Packers, Patriots, Broncos (twice) and Raiders. Those are all games they need to -- and should -- win. If they do that, then they just need one win in their more difficult remaining games against the Ravens, Bills and Chiefs. I say they pull it off.
Yes, I'm also always higher on the Los Angeles Chargers than the rest of the NFL media. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Cleveland Browns Predicted Win Total: UNDER 9.5
This one looks a lot safer after the Deshaun Watson injury, but the Browns are definitely better than I thought they'd be. However, I never felt their offense would be great and it really isn't. So why not double-down, since they still need four wins without their starting quarterback?
Their schedule. I don't think the Browns are great, but they still get to play the Broncos, Bears and Jets. Even some of their more difficult games aren't that difficult (Steelers, Rams, Texans). There's a world where the Browns defense carries them to four more wins. I don't think it happens, but it's possible.
Denver Broncos Predicted Win Total: UNDER 8.5
I still don't buy the Denver Broncos. The win over the Chiefs was strong, but neither of their past two victories was impressive. Five more wins for this team? I don't see it. It could happen, but I don't think it will. They've gotten good luck, so good for them. Good luck runs out.
Las Vegas Raiders Predicted Win Total: UNDER 6.5
The Raiders need just two wins to beat their preseason win total. This might look like a clear "surrender" since they only need to go 2-5 the rest of the way to hit the number. However, they still have to play the Chiefs twice, the Dolphins this week (where they're nearly two-touchdown underdogs), the Vikings, Chargers, Colts and Broncos.
Those last four games aren't exactly daunting, but there's a world where they lose all four of them. Definitely a world where they beat only the Broncos. I'm going to hang onto this one a little while longer.
AFC teams where I'm 'surrendering' my preseason pick
Ok, here's the moment you've all eagerly been waiting for. Spoiler alert: outside of my genius Houston Texans call, I completely butchered the AFC South. Oh, and the AFC East, too. Whoops.
Jacksonville Jaguars Predicted Win Total: UNDER 9.5
Yeah, this is a whiff. Granted, I still don't think Jacksonville is nearly as good as the upper-echelon teams in the AFC. However, they're clearly the class of the AFC South. But, with a terrific first season for C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans in Houston, I'd be looking to buy stock in the Texans rather than in the Jaguars for next year and beyond.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are poised to win the AFC South this NFL season and I got that one wrong. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Still, the Jags need four wins in their final eight games to hit 10 and their over. With two games left against Tennessee, and games against the Browns, Buccaneers and Panthers, it's hard to envision them not winning at least that many.
Miami Dolphins Predicted Win Total: UNDER 9.5
Perhaps I was being overly pessimistic as a Dolphins fan betting against them winning ten games. They're much better than I expected mostly because I'm not a huge Tua believer. However, Mike McDaniel is a terrific schematic head coach and the Dolphins offense is truly one of the most creative in the NFL.
Like Jacksonville, it's hard to see a world where the Dolphins don't win four more games considering they still get to play the Raiders, Jets (twice), Commanders, and Titans over the next five weeks. Their schedule ends on a fairly difficult note, though, finishing with contests against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. Still, they should easily top 10 wins and probably get to 12.
New York Jets Predicted Win Total: OVER 9.5
I'm giving myself a pass here because obviously this was based on Aaron Rodgers playing more than four snaps. And, he still might. But, it's going to be tough for them to get to 10 wins. Seeing how they've played with Zach Wilson, though, proves that a healthy Rodgers almost certainly would have gotten them to double-digit wins.
Zach Wilson somehow managed to keep the Jets in the NFL playoff picture through 10 weeks, but there's no way he gets them to double-digit wins. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Tennessee Titans Predicted Win Total: OVER 7.5
Yeah, I just totally butchered the AFC South. I thought Tennessee would rebound from last year and they didn't. Whoops.
Indianapolis Colts Predicted Win Total: UNDER 6.5
See above note. Granted, I don't think the Colts are great, but they already have five wins. Their schedule is too easy the rest of the way for them to not reach at least seven. I'll need to re-evaluate my process when it comes to the AFC South next NFL season.
New England Patriots Predicted Win Total: OVER 6.5
Ditto on the AFC East, where I'm now on my third surrendered bet in that division. My OutKick betting buddy Geoff Clark nailed the Patriots prior to the season. I, however, did not. Hat tip to Geoff because New England is going to be lucky to get to four wins, let alone seven.
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