NBA Playoffs Ratings Down Big As New Media Rights Deal Looms

The NBA is close to finalizing a new 10-year media rights deal with Disney, Amazon, and the winner of the Warner Bros. Discovery-NBC battle royal. NBC is the favorite, per sources. 

The league plans to generate around $7 billion annually between the three partners. But unlike when networks signed up for 10 more years for the NFL, for $100 billion in 2018, there's reasonable skepticism about whether the NBA is worth the $70 billion it's likely to secure.

Here are three points to consider:

• Four of the five lowest-rated NBA Finals of the past 30 years have occurred in the past four years. (11.64 million viewers in 2023, 12.4 million in 2022, 9.91 million in 2021, and 7.45 million  in 2020.) 
• The NBA averaged just 1.56 million viewers across ABC, ESPN, and TNT this past season.
• The NBA has lost 45% of its audience since 2012. 

The league is in decline.

Through two rounds, the NBA playoffs averaged 3.77 million this season, down from 4.25 million last season. That's an 11 percent drop.

Websites have tried to spin the ratings positively by pointing out that the postseason is the "second-most watched two rounds in the past decade." While accurate, the statement is deceiving. 

See, Nielsen started to measure out-of-home (OOH) television viewership in 2020 by counting viewership at bars, restaurants, and casinos. However, OOH viewing didn't influence the ratings much until about 2022, after Covid restrictions were lifted.

So, of course, the ratings for the NBA (and most other sports) are up from pre-2020, when Nielsen only calculated those watching at home.

Conclusion: the ratings for the NBA playoffs should, at least, be a minor concern for the networks investing billions of dollars in the league's future. 

May 16, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) intercepts a pass against the Denver Nuggets in the second quarter during game six of the second round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

That said, we discussed in February how the NBA lacked a "future face of the league" to succeed LeBron James, who turns 40 in December. The best players at the time of the article – Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo – lacked the requisite style of play and personality to fit that role.

Then came Anthony Edwards.

The Timberwolves guard has the personality and Jordan-esque flavor to his game to be a mainstream figure in the NBA. He's Kobe Bryant with a better three-point shot. 

He is also black. 

Skin color matters in the NBA. Black players and media figures would never accept Jokic and Luka as the faces of the NBA. The animus toward those two is evident and ugly. 

Plus, Edwards is also only 22 years old. He's already in the Western Conference Finals, where his team is favored to top the Mavericks.

The NBA could certainly get behind an Anthony Edwards vs. Boston Celtics Finals, if that's the matchup. 

No sport's popularity is more dependent on star players than the NBA. If Edwards can establish himself as the guy, the NBA product over the next decade is all of a sudden far juicer. 

Hopefully, he stays out of politics. Part of the NBA's decline is due to the polarization of the product around 2016, led by LeBron James. 

We'll see if Edwards can turn around the postseason ratings. The NBA's current and future partners better hope he can.