NCAA Tournament Breakdown: South Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East Region, moved on to the West Region, and now we look at the South Region, headlined by the #2 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Houston Cougars…
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Houston
Yes, I know that the #1 seeds are headlining this section in every region. But Houston is truly a very good team that drew a very nice path to the Final Four. Duke is a strong #4 seed, but Kentucky is the lowest-rated #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and Marquette is the lowest-rated #2, according to both KenPom and the NET Rankings.
And although Duke is one of the highest-rated #4 seeds in the tournament, they are playing their worst basketball of the season right now, having lost each of their past two games. Then, there's the overrated #5 seed Wisconsin.
Houston really owes the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee a fruit basket or an edible arrangement or something. UConn must be looking at Houston's path, wishing that's what stood between them and the Final Four.
Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer reacts after making a basket during a game against the Kansas Jayhawks.
(Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports)
Speaking of UConn, Houston has the second-best odds (+500) to win the National Championship, trailing only the Huskies, according to DraftKings. They are also the #2 overall team on KenPom, while sitting as the #1 overall team in the NCAA's NET Rankings.
They should advance to the Final Four with relative ease, unless Duke gets it figured out prior to their potential matchup. That's certainly a possibility and makes the Blue Devils the second-most-likely team to come out of the South Region.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #4 Duke
I don't see much in-between with this year's Blue Devils squad. Either they're going to show up to the tournament and play like they've been playing the last couple of games and suffer another embarrassing first-round upset, or they're going to play like the team everyone thought they were early in the season and make a Final Four run.
The numbers say that the latter is much more likely. Duke is the #8 team overall on KenPom and the #10 team overall according to the NET Rankings. TeamRankings also has them as a Top 10 team, according to their predictive metrics.
Duke Blue Devils center Kyle Filipowski dunks during a win over the Virginia Cavaliers.
(Rob Kinnan/USA TODAY Sports)
The other major factor that the Blue Devils have in their favor is their path. Vermont is the lowest-rated 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin isn't a difficult #5 seed, if they beat James Madison – which I don't think they will.
Of course, then Duke would have to face Houston, but those would be the two best teams left from this region and should be the de facto Final Four battle, even though the winner would have to win the South Regional final.
The most-likely outcome remains Houston, but don't count Duke out for a tournament run.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Not Reach Sweet 16: #3 Kentucky
Kentucky seems to be getting by on name value alone right now. They're a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament despite being ranked behind many, many teams that are on lower seed lines. They're the lowest-rated #3 seed according to all three predictive metrics services and just a fringe Top 20 team (probably deserved a #5 seed).
They have a relatively easy first-round matchup against Oakland, a game they are heavily favored to win (-13.5 at DraftKings).
Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari questions a call during a game against the Texas A&M Aggies.
(Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)
However, things get a bit dicier for the Cats after that. They would play the winner of the Texas Tech/NC State matchup in the 6/11 game. Texas Tech rates similarly to Kentucky in predictive metrics despite the large seed disparity. Plus, NC State is the hottest team in the country after rattling off five-straight wins to capture the ACC Tournament crown.
Either matchup presents problems for the Cats, and it's not hard to see an overrated Kentucky team failing to get past the first weekend.
First Round Upset Watch: #12 James Madison over #5 Wisconsin
This is a classic 5/12 matchup that should provide some good drama in the first round. James Madison went 31-3 this season and enter the NCAA Tournament on a 13-game winning streak – the longest active streak in the country. Not only that, but the Dukes haven’t even trailed during the second half in any of their past five games.
James Madison Dukes players after a timeout during a game against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
(Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports)
James Madison can SCORE the basketball, ranking inside the Top 10 in points per game (84.4), while Wisconsin's defense is its biggest weakness. The key to this game will be the pace and tempo. Can JMU force Wisconsin to speed up, or will Wisconsin succeed at slowing the Dukes down?
James Madison plays with a Top-75 adjusted tempo, according to KenPom, while Wisconsin plays with a tempo among the slowest 60 teams in the nation. That's the key to this game, and I like James Madison to speed up Wisconsin and force them into enough mistakes to pull off the first-round upset.
Player To Watch: Tyler Kolek, #2 Marquette
Kolek hasn't played since February 28 after suffering an oblique injury. Marquette went 3-3 in those contests, including a blowout loss against UConn in the Big East Tournament Championship. The Eagles need a healthy Kolek to make a deep tournament run, which is what makes him such a critical player in this region.
Marquette Golden Eagles guard Tyler Kolek poses for a photo in front of his framed jersey during the Senior Day celebration.
(Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports)
By all accounts, Kolek expects to play in the NCAA Tournament. That's huge news for Marquette, but there are still questions about how effective he can be. He leads the entire country in assists per game (7.6) and he's the engine that makes the Eagles offense go.
He also shoots 40% from three and nearly 90% from the free throw line while scoring 15 points per contest. And, for good measure, he averages nearly five rebounds per game, too. His health is a major factor in determining Marquette's tournament fate and something worth monitoring in their opening weekend games.