MLB Regular Season Award Races: Who Will Win Vs. Who Should Win
It’s that time of year again in MLB.
The end of baseball year is somehow upon us, with the last weekend of the regular season starting Friday. Playoff races are at a boil, as is the debate over individual awards.
And there’s plenty to debate this year, with some flashy numbers and exceptional, unique performances.
So who should win? And who will win?
National League MVP
Who Will Win?
NL MVP is one of the closest races in recent memory, with two outstanding choices and several others who’d be considered in a more normal year.
But especially in September, one player has almost certainly wrapped up the award by making history and creating new performance clubs.
Ronald Acuna Jr on Thursday stole his 70th base of the season, meaning that he became the first player in MLB history to reach 40 home runs and 70 steals in the same season. And while there are questions about his defensive metrics, those numbers are likely too impressive to pass up.
He’s also scored over 140 runs at the top of the powerhouse Atlanta Braves lineup, hit .336 and gotten on base over 41% of the time. All in all, that’s led to 8 wins per Fangraphs WAR calculations.
While that’s not the be all end all, it does provide a useful starting point for comparison. Which is important when discussing who *should* win.
Who Should Win?
It’s been a wild year for the Los Angeles Dodgers, with injuries, arrests, and massive turnover at key positions.
But one constant has been right fielder/second baseman Mookie Betts. On top of another incredible offensive season, Betts has displayed remarkable versatility.
With the re-emergence of Jason Hayward as an above average hitter, Betts seamlessly shifted his Gold Glove defense from right field to second. And helped launch the Dodgers season into a different level in the process.
Not even in first place in the NL West at the All-Star break in July, the Dodgers used an incredible August to run away with the division, yet again. Mostly thanks to Betts.
His offensive numbers, outside of steals, are nearly identical to Acuna’s, but his defensive value puts him over the top. And he has a .3 WAR advantage too.
Acuna’s steal totals, while still undeniably impressive, have benefited from new rules making it far easier to run this year than ever. Despite the flash, Betts has been more valuable than Acuna. But it won’t matter.
It’s telling of how good they both are that Freddie Freeman and Matt Olsen, despite their excellent seasons, have no chance of winning. It’s tough to compete with history.
SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 7: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pumps his fist as he rounds the bases after hitting a grand slam during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres on August 7, 2023 at Petco Park in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
American League MVP
Who will win?
Shohei Ohtani. It’s Shohei Ohtani.
MLB’s most valuable free agent-to-be is also its most valuable player. Before going down with an elbow injury, Ohtani was one of the American League’s best pitchers. And unquestionably it’s best hitter too.
Every year he performs at an elite level on both sides of the ball, he makes history. And it took Aaron Judge’s historically prolific power to beat him in 2022.
But Judge’s injury cost him too many games to make up, and Corey Seager and Julio Rodriguez while both great, can’t compete with pitching AND hitting.
Who should win?
Shohei Ohtani. He’s that good.
National League Cy Young
Who will win?
It’s Blake Snell’s world, we’re all just living with it.
Snell, usually effective despite his prodigious propensity for walks, has harnessed his stuff this season for the first time in years. And it’s made him nearly unhittable.
Snell has a 2.27 ERA with 230 strikeouts, frequently making major league hitters look silly, chasing curveballs that bounce before reaching the plate. His performance down the stretch reached a new level, making it hard for voters to ignore him, despite pitching for a virtually eliminated Padres team.
Always one of the most tantalizing pitchers in MLB, Snell’s taken it to a new level this year. Even with the walks.
Who should win?
Spencer Strider.
Strider’s underlying performance has been significantly better than Snell’s, and if not for some bad luck, he’d be the runaway winner. His 274 strikeouts are the most in MLB, and he’s thrown more innings than Snell thanks to better control.
But his 3.81 ERA is going to be too much to overcome for voters, handing the award to Snell.
American League Cy Young
Who will win?
Gerrit Cole.
In a miserable year for the Yankees, Cole’s held up his end of the bargain, taking the ball every fifth day and dominating more often than not.
And in a time where openers and bulk pitchers are the norm, Cole’s yet again thrown over 200 innings. And they’ve been exceptional innings, with a 2.63 ERA and 209 K’s.
It’s his award to lose, and he won’t.
Who should win?
Gerrit Cole. Yeah, he’s good.
NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 16: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees celebrates after an out during a game against the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium on April 16, 2023, in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images)
National League Rookie Of The Year
Who will win?
Corbin Carroll has exceeded even lofty expectations, combining power and speed better than almost anyone in MLB. Other than Ronald Acuna, of course.
In his age-22 season, Carroll’s hit 25 homers and stolen 51 bases, while getting on base at an elite level. He’s put up nearly 6 WAR and helped send Arizona to a likely playoff berth. That’ll work.
Who should win?
Carroll. He’s excellent and a deserved winner.
American League Rookie Of The Year
Who will win?
Gunnar Henderson has been the face of the Orioles youth movement, putting up big offensive numbers and playing excellent defense.
Nearly 30 homers, 100 runs and a .500 slugging percentage when starting the year at 21-years-old? Hard to beat that. And no one in the AL will.
Who should win?
Henderson. Triston Casas has a great case too, but Henderson’s contributions at a tougher position are more valuable.