NCAA Tournament Breakdown: West Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East Region, and now move on to the West, headlined by the tournament's #4 overall seed, North Carolina Tar Heels…
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 North Carolina Tar Heels
This might seem like a chalk pick, but it really isn't. The overwhelming consensus here is that North Carolina doesn't deserve to be a #1 seed, and betting sites back that up. On DraftKings, for example, North Carolina is the only #1 seed NOT favored to reach the Final Four. The Tar Heels are +240 to win the region, with the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats as the favorites (+190).
The irony here is that Arizona's best player, Caleb Love, transferred from North Carolina after last year's disastrous season in Chapel Hill. Here's the thing, though. Caleb Love is overrated. There, I said it. I watched him tank many North Carolina games last season by taking terrible shots and holding onto the ball too long.
With Love gone, RJ Davis became the focal point of the Tar Heels offense and that changed everything. They went from a team that didn't make the NCAA Tournament with Love running the offense to a team that won the ACC regular season title and finished runner-up to a smoking-hot NC State program in the ACC Tournament.
North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis dribbles the ball against the North Carolina State Wolfpack during the ACC Tournament Championship.
(Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports)
People are sleeping on North Carolina as they become a trendy pick to fade in the NCAA Tournament. Many pundits predict Michigan State will beat North Carolina and keep them from even reaching the second weekend. I think this is all folly. UNC is a #1 seed for good reason. They should win this region.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #11 New Mexico
You want a big-time sleeper team? How about the #11 Nex Mexico Lobos?? That bold enough for you?? KenPom rates New Mexico as the 23rd-best team in the country, the only Top 25 team to receive a double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. They're actually rated nine spots higher than #6 Clemson, their first round opponent.
Las Vegas agrees with that assessment, as well, with DraftKings making the Lobos (-2) favorites over the Tigers, despite Clemson coming in five seeds higher than New Mexico. That means that if New Mexico beats Clemson in the first round, it's not even technically an upset.
If that happens, the Lobos will likely face Baylor in the second round. Baylor is another overrated team coming out of the overrated Big 12. A win there puts New Mexico on a potential collision course with everyone's favorite team in this region, Arizona. The Wildcats like to play fast (16th in adjusted tempo), but the Lobos play even faster (8th in adjusted tempo).
New Mexico rolled through the Mountain West Conference Tournament, winning four games in four days. It won those games by an average of 14 points, beating San Diego State in the championship by seven points.
Jaelen House of the New Mexico Lobos holds the Mountain West Trophy after defeating the San Diego State Aztecs in the championship game.
(Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Obviously, the committee thinks the Mountain West is a good conference, putting six teams in the dance. We can debate the merits of that, but that's the league New Mexico just won.
The Lobos feel VERY under-seeded as an 11, and I can easily envision them making a Cinderella-type run in March Madness.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Not Reach Sweet 16: #3 Baylor
Just like in my East Region breakdown, I see an overrated Big 12 team getting bounced early. In the West, that team is Baylor. Quite honestly, I can envision a world where none of the teams seeded 3-5 reach the second weekend. St. Mary's and Alabama are both on first-round upset watch.
While I don't necessarily think the Bears are going to have much trouble in the First Round against Colgate, as presented in my "sleeper" pick, I think New Mexico can easily beat Baylor in the Round of 32.
Baylor ranks 14th, according to KenPom, just nine spots ahead of New Mexico. That's not a large disparity when you consider that New Mexico is an 11 seed and Baylor is a #3. This pick is largely predicated on New Mexico beating Baylor, but there's a world where #6 Clemson beats New Mexico and then the Tigers beat the Bears.
I'm not high on Baylor, as you can tell, and it would shock me to see them get to the Final Four out of this region.
First Round Upset Watch: #13 College of Charleston over #4 Alabama
Quite frankly, if you look at my picks up to this point, you can see that I think there's a chance this region is a complete bloodbath. And, of course, I mean that in the metaphorical sense. I know that word carries a new meaning all of a sudden, so I figured I should clarify it.
Obviously, since I have New Mexico as a sleeper Final Four team, I think they will beat #6 Clemson in the First Round. But I want to provide more content than just repeating myself and, quite frankly, I'm considering picking Charleston to stun Alabama in round one, as well. For what it's worth, I'm also watching a potential upset of St. Mary's in round one at the hands of Grand Canyon.
For the purposes of this piece, though, I'm going with Charleston as the big upset in this region. Alabama plays at a fast tempo and relies on outscoring its opponents. The Tide don't play a ton of defense. The thing is, Charleston plays at a Top-60 pace, too, and they have a good offense as well.
Charleston Cougars guard Reyne Smith reacts to making a three-point basket during the CAA Men’s Basketball Championship.
(Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images)
The Cougars shoot 35% from 3-point range, and have attempted the third-most 3-pointers of any team in Division-I this season. They live and die by the three ball and that's exactly what you want in a team trying to pull a massive first-round upset. Charleston is also Top 20 in the country in offensive rebounds, another key statistic when looking for upset-minded teams.
Look, Alabama is far more talented than Charleston and, of course, there's a chance the Tide will just run them completely out of the gym. But Charleston has the hallmarks of a team that can pull off a major upset, so this should be an interesting first round matchup.
Player To Watch: Caleb Love, #2 Arizona
OK, OK, OK. I know I trashed Love in the section about North Carolina. But the reasons I gave there are exactly why he's the "player to watch." When Caleb Love is on, he's a lot of fun to watch. He finished fourth in the Pac-12 in scoring at 18.1 points per game.
But Arizona is 1-2 in their three games heading into the NCAA Tournament and Love's struggles are a big reason why. He scored just 2 points in the regular season finale, a loss to USC. Then, he scored 11 points against USC in a Pac-12 Tournament victory.
Oregon upset Arizona in the semifinal of the conference tournament, once again largely because of Love's struggles. He scored just six points in that game.
Arizona Wildcats guard Caleb Love has had an up-and-down season.
(Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)
Here are Love's field goal numbers in those three games: 1-10, 4-13, 2-11. If you're counting at home, that's 21% from the field. He was also 4-21 (19%) from three-point range in that stretch.
That's who Love is: a talented player who goes very, very cold but never stops shooting. And that's exactly what makes him the player to watch in this region. He's out to prove that he made the right decision by leaving North Carolina to come to Arizona.
His level of play will basically determine how far Arizona goes. Personally, I wouldn't bet much on him taking the Wildcats to the Final Four.