The New York Mets Have An Edwin Diaz Problem At The Worst Possible Time
The New York Mets are, surprisingly, fighting for their playoff lives.
After a disastrous 2023, expectations in Queens were low, to say the least. Especially after a 9-19 record in May saw the Mets enter June at just 24-35, well off the playoff pace. But a resurgent Francisco Lindor helped fuel a spectacular June and July, with New York going 33-18 to put themselves squarely in the postseason picture.
August, with games against wild card leading teams like the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, was set up to be a pivotal month for their playoff hopes. In a four-game series in San Diego, the Mets easily took two of the first three games. With a chance to take three out of four and move to within just one and a half games of the third wild card position, the Mets entered the 8th inning with a two-run lead.
Phil Maton promptly served up a two-run homer to Jurickson Profar, continuing San Diego's improbable run of high leverage success.
READ: San Diego Padres Have Suddenly Turned Into Most ‘Clutch’ Team In Baseball History
Still, with the game tied in the bottom of the 9th, New York turned to closer Edwin Diaz to shut the door and move the game into extras with a chance to win. Sure enough, he gave up a walk-off home run to Jackson Merrill to keep the Mets two and a half games back.
It got worse on Wednesday.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 09: Edwin Diaz #39 of the New York Mets throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the eighth inning in game three of the National League Wild Card Series at Citi Field on October 09, 2022 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
Edwin Diaz' Struggles Costing Mets Dearly
Wedesnday against the Arizona Diamondbacks was yet another all-important game against a team the Mets are chasing for a playoff spot. In the 8th inning, with the Mets leading 5-4, manager Carlos Mendoza brought Diaz in with two outs and a runner at first.
He walked Pavin Smith on four pitches. Then he walked Geraldo Perdomo to load the bases. Corbin Carroll unloaded them.
Another late lead turned into an 8-5 loss. Back-to-back outings against playoff teams with the game on the line, back-to-back game changing home runs allowed.
When Diaz last pitched in the Major Leagues, his ERA was 1.31. After returning from injury, it's now 4.30. In 2022, he allowed home runs on just 9.4% of fly balls. This season, it's nearly 22%. That's not going to work.
While Diaz has shown flashes of brilliance, his strikeout rate is down, walks are up, and home runs are way up. That's a bad combination. And it's likely due to diminished fastball velocity. In 2021, Diaz averaged 98.8mph on his fastball. It was 99.1 in 2022. It's 97.3 in 2024.
Hitters are suddenly catching up to those fastballs over the plate, and they're not missing them.
While the Mets are hardly eliminated; a four-game lead for the Atlanta Braves could easily disappear in the next month, each game becomes a must win. The two losses to San Diego and Arizona were especially impactful. With precious few games remaining, the Mets have to figure out their closer situation in a hurry. Whether Diaz is the answer or not.