The MLB Playoff Picture Is A Complete Mess
The last month of the 2024 Major League Baseball season is almost officially upon us. Normally, there'd be a clear picture emerging of what the playoff teams will be, and just as importantly, where they'll be seeded. Not this season.
In both the National and American Leagues, playoff seeding is almost entirely up for grabs, with the NL in particular presenting a bewildering number of scenarios down the stretch. While it's confusing, it's also likely to make for exciting baseball.
The race for the best record in the National League is separated by just two games; the Dodgers at 80-54 currently have the top seed, but the Philadelphia Phillies are just one back and the Milwaukee Brewers are two behind at 78-56. All three are overwhelming favorites to make the postseason, especially Milwaukee thanks to its commanding 10 game division lead. But seeding now matters for October…a lot.
The top two seeds avoid playing in the Wild Card series, getting a bye directly to the division series round. Though securing a bye hasn't seemed as meaningful in recent years as most within the game assumed, it's a guarantee that teams and front offices would much prefer to avoid playing an extra series, if possible.
And that's just the start of it.
SAN DIEGO - San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado celebrates after hitting a walk-off home run during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on July 5, 2024. Photo: Denis Poroy-USA TODAY Sports
NL Wild Card Picture A Mess Too
Thanks to a remarkable run by the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, even those two teams aren't necessarily eliminated from grabbing a first-round bye. Since both teams sit just four and five games back of the Dodgers, respectively, were either team to catch the first place Dodgers in the NL West, their record would necessarily put them within striking distance of either the Phillies or Brewers.
Then again, they're also no guarantee to make the postseason at all. Despite some late-inning woes, the New York Mets are just three games behind the Atlanta Braves, and five behind the Padres. One hot week from the Mets and a cold stretch from San Diego, and the playoff picture could swing dramatically.
While Fangraphs gives the Mets just a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs, stranger things have happened. Stranger things have happened this season.
The Diamondbacks host the Dodgers for a four-game series starting Friday evening, setting up the start of what's sure to be a dramatic month to determine who plays in October, and where. It's the same story in the American League.
American League Playoff Race Also Tight
The New York Yankees lead the American League East by just a game and a half, the Cleveland Guardians blew a massive lead to the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, and there are still four teams within six games of the third Wild Card position.
Heck, even the Houston Astros division lead over the flailing Mariners is down to just four.
No race is decided, and while the Astros sit a clear third in the race for the top two spots, home field advantage throughout the AL side of the playoffs is also up for grabs. The Yankees, with the best record, are on pace to win just 94 games, showing just how much parity there is in baseball this season. Outside of the White Sox, of course.
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It's been years since MLB has had a race this tight in both leagues, with the final month set to determine nearly every aspect of postseason seeding. Should be fun to watch.