Mina Kimes Thinks QB Play Is At An All-Time High. Is She Right?
Mina Kimes thinks that the NFL is in pretty good shape right now, but Scott Van Pelt would disagree.
Earlier today, Kimes responded to a tweet from a fan who said that the NFL as a whole was in a state of emergency because so many teams are bad. Kimes provided a counterpoint, saying that there have been more one-score games at the midway point of this season than any prior year.
While that was a good point, Van Pelt argued against her stance rather effectively. Highlighting the Minnesota Vikings’ 12-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, he pointed out that not all one-score games are entertaining. (Kevin Clark, another ESPN worker, disagreed with Kimes as well).
He followed up his stance by asking Kimes if she thought there were a large number of bad teams in the NFL. That’s a fair question, seeing as though 12 teams have three or less wins through Week 10, and an additional 6 teams have a mere four wins.
Kimes responded to this question, but not directly. Instead, she said that quarterback play is at an all-time high.
I don’t see an immediate correlation to Van Pelt’s question here, but let's just take a look at her statement. Is quarterback play truly at never-before-seen levels?
I’ll put my cards on the table and say while I think that it's been good, I think Kimes has too high of an opinion of what we’ve seen from QBs this year.
What The (Basic) Stats Say
Without getting too deep in the weeds on all the quarterback stats in existence, let's just look at three basic ones: passing yards, passing touchdowns, and interceptions. There’s more you can analyze here and there are tons of nuances that go into evaluating a quarterback’s performance. But if we assess these three statistics as benchmarks for quarterback play, we should get a decent idea of how this year’s players are going.
Passing Yards: Most people would argue that if you throw for 4,000 yards in a year, you’ve done well. This season, there are nine quarterbacks who, if they match their yards per game (YPG) averages thus far this season for the rest of the year, have a reasonable chance of eclipsing 4,000 yards for the year (that number could fluctuate either way). If this projection holds, that means it would be the 8th-lowest number of 4,000-yard passers in the past 10 years (tied with the 2022 season).
INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 15: Quarterback Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts greets Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots after the game at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 15, 2009 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts won the game 35-34. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Passing TDs: Using the benchmark of 25 touchdowns as a good year (while also going back to 2014), there are 13 quarterbacks that have a shot at exceeding that mark. Should it play out like this (no guarantee it does), that would put them in a four-way for third place. If even one of them doesn’t get there, that would put them in seventh place.
Interceptions: This one is a little harder to gauge, but I will say that this year’s unfortunate leaders in this category are all regular starters, and seven starters have a 1+-pick per game pace. Plus, everyone in the top 10 (except for the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love) has started all of their team’s games this season.
Again, this is not meant to be an exhaustive argument, and I don’t pretend to know as much as Kimes (she’s highly talented at what she does).
However, I would say that the stats don't support her argument that well. The second half of the season could change that, but a lot would have to go right for that to happen.
Even If You Go On Raw Talent, This Year Doesn’t Stand Out As Anything Special
Even a decade ago, we had a slew of guys that are Hall of Fame worthy that were playing like beasts: Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Peyton and Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, etc. Some of those guys are still playing now, and about five of them (Brady, the Mannings, Rodgers and Roethlisberger) are locks to go to Canton.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 16: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs shakes hands with Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills after the game at Arrowhead Stadium on October 16, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. Buffalo defeated Kansas City 24-20. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
For this year, the Hall of Fame locks/near locks are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Wilson (a fringe contender at the moment) and Rodgers - though he’s sucked this year). Then you’ve got CJ Stroud, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert to create a formidable middle of the pack. So I guess that the talent disparity is similar and maybe slightly better.
But even then, the stats for this year do not make me quick to agree with Kimes’ assertion either. Even when you account for all these talented quarterbacks, the stats right now don’t show me that they are making any kind of history.
Kimes is right to say that quarterback play right now is solid. But it’s also not the best the league has ever seen.