NFL Analytics Nerds Tell Us Who Deserves The MVP Award & One Of The Betting Favorites Doesn't Belong In Conversation
Let me start by saying this: I mean that headline in the nicest possible way. Mostly because I'm also talking about myself. I love analytics in football. And, really, in general. Using them to help determine NFL MVP just makes sense.
The only problem is that everyone has their own method for calculating value. Personally, I don't have my own system. I like to look at what all the super smart math guys come up with and then use my own knowledge to come to conclusions.
Where does my own knowledge come from? Watching every, single NFL game. Yes, all of them. Thankfully, I have a wife who understands how important that is to me and my career. Because of that, here's what our living room looks like on a Sunday:
I have strong thoughts on the NFL MVP award because I watch everything.
I am right more often than I am wrong using this method, so I am sticking to it. Does that mean I get everything right? Of course not. If I did, I'd just bet on the NFL for a living.
However, when I look around the landscape of NFL analysts and prognosticators, especially over the long-term, I find that myself and other nerds do much better at predicting than the "analysts" on ESPN or other platforms.
Why? They come to a lot of their conclusions based on emotion. Emotion crushes people's ability to think and see clearly. We're seeing that in society, especially among leadership.
This isn't about that, though. This is about using logic, reason, statistics and knowledge to come to a conclusion.
Major League Baseball provides a great example of using more advanced statistics to draw conclusions. League MVPs were generally chosen based on things like batting average, home runs, RBI, etc.
But, someone introduced something called WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to better calculate a player's value.
It's time to start using more of these types of stats in football.
That all being said, here's what the nerds think about the NFL MVP award, compared to what the Las Vegas odds say (based on what they think voters will do).
NFL MVP Candidates, Ranked Through Week 15
Calculated using data from five sources (PFF, ESPN Analytics, The Athletic, RBSDM, & NFELO)
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (-200 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let me start here: I've gone back-and-forth on this, but I finally reached a conclusion. The MVP has to be a quarterback. There is no more valuable position in football. Period. Christian McCaffrey is a great player and certainly helps Brock Purdy. But, the quarterback makes everything else go.
Yes, we can dock Purdy a few points because he has such talented players around him. However, the numbers are clear: Brock Purdy is the most valuable player in football. The nerds don't think it's very close, either.
The choice for NFL MVP after Week 15 is clear: San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Purdy sits at the top of the rankings for three of the five services. His lowest ranking comes at NFELO (6). All of the places where's #1 (ESPN, RBDSM, Athletic), he's well-above the player ranked behind him.
Personally, I do believe that Purdy benefits from both coaching scheme (Kyle Shanahan) and surrounding personnel (McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle). However, the 49ers offensive line isn't nearly as good as some of the other contenders.
Plus, the system doesn't work without the perfect quarterback. Purdy made himself into exactly what he needed to be to make this team successful. Knock him all you want, but he's currently the most valuable player in football.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (+1200)
I understand that NFL MVP voters want players who are on dominant teams. But, to me, that's a bit of an outdated concept. What would the Bills record be if they had a replacement-level QB? How many more wins do they have because of Allen? That's what should really matter.
If a player vaults his team from a 2-win team to a 9-win team, isn't that more valuable than someone who takes an 8-win team and makes them a 12-win team?
Allen doesn't rank outside the Top 4 at any of the five services. He's one of only two players that can make that claim. The other is next on this list. However, Allen also ranks first at one of the services (NFELO), so that gives him the edge.
Josh Allen never seems to get the credit his deserves for his elite abilities. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Plus, watching Buffalo Bills games tells you everything you need to know. Josh Allen is a special NFL quarterback. Many jumped off his bandwagon after a few games with some turnovers. But, that's all the more reason that Allen is the most valuable. He HAS to risk turnovers to make big plays because he's the entire offense.
Allen won't win the NFL MVP award (he's the fifth-favorite according to the betting odds), but that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve it. That just means that the voters often use poor criteria. They certainly do with regards to Allen and one other player. We'll get to him later...
3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+700)
Dak Prescott is the other player who ranks in the Top 4 according to every service, but his highest ranking is second (ESPN). Coming off a terrible performance, many downgraded Prescott. However, that's one game. Too many people make emotional decisions based on one outcome. Yes, it was a big game. But, overall, the Dallas Cowboys are one of the elite teams in the NFL.
They are in the position because Prescott is playing probably the best football of his career. The numbers say it and watching him play says it. The anti-Cowboys contingent will always poke holes, but give Prescott his due. He's playing great this season and he's the third-most valuable player in football right now.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+2500)
Patrick Mahomes is having a down year and he's still the fourth-most valuable player in the NFL. That speaks to just how great he is. He's definitely not going to win the NFL MVP award because the Chiefs are likely to fall short of expectations.
Mahomes is a victim of his own success. People only compare him against himself. This isn't a typical Mahomes season, and that's reflected in his betting odds. Still, he doesn't rank outside the Top 7 at any of the five services and even ranks second at one of them (NFELO).
There's not much more to say about Mahomes. He's still great even when he's not at his best.
5. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+2800)
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most fascinating players in professional football. In fact, I think he's the one player that we can all agree that we will never agree on. I know this from a personal standpoint.
Each year, I attend a Christmas party with several other couples. One of the husbands, a friend of mine named Sal, is a MASSIVE Dolphins fan. Last year, he argued with me for 20 minutes about how great Tua is. I, of course, disagree. He's a good player, not a great one, in my opinion.
I've had arguments here at OutKick with fellow Dolphins fan Zach Dean. Dean is a proud member of Tuanon. The point is that Tua splits the room, even amongst Dolphins fans.
Tua Tagovailoa splits Dolphins fans, analytics nerds and NFL MVP voters. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
And, guess what? He splits the nerds, too. While each service has its own evaluating system, they all agree to some extent. You can see from the above entries how most guys fall within a certain range at every site.
However, that's not the case here. One service (PFF) ranks Tua Tagovailoa as #1 overall. NFELO ranks him at #9. That's not his lowest ranking, either. ESPN ranks Tagovailoa outside the Top 10 (#11). Still the other two both have him at #2. That's a pretty wide chasm for one player.
I'm not the biggest fan of his from an ability standpoint, but I can't deny he is playing very well this season. Unfortunately, he reminds of Jalen Hurts last season in that I think this might be his ceiling while many expect this is his average. Plus, once the league catches up to McDaniel's scheme, there might be some challenges ahead.
I hope I'm wrong. But, I'm usually not.
Other NFL MVP Candidates
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+450)
Basically, the premise for this entire article stems from Jackson. I was scrolling through social media and came across this:
Then, I looked at the betting odds. Jackson comes in second, only trailing Brock Purdy. OK, fine. Let's take a look at what the numbers say.
Here's what they say: Jackson doesn't belong in this conversation. Now, let me be fair to Jackson before I dive into the numbers. He's one of the hardest players to quantify value because he does so many things with his legs that change the way defenses prepare for the Ravens offense.
That being said, he just doesn't compare with the other players on this list. His highest ranking is #5. Some of these rankings don't take rushing into account. However, Josh Allen relies heavily on rushing, too. But, he outranks Jackson at every service.
And, he's having a better rushing season. Thus, if you're a voter and you think Lamar Jackson is MVP because of his dual-threat ability, then you should be voting for Allen.
NFELO does take rushing into account, and they still have Jackson at #7, six spots behind Allen. PFF does, too, and Jackson is #5. The Athletic doesn't and they have Jackson at #15 behind Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. Yikes.
Lamar Jackson frequently get more media praise than he deserves and it might help him win a second NFL MVP award. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
Here's a nugget from the Athletic ranking: "Since his Week 7 explosion against the Lions (0.73 EPA rate, 22.4 total EPA, 155.8 passer rating), Jackson has produced a -0.03 EPA rate, -7.6 total EPA and 91.1 passer rating in the last seven games."
Jackson is a fun player and a very good player, but he's not nearly as great or valuable as the media wants him to be.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+2000)
Despite the Eagles slide, Hurts still ranks with the sixth-shortest odds to win NFL MVP and fifth-shortest among quarterbacks. This is absurd.
NFELO likes him the most, probably because of the "Tush Push" that has allowed Hurts to"rush" for 14 touchdowns this season. Look, it's valuable to have a quarterback that squats 600 pounds. Clearly, no team runs that play like the Eagles.
But, do we think Josh Allen couldn't pull that off if you plugged him into the Eagles system? Or Dak Prescott? Or even Patrick Mahomes?
He's a fringe Top 10 passer this year who benefits from an Eagles team with a record that just doesn't match their productivity. The Eagles are 10-4 with a point differential of +18. The Cowboys are a 10-4 team with a point differential of +167.
If you look at teams with similar point differentials, it shows the wild disparity. The Vikings and Rams are each 7-7 with a +21 and a +17 differential, respectively.
Hurts is a good player, but he played out of his mind last season. He came back down to earth this season. There are more valuable players in the NFL.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (No odds)
Kirk Cousins doesn't belong in the NFL MVP conversation this year, obviously. However, I want to take a quick victory lap. As a massive defender of Cousins, I just want everyone to know that he was putting up MVP numbers before his injury.
Even with the injury, he still ranks incredibly high at several of the listed services (Top 6 at three of them, one doesn't rank him due to limited snaps). It's too bad he got hurt because clearly this Vikings team had a chance to be special.