NCAA Tournament Breakdown: Midwest Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East Region, moved on to the West Region, then the South Region, and now we finish with the Midwest, headlined by the tournament's #3 overall seed, the Purdue Boilermakers…
Most Likely Final Four Team: #2 Tennessee Volunteers
I just don't believe in Purdue. There, I said it. What the Boilermakers are attempting to do is not unprecedented, which is pretty wild. Purdue lost in the first round last year, as a #1 seed, to 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson. That happened only one other time in NCAA Tournament history: when #1 Virginia lost to #16 UMBC in the first round of the 2018 March Madness tournament.
The very next season, Virginia returned as a tournament #1 seed and ran the table to win the entire thing. Coincidentally, that's the exact position Purdue finds itself in this season. Except, the Boilermakers haven't yet run the table and won it all. And I don't think they will.
So, who is most likely to win this region? For me, it's Tennessee. Last year, the Vols lost point guard Zakai Ziegler to injury at the end of February. Despite the loss, they still got a #4 seed in the tournament and reached the Sweet 16. But his absence was felt in a loss to Florida Atlantic.
This year, Ziegler is back and healthy, and he's joined by Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht, who has been dynamic in his first season with the Volunteers.
Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht dunks the ball during a game against Kentucky.
(Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel/USA Today Network)
In Knecht and Ziegler, Tennessee has one of the best backcourts in the entire nation and that's exactly what matters most come tournament time: guard play.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #5 Gonzaga
Gonzaga usually enters the NCAA Tournament with a lot of hype, only to fizzle out at some point too early in its run. This year, though, the Bulldogs appear to be a bit underrated. They're a Top 15 team in the nation, but everyone seems to be dismissing them as a threat this year. I think that's a mistake.
This is a battle-tested team that played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country. They lost to Purdue back in November, but the game was closer than the final score indicated. They also lost to #1 UConn in December.
In fact, only one of their seven losses came to a team that's not in the NCAA Tournament (Santa Clara on the road) and their other six losses all came to teams seeded #5 or higher in the Dance.
Gonzaga Bulldogs forward Anton Watson celebrates making a basket against the Saint Mary's Gaels during the championship game of the WCC Tournament.
(Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)
So, they lose to good teams. Isn't that the problem? Well, yes and no. The NCAA Tournament is about one thing: survive and advance. This Gonzaga team typically doesn't lose games they're supposed to win. I see a lot of people picking McNeese State to beat them in the first round. Don't buy into that hype.
The Bulldogs got a good draw, too, with an overrated Kansas team as the potential #4 seed standing in their way. If they make it to the Sweet 16, a matchup with Purdue likely awaits them. Will they win that game? I don't know. Can they? Most definitely.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Not Reach Sweet 16: #4 Kansas
Obviously, based on my Gonzaga commentary, this was an easy one to pick out. Kansas is overrated, plain and simple. Like Kentucky, the Jayhawks received a high seed based on name value and not their actual play. The Jayhawks are the lowest-rated #4 seed in this tournament by a relatively substantial margin.
That helped them get a better first round draw, but Samford is actually the best #13 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks should beat Samford, but they're also ripe for a first-round upset.
Kansas Jayhawks center Hunter Dickinson reacts after a call during a game against the Houston Cougars.
(Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports)
If Kansas does advance, they likely face Gonzaga, a team that's flat-out better than they are overall. I don't like their chances of making it to the second weekend.
First Round Upset Watch: #11 Oregon over #6 South Carolina
Honestly, this would barely qualify as an upset. How strange is that? It just goes to show that the NCAA Tournament selection committee made some incredibly questionable seeding decisions when you have 11 seeds that are either favored – or nearly favored – against 6 seeds.
That's the case here where South Carolina is just a slight favorite (-1) to beat Oregon. The Ducks ran through the Pac-12 tournament, beating teams that are better than South Carolina (Arizona, Colorado).
Oregon Ducks center N'Faly Dante cuts down the net after the Pac-12 Championship game against the Colorado Buffaloes.
(Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports)
The Gamecocks, meanwhile, lost in the SEC Tournament to Auburn by nearly 30 points. South Carolina has some good wins this season (Tennessee, Kentucky) but they also have a propensity to get their doors completely blown off (three losses by 25+ points) by good teams.
Oregon definitely qualifies as a good team, despite their disrespectful seeding. The Gamecocks rely heavily on their half-court offense and score almost no points in transition (5 PPG in transition, 343rd in the nation). But, half-court defense is where Oregon thrives.
Center N'Faly Dante can fill up the lane and force South Carolina to shoot jump shots. That's not a strength for this Gamecocks team that ranks outside the Top 200 in three-point shooting. This is a great matchup for Oregon and the Ducks should be able to keep dancing right into the Round of 32.
Player To Watch: Zach Edey, #1 Purdue
This is pretty obvious, right? The reigning National College Basketball Player of the Year has a claim to win the award for the second-straight season. Despite his dominance, the Boilermakers lost to a 16 seed in last year's NCAA Tournament. He cannot let that happen again.
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey reacts during a game against the Wisconsin Badgers in the Big 10 Tournament.
(Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports)
Edey leads all Division-I scorers at 24.4 points per game and ranks third in rebounding (11.7). He's scored at least 22 points in 10 straight games. He had 21 points and 15 rebounds in last year's upset loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, but obviously that wasn't enough.
If Purdue is going to make it as far as they're expected, Edey can't just be himself. He has to take over games and completely dominate his opponents. So far in his career, he hasn't been able to do that in the NCAA Tournament. Is this the year? That's the question on everyone's mind.